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Monday preview below

Update 3.07 p.m. No further bets

Update 2.00 p.m. next update by 3.30 p.m. One Quality bet 

I’ve been through all the fields and the earlier races are lacking form to get too confident about, but the Head to Heads in race 7 and 8 look the best chances at value.

Bet of the Day Race 7 4.Rylstone $6.50 FF Quality bet 2 units eachway Missed after being backed right in.

Value bet of the day Race 8 10.Cailloux $6.50 Ff Missed

Best multi are the two head to heads in races 7 and 8 $10 returns $32.30

Race 7 Rylstone $1.70 to beat All Fairy Prince No   and Race 8 Cailloux $1.90 v Kurocaine yes

Suggested quaddie race 6   $24 for 20%

R6   2, 4, 8, 9
R7    4, 11
R8    9, 10, 11
R9     2, 3, 5, 8, 9

Ballarat

Race 1

9.Rose Of Sebring by good wet sire Sebring ( 15% heavy track Strike Rate ) and ran on strongly late for third on debut when only getting out with 250m to go and has a good wet track action. Dropping back to 1200m will suit.

6.Latin Affair by good wet track sire Nicconi ( 18% win strike rate on heavy) and ran a  good sixth on debut at Caulfied with a good wet track action.)

8.Rainbiel sire Toronado has only had 1 win from 42 starters on a heavy track and action is not as good as the above two for a heavy track. Won her trail and likely to lead but heavy 10 likely to stop it.

Head to head runners inconclusive with no form on Shadow Vixen – watch market maybe for any indication. 

10.Shadow Vixen by Foxwedge ( 11% heavy track Strike Rate ) average jumpout run

13.Outline last had his chance when there was rain on the day and it was chopping out a bit.

Race 2

Head to Head Teraras may be the one here – watch any late market movement though

Teraras $1.90 H2H ( Sire Toronado has only had 1 win from 42 starters on a heavy track good third last start 3w on the pace and has better wet track action than Mark The Horse.

Mark The Horse (Sire 7% DR on heavy  and best results on dry tracks. ) Action says a drier track will suit too.

Race 3

H2H not enough form to go on

Race 4

H2H

Rising Archie $1.90 v Steel Sedoka $1.80

Not enough info.

Race 5

H2H

Holburt $1.70 v Skob Boom $2.05

Holburt has handled a heavy track well and if ready fresh, which we can tell if the money comes for him, he can beat Skob Boob

Race 6

2.Call Me Agent has a good wet track action and is in good form.

9.Dariljon very good heavy track form and distance ideal.

H2H Mont Agel $1.85 v Sirius Deal $1.85 and even chances

Mont Agel has won on a heavy track twice with an ideal heavy track action. Top run last start.

8.Sirius Deal  by Dundeel and has a good wet track action

 

Race 7

4.Rylstone ideal wet track action and chased well last start on a heavy track for second so very fit now 4th up. and the heavier the track the better for his chances.

5.Minola has a drier track action and sire only 8% SR so no value at $2.50

H2H

Rylstone $1.70 v All Fairy Prince $2.05

4.Rylstone ideal wet track action and chased well last start on a heavy track for second so very fit now 4th up. and the heavier the track the better for his chances.

11.Phonzia  has a good wet track action and could upset.

8.All Fairy Prince sire All Too Hard 8% heavy track SR and although action is ok for a slow track but in its last start in January on a heavy 8 led and was run down for 3rd in a weakish maiden. 2000m is a query too. The heavier the track the worse are his chances.

9.Disenchanted 2nd on a heavy track when leading on the turn and run down late when out in the better part of the track. Action and breeding suggests he will struggle in the ground.

Race 8

10.Cailloux ran on well last start for third on a Soft track over 1100m.  ran 3rd on a Soft track as well. Sire is Starcraft who has had 35 individual winners on heavy tracks.

H2H

Kurocaine $1.80 v Cailloux $1.90

10.Cailloux ran on well last start for third on a Soft track over 1100m and has a better wet track action than Kurocaine. Sire is Starcraft who has had 35 individual winners on heavy tracks.

Kurocaine bolted in last start on a dry track with a good DRY track action. battling 5th on a wet track in January in a weak maiden. Sire has had one win from 27 starts on a heavy track.

Race 9

H2H

Star Finder $2.20 v Highway to Success $1.60

Both have wet track form. If money comes fro Star Finder, he could beat him home.

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!