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Melody Belle tough as and Monday preview

Good morning,

Update 2.04 p.m. Ballarat preview based on a heavy track is here with a couple of good Head to head bets and value bets.

Gee, the more you look at the Doncaster replay , the more you have to feel Melody Belle put up one of the runs of the day. She was caught midfield 4 wide in the open, improved wide before the turn, led 200m out carrying topweight, was headed 100m out and still gave her all to hold on for fourth!

I bet the TAB bookies weren’t too upset, especially as they were offering four places before lock down. The Boys Get Paid Punters Club were in for $120k collect if she had held on for third too. An indication of how much she was punted by NZ punters was that she was backed into less than $5 for a win FF and was around $7 elsewhere, and closer to $3 for a place and was under $2 here.

Luke Kemey’s, who did a terrific job of running the Punters Club after we got off to  a slow start, saved on Star Of The Seas for a place to get $18k back. Earlier, Pierata just missed grabbing third place to almost get another $50k return. The GOAT was keen on Niedorp at Doomben and $10k at $2.50 was never in doubt. $5,000 was put on Quick Thinker as my main bet for the day and I’m sure with all of the BGP couch jockeys in the Punters Club riding him down the straight, was the main reason why he held on.

Earlier in the week, I told Luke that I was very keen on Castelvecchio in the Derby on the likely Soft 5 or 6 track. But when I found out on Saturday morning they had enough rain to put it into the Heavy range, I couldn’t have him as that would negate his acceleration, especially over 2400m. Shadow Lord was always going to struggle in that ground and I couldn’t have Warning who hung last start right handed and a hanging horse on a  heavy track is just a combo you don’t want. So with Quick Thinker ticking a lot of boxes with an ideal heavy track action, winning the Tulloch Stakes when the last three winners of the Derby had won that race, his breeding and trainer/ rider combination, made him a top chance.

I’ll be doing my best to find a best bet, value bet and Speed map special, and any Head to Heads from Australia today. I’ll post that by 2 p.m. I’ll also post a recommended quaddie as well. We’ve had a good run with those. You just need the odd roughie or two, like Nettoyer, to get a decent return to cover the losses and smaller collects. Ballarat looks like one of those that could pay well with a couple favourites looking beatable.

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Good luck,

Neil

Enquiries to Neil at formpro@formpro.co.nz or text or phone 027 352 6402

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!