Home » Results » Saturday April 11 2020 preview below

Saturday April 11 2020 preview below

A tough day of punting with just Addeyb doing the job strongly. I’ll be reviewing races at both meetings for any future winners and will post that by Monday night. I’ll post any Sunday specials by 2 p.m.

Randwick Race 10

6.Winter Bride is a nice eachway chance to get us out in the last. If she can get a run with cover, she will come at these late.

Randwick

Race 9 2.Nettoyer looks bright and ready to win again

Randwick race 8 2.Addeyb looks better than last time and should lead or be 2nd outer and be the one to beat. The head to head with Danon Premium looks worth taking at $1.65

Race 7 Randwick 1.Mustajeer looks very fit and should get the right run and is a good eachway chance.

Suggested Caulfield quaddie: $42 for 10%

R6   245781415
R7    78910
R8     58111216
R9      2510

Suggested Sydney Quaddie for $33.60 for 10%

R7      1245678
R8     2
R9     23791317
R10    13679121416

Doomben race 6 3.Ballistic Boy is the best horse in the race and the track is playing right for him. He should land about 6th outer, get to the outside and use his powerful strides to get over these. RP $2.20, $2.80 Ff  Looks ready. 3rd after getting his chance.

Randwick race 6 1.Probabeel is ready to win and will be very hard to beat.

Doomben race 6 3.Ballistic Boy is the best horse in the race and the track is playing right for him. He should land about 6th outer, get to the outside and use his powerful strides to get over these. RP $2.20, $2.80 Ff

Caulfield pass on race 4- too open

Randwick race 5 4.Dawn Passage should get the tempo to suit. Cosmic Force looks ready to win too so maybe back both to win.

Caulfield Race 3 6.Heighton Station good eachway chance in this

Randwick Race 4 5.Swats That will get back but that will be ok. Good eachway chance.

Morphetville Race 2 Bramfield is getting out and Addato has been backed in. She just needs to get out and balanced and she will be very hard to keep out. 4th after a getting every chance.

Race 2 Caulfield – another tricky race – save it for Bramfield coming up at 3.11. I’ll post before her race.  The money is coming for 7.Adatto but with 3 wins from 43 starts, I’m not concerned.

Race 3 Randwick

Tough race to be confident in. A few horses being backed in. Pass

Pass on race 1 Caulfield

Race 2

H2H Indy Car $1.85 looks the bet Yes – easily covered after winning well from off pace.

Indy Car big win fresh and bred to handle a soft to heavy track. Strong and unlucky fourth second up after winning on debut last campaign.

Knickpoint has won on a heavy 9 but got out to the better strip wider in the last 200m. With Indy Car having better form and action on a heavy track, he should have him covered.

Yao Dash big drifter.

Randwick race 1

Untamed is a big drifter. Fayerra best backed and the head to head is on her and Wheelhouse and based on the market, Fayerra can beat him home – worth a small interest. But not a race I’m that confident about so suggest watching it to see how slow that track is.

Update 1.15 p.m. next update just before race 1 around 1.33 p.m.

Suggested Sydney Quaddie for $33.60 for 10%

R7      1245678
R8     2
R9     23791317
R10    13679121416

Update 8.30 a.m. The scratchings won’t be through until 11 a.m. our time so I’ll post an update by 1.15 p.m. with any head to heads. Randwick must have got some rain last night as it has come up a heavy 8 this morning. There will be live updates before Randwick races

With the heavy 8 at Randwick now the best head to head has to be Addeybb $1.95 to beat Danon Premium

and the multi of the day is Bramfield $2.15 to win with that head to head above $10 returns $40.80

Bet of the day Morphettville Race 2 1.Bramfield $2.15 FF

Value bet of the day Randwick Race 6 1.Probabeel $3.70 FF

Speed map special Randwick Race 8 2.Addeybb $4.20 FF 1st $3.80

Sneaky of the Day Randwick Race 9 2.Nettoyer $8 FF

Aaron P won this week’s $20 multi and it will be on Bramfield and Probabeel to return $160

Steve L won last week’s and I forgot to put his bet on so I’ve asked him what he would like it on and he has gone for a 4 leg place multi: Newcastle Race 1 Little Jerry, Morphettville Race 2 Sasun, Caulfield Race 3 Heyington Station, Randwick Race 7 Mustajeer $328.84 return

Update 5.05 p.m.

No further bets as I want to see how the tracks come up tomorrow morning for Randwick and Caulfield

Update 2 p.m. Friday ( next Update by 6 p.m. Friday )

Another Quality bet for Saturday: Morphettville Race 2 1.Bramfield 4.3 units at $2.15

The earlier one was Randwick Race 6 1.Probabeel 3 units at $3.70 FF

 

Randwick early preview ( next update 2 p.m. Friday )

Track Soft 7 ( Now Soft 6 as at 5 p.m. Thursday ) as at Thursday morning. 6 to 20mm forecast for today ( Thursday)   and  1 to 4mm Friday. So it could get to a Heavy 8 as it was last week.

I’ve gone through all of the replays of the main Queen Elizabeth runners and detailed that below.

Morphetville

Race 2

Confidence: 4/5 Quality bet 4.3 units at $2.15 FF

1.Bramfield last start relaxed much better than she has been doing and got back off a moderate tempo. The rider had to get going on the tight course and was pushed wide when improving on the turn. But once she challenged 200m out, she just left them too it as she was able to conserve her energy earlier on. Her speed ratings in her last two races have been excellent and fourth up in a race that is no harder than her last, she will very likely be allowed to just find her own feet early on an relax again, and with an even tempo likely, she can get a track into it and unleash her powerful finishing burst and get over these. Has won 9 from just 24 races. RP $1.50, $2.15 FF

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

1.Postcode led all the way to win last start on a heavy track and is a strong horse. Breeding suggests 1600m will suit as well and looks the one to beat. RP $2.70, $2.80 FF

Dangers:

2.Untamed found the line well for second last start and will be fitter for this.

3.Azaly bred to relish 1600m and nice recent trial

Race 2

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race

1.Yao Dash is the best performed runner and trialled up very well recently. Wasn’t right fresh up. He beat Funstar last campaign leading all the way. Soft track should be ok. RP $4.50

Dangers:

2.Hilo good win fresh up and solid third last start. 1400m ideal fitter third up and should get an ideal run

9.Indy Car  will be suited by a decent tempo and will be charging late.

Race 3

The speed map shows a moderate to even tempo in the big field and will suit runnes in the first half.

Confidence:1/5

12.Electric Girl has been in great form, is nicely weighted  and maps to get the ideal run. RP $4.70

Dangers:

4.Animate should land in the first half of the field and be right in this.

10.Asharani big win last start but gets back.

Race 4

The speed map shows a fast early pace and plenty of pressure so sets up for a closer.

Confidence: 2/5

5.Swats That looked very good winning on debut in the second best speed rating all day which is always a good indicator of a very good 2yo. She has a beautiful action that should handle a soft track. She maps to get back off the decent tempo so looks well placed to storm over these with the nice weight. RP $5, $9.50 FF

Dangers:

1.Dame Giselle drawn to get a good run.

2.Away Game  has the best form but has been up a long time.

 

Race 5

The speed map shows a fast early speed and at least even from there suiting off pace runners.

Confidence: 2/5

4.Dawn Passage closed off very strongly last start from the back in best closing sectionals. They ran along at an even pace which allowed him to do that. This time, he has drawn wide but with most runners looking to either lead or be close to it, he just needs to snag back and get onto the back of the right horse to track into it, and being fitter now he can win. RP $5, $8 FF

Dangers:

1.Cosmic Force looked ready to win after a very impressive trial. James is confident of a winning run.

2.Elev Eleven  rates well here and drawn to get n ideal run. Trialled well.

9.Flit won really well here fresh up and is likely to snag and get a last go at them.

Race 6

Confidence: 3/5 Early Quality bet 3 units at $3.70 FF

1.Probabeel last start kept closing on Shout The Bar in a sprint home on the Soft 7 track. Her best form has been on soft or better tracks but two starts back at Rosehill on a heavy 9 where they ran 1.13.6 for 1200m earlier in the day, she came from 3 lengths behind Quick Thinker ( who won his next two starts )  on the turn and beat him home by 1.5L. Plus her last 600m of 36.05 was the best in the field and significantly better than the Group 1 Coolmore race run at a significantly faster tempo but a slower race time, a very strong indicator on a heavy track. Plus she was ridden out of her comfort zone then when ridden up early to get handy on the predicted slow tempo. This time she will be ridden back according to trainer Jamie Richards and that will suit her much better. The negative is, if they walk it but on a testing track, that will help them come back quicker. The better the track the better her chances but based on that run two starts back, she is going well enough to still handle a heavy track and beat these. RP $2.50, $3.70 FF She is paying between $4 and $4.50 overseas but as we saw last week with Melody Belle, being a popular Kiwi runner, she is and will be well backed on the NZ TAB, so you could put half your bet on today and wait till she drifts closer to race time and then get the other half on.

Dangers: 

4.Collette  won very well last start but the speed rating and field indicated this is definitely a step up in class. The plus is she will handle the ground and should get a good run and is the one Probabeel has to run down.

2.Shout The Bar  won the Vinery last start leading all the way but she got all favours in front getting home in 34.71, which was the second fastest L600 all day. So the step to 2400m against fillies that have been set for this distance, does make her a query.

12.Stick Em Up closed off strongly for fifth last start behind Collette in the second fastest last 600m of the race and even the commentator said “ Stick Em Up got home well – nice Oaks trial.” Bred to see it out so is an upsetter.

Race 7

Confidencce:2/5

1.Mustajeer has been racing like 3200m will suit as he has been racing against very good horses finding the line strongly. Giving weight to all but should do nothing in running and be the one to beat. RP $4, $5

Dangers:

2.Young Rascal got all favours last start in an on pace race. Will be improved by that but $2.50 is hard to take.

7.Azzuro  has three times over 3200m and a wet track is no bother.

13.Corncrake  races like a stayer with his head down and relaxed action and is in great form in on a light weight. Soft 6 or better is ok and drawn to do nothing.

Race 8

The speed map shows Addeyub, Gailo Chop, Melody Belle  and Imaging going forward with a few looking to settle of those ones and a moderate to even tempo likely suiting runners in the first half.

Confidence:2/5

2.Addeybb has won 8 from 16 races and showed his will to win and staying abilities when he was headed by Verry Elleegant in the straight but came back to draw away on the line- fourth was Nettoyer who won the Doncaster last Saturday. Then to frank that form, Verry Elleegant bolted in next up in the Group 1 Tancred. When he won the Wolverton in June, he had the toughest run of all 7th 3w opn, but put them away 200m out. His action is ideal for a testing track and he doesn’t need to lead to win and may well take a sit here then turn it into a staying test by going hard about 500m out and use that staying power to hold them out again. He has improved since that last win as well. RP $3.70, $4.40 FF

Dangers:

1.Danon Premium  is from Japan and has strong Group form there beating Lys Gracieux, the Cox Plate winner, over 2000m on a good track.  He has worked well since being over here and had drawn to land about 5th or 6th as he normally jumps evenly, despite some maps having him mapped back. All of his races have been on Good tracks or close to it, so the query is a soft track. His action says a soft track should be ok but if it gets to a testing heavy 8 or wore, you just couldn’t be confident. He has the strongest form going into this. If he is giving Addeybb 5 lengths on the turn, I don’t think he can run him down on a soft to heavy track.

4.Te Akau Shark put in a very good effort last start when 3w in the open and ran on well for third. He ran a top third in the Cox Plate so the 2000m will suit. He has synthetic hoof filler first time to get the nails for the plates to go into so it is not a concern. Maps to get back and with a nice track into, he should get his chance. If the centre and wider is an advantage, that will help his chances.

13.Melody Belle  put up a top effort last Saturday in the Doncaster carrying top weight and having the toughest run. She has won twice over 2000m in NZ against weaker fields than this. Ran a top 2nd at Flemington over 2000m in a Gr 1 from a wide draw. Drawn to get a good run and more of a place chance against these horses.

12.Verry Elleegant ran second to Addeybb after maybe going a bit early and simply being outstayed by him. Then she won the Tancred over 2400m with James on again but he has jumped off her onto Danon Premium. She handles a wet track really well and maps to get a good run. Nash is a patient rider and is likely to try and get the last go at them.

Race 9

The speed map shows at least an even tempo and should suit all runners and maybe closers as they could get midrace pressure.

Confidence:2/5

2.Nettoyer put in a huge run here last week to win the Doncaster on a good weight. This is easier being a fillies and mares race and she has won 4 from 8 on this track over this distance. Set Weights does favour her as she would be giving weight to all but one if it were a handicap. Speed looks good and she will get back and be storming home.RP $5

Dangers:

9.Positive Peace if she can get over from the wide draw and get a midrace rest, she has that will to win to be the one they all have to run down.

17.Funstar is a top filly but had her chance last start and drops back to 1600m which will suit. Drawn awkwardly so $2.80 is too short

13.Amangiri  did well fresh up and when fit, is very hard to outfinish.

Race 10

No obvious leader but a few drawn out that will look to get handy and a few on the inner that will look to do the same, so an even tempo likely in the big field.

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race

6.Winter Bride ran a top second in the Railway caught 3 wide in the open on the pace and was checked in the straight at Trentham when going ok and ran 5th. She has been freshend up and in a recent trial led all the way without being let go. Goes well fresh and a wet track is no trouble with a 5-2-2-1 record on a heavy track. Drawn wide and if she jumps well, could go forward with no obvious leader or look for cover if she misses it. I’d prefer to see her with cover off the pace as she can really unleash ridden like that. RP $7, $12

Dangers:

9.Manicure drawn to get every chance and if the inside is ok, should be in it.

3.Savatiano is a good mare as she showed when running second to The Bostonian here in a Group 1 on a Soft 6. Drawn to get all favours.

7.Fasika  tough mare and likely to forward and with a good run will be hard to run down.

Caulfield racing on a Soft 5

Race 1

An open race with a moderate tempo likely, so I’ll have a good look at the head to head option for the update.

Race 2

An open race with a fast tempo likely, so I’ll have a good look at the head to head option for the update.

 Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

6.Heyington Station should go forward from his barrier with not a lot of pace inside him and land 2nd outer and control the tempo. Fresh up was awkwardly away and ran on strongly for 4th And the second horse Wings Of Pastrami ran an excellent 2nd next up. 1400m looks ideal for this strong galloper. Good chance if he can jump cleanly and get 2nd outer ok. Rp $3.50, $4 ff

Race 4

An open race with a fast tempo likely, so I’ll have a good look at the head to head option for the update.

 Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

2.Relucent   from the Waller stable and good 4th behind Quick Thinker last start. Blinkers go on in the right race. RP $3.40, $3.50

Dangers:

3.Coin Collector  two strong seconds and is the obvious danger.

Race 6 First leg of the Quaddie

Confidence: 1/5

7.Wlliam Thomas  was travelling like a winner last start and just had no room. Just needs a fair crack at them to be right in this. RP $5

Dangers:

4-12-15-2

Race 7

Confidence:1/5 in an open race

13-10-7-9

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

5.Wild Planet  was well placed to win last start and bolted in. Right on top of his game here. Drawn to get all favours.

8.Seabrook  second up over 1400m looks ideal.

11.Manolo Blahniq ready now third up after a strong finish second up and goes well here.

Include 12 and 16

Race 9

Confidence:1/5 in an open race

In order: 5-8-10-6-1-7-11

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!