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Saturday 4 April 2020 preview below

Update: Tough races coming up- hopefully you are on the quaddies.

Update 5.44 Quick Thinker is going to be well suited to this testing track. The harder they go the better his chances. Nice win! 

Update: Suggested Sydney quaddie for $21.60 for 10% yes 10% of $5120

R7     1, 6
R8    1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 13
R9     1, 5, 8, 10, 11, 12, 17, 18, 19
R10   2, 6

Suggested Caulfield quaddie for $30 for 10% Yes 10% of $1121

R6    4, 6, 8

R7    1, 4, 8, 9, 11
R8    3, 4, 5, 7
R9    1, 3, 8, 10, 14

Randwick race 5 another tough race. Plenty are finding the going tough. Will post suggested quaddies soon.

Caulfield race 4 no bet- too even

Update: 13.Maia Nebula is worth a small ew bet

Update: Bobbing is the Punt at $20k for the Boys get Paid syndicate. Nothing to recommend late.

Update: Caulfield Confidence 4/5 race 2 Good Idea $1.65 H2H to beat Stars Of Carrum Yes

Update 2.39 p.m. Confidence 4/5  race 2 Randwick Grand Piano $1.55 H2H to beat Kubrick who is drifting and not suited to a heavy track. Grand Piano looks ready to win and handles a wet track well. RP $1.20 Yes and Entente mentioned as the upsettter in selections led all the way at $16

Update 2.20 Caulfield race 1 Forever Free can’t be backed with any confidence on a heavy track with her action and has drifted quite a bit. Tricky race so pass.

Update: 2.06 pm Big drifter is Rulership. Tricky race best watched and we can see how that track is.

Update: 11.10 a.m. Saturday. Next update just before race 1 at Randwick at about 2.08 p.m. I’ll also post recommended quaddies later in the day.

Quality bet is:

Randwick Race 7 6.Quick Thinker $7.50 $2.30 2 units eachway with the Value Staking Plan

Bet of the day Randwick Race 10 2.Rubisaki $1.95 FF 1st $2.70

Value bet of the day Randwick Race 7 6.Quick Thinker $7.50 Ff Yes $8.70 

Speed Map Special Caulfield Race 2 7.Good idea $5 Ff 4th bad idea!

I’ll update the Caulfield selections by noon tomorrow after scratchings which there should be a few of with the heavy track now.

Update 1.20 p.m. No Quality bets so far as I want to see what that track will do tomorrow. Next update by 6 p.m. today and again at noon Saturday and pre-race comments as well. Caulfield has been downgraded to a heavy 8 Friday afternoon and with 1-5mm of rain forecast tomorrow, it isn’t going to dry out! So I’ll be looking for proven wet trackers, with the right action and form.

Randwick

I can’t suggest any early bets as the current Soft 5 track at Randwick is forecast to get between 10 and 25mm of rain before tomorrow morning, so it could well suit fit horses who have the form, fitness  and galloping action to handle a slog.

I’ll post another update by 2 p.m. along with Heads Up.

Race 1

Confidence:2/5

1.Rulership has very strong for for this with a close second at Caulfield just beaten by Hanseatic and 4th was Tagaloa. That was after leading all the way here on debut here over 1000m. He has had a freshener and had a quiet trial since. Drawn to lead or be right on it and a wet track should be ok with first use of it. RP $3.40, $3.20 FF

Dangers:

2.Not An Option trialed up very well recently and a wet track will suit. May be better left handed but looked ok in his trial this way round.

5.Doubtland  ran on stylishly late to win on debut on a Soft track. Will be coming hard late.

4.Damaged  won in fast time last start but has an action for a better track and drawn wide.

Race 2

Confidence:3/5

3.Reloaded  maps to get an ideal run and is very well placed under the Set Weights scale. Top third to Castelvecchio last start in a Group 1 and I think he is a top bet, so back in class against these and rock hard fit, he does look the one. Wet track ok. RP $1.90, $2.00 FF

Dangers:

7.Entente ( By Dundeel) led all the way last start in easier company but has the ideal action for a slog in a bog, so if  they ran 1.07 or worse in the first race for the 1100m, he could be the upsetter at big odds.

5.Grand Piano two strong wins and a Soft to heavy will suit.

2.Promotions in good form and won with a grinding finish last start on a Soft 7 track.

Race 3

The Speed map shows a moderate to even tempo even with the big field

Confidence: 2/5

1.Bobbing gets in very well here under set weights. He rates 18 points higher than any other runner which is only 1.5kgs more than most of the main dangers. He is a big horse that will get back so the draw is no concern, just the tempo. That should be good enough for him to get the last run at power of these. 4 wins from 6 starts on a Soft track.  RP $3.20, $3.90 FF

Dangers:

6.Julian Rock  will handle a slog with his action and his form backs that up with 2wins and 2 placings on Soft and heavy tracks. Trialed up nicely for this and early money for him.

2.Two Big Fari  beat Bobbing last start, ( just) and will be on pace, so the tempo could prove all the difference between these two. Good wet track action.

7.Ligulate has a very good wet track action and won well last start second up so peaking nicely for this.

Race 4

The speed map shows Dorothy Of Oz crossing over to lead and a few looking to be handy. Moderate to even tempo likely.

Confidence:3/5

2.Paradee was an unlucky third on a soft track at Sandown and has won twice since. her last win was top as she was 3w on the pace and still won strongly in a good speed rating ( Damien Oliver’s comment about her win can be heard here ) and her action says a slog should be ok. She has a very strong shoulder and 2000m should be ideal against these. RP $2.80, $3.30 Ff

Dangers:

3.Collette has been very impressive with her winning her last two. Races like a stayer so the 2000m should be ideal now. But if it is a slog race, then her action says she is beatable. RP $4.00

13.Maia Nebula won drawing away at Hawkesbury on a heavy 8 track, then ran third to Collette on a Good track last start with a good grinding finish and will be ideally suited to slog with her strong staying Zabeel blood in her.

10.Betcha Flying has form on a soft track but action says better suited to a dry track.

 

Race 5

Confidence: 1/5

2.The Chosen One won the Group 2 Herbert Power over 2400m at Caulfield and after three runs back he is ready to strike winning form. Handles a wet track well and James jumps on which is a good plus. RP $5

Dangers:

5.Carif is racing strongly in good fields and peaking now fourth up.

11.Young Star third up will be fitter and is a nice place chance.

3.Gaelic Chieftan  fitter now and won this race last year third up as well.

 

Race 6

Good early speed and an even tempo likely.

Confidence: 1/5

8.Ole Kirk was an unlucky third last start over 1400m and looked good winning on debut. 1400m suits from a good draw. RP $5.00

Dangers:

1.Marmaragan good third in the Slipper and drawn to get all favours. 1400m on a wet track should be ok.

7.Aim is going to relish 1400m but probably not a heavy track, so the better it is the better his chances.

6.Hollyfield  won well last week and has a good wet track action and is very fit for 1400m.

 

Race 7

Confidence:3/5 and Quick Thinker is now a Quality bet on a heavy track.

With the Heavy 8 track now, it is going to be a slog which really does suit Quick Thinker

6.Quick Thinker  is peaking perfectly for this with a strong slogging win on a heavy track last week and that race has proven to be a strong guide to the derby winner. The last three Derby winners have all won the Tulloch Stakes and backed up to win. He is trained by a master in Murray Baker along with Andrew Forsman who bypassed the NZ Derby and set him for this. The way he gets his head down and has that high knee action, means he has what it needs to win this in a  slog. I’ve rated him $4 as there are serious questions over his main dangers in a slog over 2400m. RP $4.00, $8 and $2.50

Dangers:

1.Castelvecchio was a decisive winner in Rosehill Guineas running the fastest last 600m of the race in a very good speed rating for the day. It took one of the world’s best horses, Lys Gracieux, ( third Te Akau Shark) to run him down and he was easily second. His dad, Dundeel ( Known as Itsadundeel) absolutely bolted in, in this race in 2013 and he handles a wet track well.  James McDonald rode Dundeel then and he rides Castelvecchio in this as well. He is better ridden handy like he was in the Cox Plate and last start in the Rosehill Guineas, and from about 5th or 6th, he should be able to pick his moment to pounce, probably at the top of the rise in the straight and be too good for these. Query over 2400m in a slog now.

2.Shadow Hero  has the better record against Castelvecchio but Castelvecchio has shown stronger form since he was beaten by Shadow Hero since last October. The better the track, the better his chances of beating Castelvecchio. Query over 2400m in a slog now.

3.Warning has been set for this nicely but last start here behind Castelvecchio he hung in from the turn and proved a difficult ride. Maybe he is better left handed as he showed when winning the Victorian Derby. $5 is too short against these. Query over 2400m in a slog now.

Race 8

Confidence: 1/5

2.Pierata almost beat Nature strip here on a heavy track last year and is a definite improve from his fresh up run. Wider draw may help. RP $6

Dangers:

1.Nature Strip could get his own way in front again and if he does and the inside is ok, can win.

13.Loving Gaby is tough and with a decent run could do it.

9.Exceedance fitter now and a a wet track will help.

Race 9

The speed map shows a few going forward with most looking to be midfield so an even tempo likely but not fast so all runners should be suited. Any bias will influence betting as well.

Confidence:1/5 in an open race 

12.Imaging second up last start won very strongly beating a few subsequent winners including race rival Cascadian who was very good winning last week. he has an ideal action for a slog and his wet track form reads 8 starts, 4 wins and 3 placings. Drawn out but has the tactical speed to get over 3 wide with cover in the first half of the field and third up from the Waller ( won 6 of the last 12 Doncasters) stable with just 53.5kgs, looks a good eachway chance at good odds. RP $7, $13 and $4

Dangers:

1.Melody Belle Ran a top third last start in the All Star Mile after getting held up at a vital time. She has an outstanding record on rain affected tracks and she has the early pace to get over handy and if Opie can slot her in even 3w with cover, she has to be a solid chance even giving weight this time.

8.Super Seth got too far back last start after snagging from a wide draw. They didn’t go hard and he found the line nicely late. Drawn to land in the first four here and is right in this.

18.Nettoyer put up a top run here fresh up when coming from last to get up and win in a Group 3 with 56kgs, 3kgs over the minimum. Then second up in the Group 1 Ranvet over 2000m she got back off a moderate tempo and ran on well for fourth behind Verry Ellegant at WFA with 57kgs. She ran a very good 6th in the Group 1 Epsom here on a Good 4 track last October and is better suited to a Soft track. Dropping to 51.5kgs is a big plus and she should land around midfield or just behind it and get her chance to come at these late and be an upset chance.

19.Brandenburg drops to a light weight as well after racing well in very good 3yo company. Should get a good run and be a chance on a soft track.

5.Mr Sea Wolf good third fresh up and a wet track over 1600m does suit with James up.

Race 10

Confidence: 3/5

2.Rubisaki has won won 6 from 8 starts and just been beaten in the other two. She relished a wet track and gets in very well under the set weight conditions. Drawn to settle 3 back on the inner and as long as the inside isn’t quicksand by this time of day, she should win. RP $1.80, $2.10 FF Rating depends on how the track is playing.

 

Caulfield

Race 1

Tricky race to start with the two favourites unlikely to handle a heavy track but hard to find something that can- market movers may help narrow that down.

10.Forever Free led all the way on debut over 1100m and on Good track. Her action says she needs a decent surface so is no value at $2.00

1.Ideas Man the rider said he didn’t handle the soft ground so on a heavy track is no value at $4.60 Ff

Race 2

Confidence:2/5

7.Good Idea looks well placed here after two top runs since the one eyed blinker has gone on. He was caught wide at The valley early, got 2nd outer and was too tough. Then in the $400k Adelaide Cup 3200m, he did work wide early then got handy one off, led on the turn and was run down by the smart King Of Leogrance who was a $2.20 favourite. He is a big fella and needs to be ridden on pace as he gets a bit unsettled among others. Drawn out a bit so should be able to slide forward and be on Inverloch’s backside and with the 3kgs weight advantage and his ability on a wet track with a good action for it, be the one for Inverloch to keep out. RP $3.80, $4.80

Races 3 to 5 are very open and market movers will be a good lead on the heavy track.

Race 6

The speed map shows a fast early tempo and may set up for a closer off a cosy run.

Confidence:3/5

6.Diamond Effort won impressively here on a Soft track fresh up and has won both of her races since. She has a good wet track action and is bred to handle them. The wider draw is ok as the rider said she is better outside others rather than in among them. She should be able settle near the pace and with the inside likely to be off by this time of day, and hit the lead somewhere turning in and be very hard to run down as she has that desire to win and is rock hard fit. She does drop back to 1000m but on a heavy track, with her natural speed and ability to handle a wet track, I’m not concerned. RP $2.50, $2.70 FF

Dangers:

4.Parsifal has trialled up very well and handles a wet track ok but not sure on a heavy 9. Has won fresh up has won 7 from 17. Looks the main danger.

8.Miss Iano is a good mare and is ready to fire fresh up and handles a wet track well.

Race 7

4.Beehunter  last start charged home for a strong win with a good wet track action over 1400m. 1600m on a heavy track suits as long as they go hard enough.

11.Tooradin  really extended well late to win two starts back over 1400m on a soft track. Last start   was a bit slow away, got back but went past them all easily with an ideal wet track action. 1600m will suit now. Has enough early speed to land in the first 6 from the inside draw.

8.Russian Camelot maps to get back on the inner off a moderate tempo. He may be looking for more ground also.

Race 8

7.Bentoite did ok in a Group 1 last start so the drop back to a BM90 race makes her a solid chance here. Good run before that behind the smart Sylvia’s Mother when held up late. Very good record on slow and heavy tracks and looks well placed.

5.My Pendant  is a nice mare and with the right run here, looks the main danger. She won well at Flemington on a heavy 8 track over 1400m and has won 3 from 6 on wet tracks.

4.Exasperate won strongly here last start showing plenty of grit. He has good wet track form and has won 2 from 3 here. Gets 2kgs off.

Race 9

10.Yourdeel  ran on much better last start from back and wide with cover in the best last 200m of the race. Drops in class and with the right run, can win on a wet track which is no bother.

For quaddies include: 1-14-3-8

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!