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Wednesday 15 April preview below

Update 4.45 p.m. No further quality bets. The full preview of the Randwick Quaddie quaddie ( No Geelong Quaddie as it it is a decent chance of not paying a hell of a lot- famous last words!) is below with a suggested quaddie. I’ll be  running a Terminating Pick 6 syndicate at Randwick this Saturday. There is no guaranteed pool but last week it got above $50k, so with a small go at it, we could get a good ride for our money. I’ll post details first thing tomorrow morning. ( For regulars, you will know the correct bank account number to deposit into ( the 01 account) Update: after seeing the legs it is likely to be struck by more than one 10% ticket so I’ll pass, but may do one for next Saturday – if so I will post on Wednesday night.

 

Suggested Randwick Quaddie for $42 for 10% No 3 out of 4

R5   2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9
R6    1, 3, 5
R7    1, 2, 3, 6, 12
R8     2, 4, 7, 10

Kensington early preview- no Quality bets so far. Next Update by 4.45 p.m. so I can see how the track is playing and any market movements.

Race 1

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race. Raison D’Etre looks to have good ability but just nervous about where she lands in running at that price of $1.80

8.Panna Cotta  1st $7 ran a fair 4th on debut in November but looked a bit weak. After a good break she has won her trials sitting near the pace and out wide and found the line like she wanted to win. Has early speed to get handy and with a good run, could be a nice eachway chance to start the day.

10.Raison D’Etre cost herself the win with a slow start on debut but impressed closing off strongly in fast closing sectionals. Looks the part from the Cummings stable. Negative is she is very likely to be behind midfield or wide in running which makes it hard to take the 41.95. In both of her trials she broke nearer the back than the front and in the big field, will need a good tempo and luck, and being  race full of green 2yos, it is hard to back her at even money or less  even with James up. Cross Over Nose band goes on to help keep her mouth shut or could just annoy her at the start and cause her to be back again- we will find out! Good lay at around $2

7.Our Flaming Moes won her trial well coming from 6th outer and was pushed out to win. Drawn wide so needs a good ride.

6.Missouri Waltz in her last trial drew wide, just inside race rival Panna Cotta, and sweated up quite a bit,. Sat wide on the lead with Panna cotta on her outer. Panna Cotta had her measure comfortably in the straight though. Drawn outside Panna Cotta so hard to see her turning the tables but could place at nice odds.

Race 2

Tricky race with many debut runners with trial form and some with race experience that could mean an advantage- so watch the marker, especially on the two below.

8.Ocean Emperor 1st $2.10 with a good win and was strong in the market  looked good leading all the way in his trial and a distant third was the Kiwi Not An Option who looked good over here winning. Drawn the inside and from a puntring stable, so watch the market.

Market Movers could be the lead. 9.Overlord 3rd but raced keenly  looked good rounding off his trial for fifth when never let go from the Waller stable.

Race 3

3.Welsh Legend 2nd $1.90 qu $10 two starts back was run down by Mugatoo who won the Listed Canberra cup next start and ran2nd to Young Rascal after that, so good form. Then last start drew wide, snagged back in the stronger field, and ran home strongly for fifth in good closing sectionals. Drawn out but can slide forward and get a good run 2nd outer and be the one to beat. Negative is the 1 win from 17 starts but she will find this easier than her last two starts and is very fit now.RP $3.50, $4

Dangers:

1.Costello 1st $4.30  strikes a winnable race but has to lump 61.5kgs. He gets the blinkers on now and he trialled up very well with them on 2nd outer relaxing much better and won it well. The trainer wants him to be ridden about 3rd or 4th to get him to chase them down and relax.

7.Night Witches won decisively last start with the blinkers coming off and  a nice run 6th outer and got a nice suck into it 300m and outsprinted them as they came home in 33.84 off the front, faster than some of the sprint races on the day. That was a weaker field than this but gets a nice weight advantage. Drawn to get a nice run maybe leading but likely to take a hold as she looks better following others. Found these too tough up in class off that average speed rating.

2.New Arrangement 3rd down in class and third up over a more suitable distance with james on. Watch the betting as he also has Welsh legend in.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

3.Bubbles Ball looks well placed here. Last start she was winding into it 200m out and got a decent bump that threw her off balance and she picked herself up and found the line hard again. The start before ran 4th in a strong field with Through The Cracks 2nd and he won the big final on Saturday. Maps to land about 4th or 5th behind at least an even speed with three others looking to lead or be on it. Strikes a moderate Fillies and mares race so should be able to drive over these late.

Dangers:

4.Got Your Six last start showed good early speed to lead, then took a sit with faster ones taking over, got out and won easily. The Speed Rating was the best on the day for the 1450m and she is fourth up. If the leaders are winning she will be hard to run down, but if they are coming off the fence and closing down the middle, Bubbles will have the advantage over the last 200 metres.

1.My Demetra 3rd up and fitter. Maps to get the right run.

Race 5 5.10 p.m. first leg

Confidence: 1/5 in a race with many chances. Watch the market movers and the pattern for the day should be well established by now. Tempo does favour on pace runners. 

5.Dio D’Oro  last start worked hard to get 2nd outer and went down fighting in a strong field. Best form on a heavy track but has winning form on a soft track. James jumps on and drawn to allow James to put her in a winning position. RP $4.50, $3.80 FF Drifted after the track became too firm for it.

Dangers in order:

6.Agassi ok run behind Dio D’Oro last start when trailing, held up, got out and didn’t lose any ground on leaders. better track suits and maps to be 2nd outer so with a moderate tempo, is a realistic chance.

3.Destiny’s Own last start in a stronger field, with Race Rival Commander leading, he was going ok back on the fence but could not get clear in the straight looking to have a bit on offer.

9.Foxborough   in strong form and peaking now. Gets back and tempo will be against though.

8.Canasta looked good winning over 1800m last campaign in good time. Ran two nice trials then faded late fresh up over 1400m. Drawn to get a soft lead with Agassi 1st $10

5.Angel Of Heaven good runs lat campaign in strong races without winning. Two trials will have her ready and has won fresh up- Nash Rawiller a plus.

2.Commander tougher field fresh up – fitter and maps to get a good run- watch market.

Other thoughts:

7.Lord Gododdin can go ok fresh but ran a fading 4th of  under a ride in a recent trial.

Race 6

Confidence: 3/5

1.Super Ex last start ran a top third after working early from a wide draw, snagging to 3rd outer at a good tempo, led 70m out and was swamped by Indy Car, who bolted in last Saturday. Better surface will suit as well. Drawn to lead or take a sit and get every chance and a big weight is not as detrimental over 1100m as it is over a longer distance and gets 1.5kgs off, so looks very well placed to win third up. RP $2.40, $2.40 FF Missed after being a big drifter in price

Dangers:

3.Mossman George was held up at a vital time last start and found the line well late for fith. Fitter third up and if the fence is off, he could end up wider in the better part of the track. He beat Star Of The Seas here last year who placed in the Doncaster recently.

5.Kosciusko looked ready to go after a good trial win and has the credentials to win id the above two aren’t on their game.

Race 7

Good speed in this giving every runner their chance.

1.Juventus has been racing ok in harder fields and Opie will give him every chance from the good draw. 1st after a good ride from Opie $4.70

6.Jetski came from the back to win well last start but the speed rating was just average against a weaker field. Plus is he will be suited by the strong tempo so has to be in quaddies if he improved off that after a break and a trial 3rd. Maybe half a run short so market confidence or lack of it may tell the story there. Drifted quite a bit and was held up

2.Lifetime Quest drawn to get every run and this is easier from a good draw.

3.Regal Stage good win last start and with a good run from the wide draw, can win as he tries very hard.

12.Moreno had a quiet trial to get ready and if inside is off, can do it fresh up.

Race 8

Even tempo likely with Emanate looking to get on the pace from the wide draw. All runners suited.

Confidence: 1/5

2.Cardiff has been gelded after a very good last campaign against smart horses. Trialed up very well 2nd outer and winning with a few gears to go through. Should be able to lead no trouble and if Emanate and Iconic Star don’t take him on too much, he can hold on. RP $3.50

Dangers:

4.Dirty Work drops back in class after working on a good tempo. With a good run likely just behind the speed this time, can win. 1st $4.60 with a 10/10 ride from Tommy Berry

8.Reiby’s Regent is nicely placed here as he likes to land behind a good tempo and come with one hard sprint. Drawn to get that run.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!