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Saturday 18 April 2020 preview below

Race 8 12.Deep Image is a nice eachway bet at good odds. had his chance. Time for some tea. The last race is very open. Maybe Crocodile Mountain can lead all the way.  A very profitable day with the Quality bets with 42.2 units returned from 10.6 units outlaid. Back again tomorrow at 2 p.m. with any bets or quaddies.

Race 7.11.Bivouac should get to the right spot in running and be hard to beat. He’s ready now.

Race 6 Tough race just fingers crossed to be alive in the quaddie after the first leg is run! Ocean Ex is a nice eachway chance. Alive after leg 1 but I’m not confident! The Pick 6 pool got to just $24k so won’t have a go next week- the TAB needs to Guarantee it to at least $50k and make it a Terminator to get people betting into it!

Suggested Sydney quaddie for $48 for 10%

R6  2, 3, 4, 5, 9, 11
R7   1, 2, 11, 14
R8    2, 4, 5, 12
R9    4, 6, 7, 10, 15

Race 5 Randwick ( I’ll post the quaddie bet after this race) Kings legacy has held his price in the market and he should take the same route as Kinane. Nice and relaxed. That will do us. Good ride by Hugh and just too good and too tough. back with a suggested quaddie soon.

Caulfield race 4 1.Mr Quickie will get back and the track is no disadvantage to horses closing 5 and 6 off, so can win at $2ish but doesn’t offer much value so don’t go crazy on him. Had his chance 2nd – back for King Legacy’s race soon.

Race 4 Randwick

6.Chuck A Luck and 12.Kinane ( nice and relaxed and a real athletic type)  have been confidently backed since yesterday. Both should get a good run and get their chance.

Gee what a win that was. That is the value of doing sectionals using them in the context of the meeting. 26 units net profit on Quality bets with the quaddie to come on Kings Legacy. Back for Mr Quickie’s race at Caulfield where he can win as off the fence is  no disadvantage.

Race 3 Randwick

2.Rubisaki has got out to $2 and just needs the breaks to win – but that is why you are getting 4. Akari looks very fit and those two look the quinella. Money is on 8.Rocha Clock but Lizzie said she looks like she will improve with it and was just ok in her trial for second. Gee she is one tough filly. Back for Race 4 at Randwick where our two Quality bets have been backed right in so we got some decent value getting on yesterday.

Race 2 Randwick The H2H here looks the best bet with Trumbull $1.80 to beat home Outrageous. And Trumbull is worth an each bet as well with James Mac up and Lizzie has made him the best looking runner so far. Missed after getting trapped 15 wide! Quaddie alive. Back for race 3 at Randwick.

Suggested early quaddie is:

$10 for 50% Paid $260 for $130 return

R2   1, 8, 10, 12, 14
R3   2, 4
R4   6, 12
R5    1

Race 1 Caulfield

4.Simply Optimistic has been solidly backed and looks ready to win. With the Kiwi combo of Michael Walker and Brendan hawtin, here’s hoping they can just get a decent crack at them and they should be too good. Ran on late after checking off heels and ran on late. Big strong horse who could be one to watch out for over 1600m.

Race 1 Randwick 18.Foxie La Belle looks very well and relaxed and should get her chance. Nice eachway chance in an open race. Can also back her for a win and get Money back in Bonus bets up to $30 on FF betting. No luck there when held up and found the line late- a good race to get a few winners out of over the next few weeks. Back For Simpy Optimistic’s race at 2.13

Next update just before race 1 at Randwick about 1.53 p.m.

I’ll be doing live updates throughout the day just before the races at Randwick and Caulfield and will post the Randwick quaddie after seeing a few races there.

Randwick Update ( next update by 1pm  Saturday as scratchings don’t come through until 11 a.m. )

Paul D, who won the Heads Up multi last week, has this bet for $20 to return $144

Race 2 H2H Trumbull $1.80, Race 3 Rubisaki to win and Race 5 Kings Legacy $2.50  to win and is also the multi of the day.

Bet of the day Race 5 1.Kings Legacy $2.50 FF

Value bet of the day Caulfield Race 1 4.Simply Optimistic $6 Friday now $5 FF

Speed map Special Randwick Race 8 5.Deprive $$3.80 FF

Sneaky of the day Randwick race 1 18.Foxie La Belle $14 FF

There are three quality bets below, with two bets in the same race. (Randwick race 4 and 5)

Best double figure bets so far are:

Randwick Race 1 18.Foxie La Belle $14 and $4.20 ( Money back Bonus offer race back to 4th place)

Randwick Race 4 6.Chuck A Luck $12 Ff

Randwick Race 8 12.Deep Image $21 and $4.80

Horses to lay at this stage at Randwick are:

Race 4.Quick Thinker currently at around $3.00 and drifting.

Race 5 6.Ole Kirk around $4.80

Race 6 5.Shared Ambition $3.40

Caulfield Race 1 6.Jumbo Ozarki $5

 

Race 1

The speed map shows good early speed with a few runners looking to lead or be close to it.

Confidence 2/5 but a nice eachway chance at odds. ( we are going to get some good ones to follow out of this race over the next few weeks. )

18.Foxie La Belle three starts back here ran a big 4th over 1000m drawing the outside barrier ( 16) and snagging back, then storming home for fourth ( video here ) and she had the best closing sectionals here 

Then she ran a good 3rd in good time two starts back. Then last start was planted 3w on the pace and fought on very well for third here. ( White colours) They ran the first 600m in 34.47 and home in 35.57 so it was a very good effort to run third. She has drawn the inside here and she does have the early speed to make use of it and either trail or be three back at worst. Her action says a soft 5 Good 4 is ideal. Nice eachway chance at good odds to start the day. RP $8, $14 FF Up to $30 back in Bonus bets in this race.

Race 2

The speed map shows six runners looking to lead or be right on it so sets up for a closer or runner with a cosy trip.

Confidence:1/5 in an open race. Very hard to select anything with any confidence. I’ll update this race with the head to head to see if there is any value in that.

Update 11.20 H2H is Trumbull $1.80 to beat Outrageous

Trumbull has much better times on a good track over 1200m  than Outrageous. Trumbull has won over the track and distance and has a much better strike rate with an action ideal for a better track. Outrageous bled last start so from the wide draw is going to snag back and be allowed to run on without giving her a hard run considering that bleeding. James Mac is on Trumbull and he has trialed well after having a tough run last month second up.

Race 3

The speed map shows not a lot of early speed and a moderate tempo is likely. Rubisaki maps to be 3 back inner and once again needs luck to win.

Confidence: 4/5

1.Rubisaki won easily last start here. She just wants to win when she gets balanced up which is why she has won 7 from 9 with three of those wins over 1400m. The negative of course is that she will very likely be 3 back inner as she is best ridden quiet early then allowed to wind into it. So she will need luck, just as she did last time, but that is all that can beat her. RP $1.50, $1.60

Dangers:

4.Akari is ready to win based on her third behind Rubisaki last start. The plus with her is she has won here on a Good 4 in 1.21.55 over 1400m here last October. Drawn to land closer than Rubisaki in running and if she is held up, Akari, with the blinkers going on at the right time, could get a winning break on her and hold on. An intriguing race and they do look the best quinella all day.

Race 4

This  race is where we can back two horses in the same race to make a nice profit regardless of which one wins. Quick Thinker is just no value at $2 coming off a gutsy Derby win where he was well placed on the testing track. Back to 2000m on a better surface from a wide means he can get definitely get beaten. So that does throw up value runners and I’ve found the two who are.

12.Kinane drew away late last start over 1600m when ridden up well out on the soft track but once he got balanced up on slightly better going in the straight careered away in very good closing sectionals in the context of the day. Bred to see out 2000m and raced like he definitely wants it now. James McDonald jumps on and drawn to get a good trip. RP $3.50, $7.50 Ff 4.3 units with the Value Staking Plan

6.Chuck A Luck has looked good in his two runs in oz after a strong finishing 6th in the 2000 Guineas in NZ. Looks every bit a middle distance horse and the way he won over 1600m two starts back then found the line from well back last over 1600m, means from the good draw, he has the early speed to land in a good spot and be the one Kinane has to run down. RP $6, $12 FF 2 units at $12

Race 5

Confidence: 3/5

1.Kings Legacy won very strongly last start over 1400m in a similar time and sectional split to the older horses in the Highway race earlier on a slightly better surface. He really attacked the So third up to 1600m which has been his target here, from the good draw, he looks very hard to beat. Dry track is ideal for him. RP $1.90, $2.60 FF 4.0 units at $2.50 FF

Dangers:

3.Aim  will appreciate the better track more than most and should get a good run. Has the strength to be the main danger to his stablemate.

6.Ole Kirk  ran 4th to Kings Legacy last start and will be behind him on the turn. He’ll appreciate the better ground but so will King’s Legacy so hard to see him beating him.

4.Holyfield  has excelled on wet tracks but hard to see him holding out Kings Legacy

Race 6 First leg of the quaddie and I’ll post a recommended one later in the day after I’ve seen how the track is playing and any significant market moves and is it going to need a decent spread in most legs.

Greysful Glamour looks to lead from wide out and a moderate to even tempo likely

Confidence: 1/5

9.Oceanex won with a strong driving staying action at Flemington over 2000m after being 3 wide in the open all the way with the rider saying after the race that she has a very good attitude and has plenty of upside. She has struck wet tracks in two runs back and can bounce back third up on a dry track. Drawn well. RP $6, $7.50 FF

Dangers and there plenty:

5.Shared Ambition good tough horse with 6 wins from just 9 starts. Okay in the Doncaster in a stronger field. Up to 2000m suits . Negative is wide draw and may have to snag back and with a moderate tempo likely, get caught out in a bit of a sprint home. A good lay to back runner as he will

2.Yulong Prince won very well at Flemington when last on the inner turning in but when out stretched out like a very good horse to get up over the 2000m. Good run in Doncaster when leading on the inside 200m out but was swamped. Fourth up now in the right race. Negative is he will get back and need things to go his way.

3.Best Of Days had the toughest run in the Doncaster 3w on the pace and was gone on the turn. Should land on the pace which will be a plus and found the line nicely for 6th in the Group 1 fresh up behind Dreamforce getting his own way up front. Hasn’t won since 2018 but raced in some stronger fields than this last campaign with credit. Can upset.

4.Life Less Ordinary ran a solid 2.3L 4th to Te Akau Shark and Verry Ellegant last time on a decent surface. Ok runs on wet tracks since. Drawn to get every chance and a realistic chance.

6.Night’s Watch won with a driving finish two starts back over 2000m. Was held up and found the line nicely in the Docaster. Drawn to land midfield and from there is a chance.

11.Greysful Glamour looks the leader here and a dry track will suit.

 

Race 7

Speed map shows plenty of early speed.

Confidence: 1/5 in a very open field

11.Bivouac ran on well last start on the heavy 8 track and he needs a decent surface to use his superior closing speed to best effect. Drawn ideally to land closer and is very fit. RP $4.50

Dangers:

Santa Ana Lane charged home last start for second and third up here with a decent tempo likely will suit. Drawn 1 and is likely to back inner but with a fast tempo likely, can swamp them.

14.Standout has been set for this but is a query at a strongly run 1400m at this level. Trialed like he is ready to win so maybe watch him for an easier race next up.

1.Pierata won this last year and third up after just leaking on his run last start, he could win it again.

9.Tofane hit the line hard for fifth here last start. Best form is left handed with her 4 wins coming that way round.

4.Fierce Impact closed off hard for third behind Te Akau Shark and Verry Elleegant two starts back and strong fourth last start at Caulfield.

12.Brandenburg ran a game 3rd in the Group 1 Doncaster and drawn to get all favours here. Two wins from 3 starts over 1400m a plus too and blinkers going on.

10.Fasika game second from a wide draw last Saturday. Has won over 1400m and should land on the pace.

 

Race 8

The speed map shows good early speed and at least an even tempo.

Confidence: 2/5 and with the first two legs of the quaddie being very open, we need to go narrower in these last two legs.

5.Deprive has had two runs back now and found the line hard in both. She maps to get back but she relishes it when they go fat up front and she can unleash her powerful late sectionals. Fitter third up and had had a 4 week freshener which is ideal for her and James jumping on is a plus. She won here in 1.08.6 in a Group 3 sprint last October. RP $3.50

Dangers:

12.Deep Image is a  very good horse from Queensland who in record time at Eagle Farm over 1300m here in race 8. he won a trial easily recently leading a sit and sprint. He has won twice fresh up and from the good draw will make full use of it and get into a good spot on pace and is an upset chance.

2.Kementari  looked a definite improver after a good third fresh up. Drawn to be right in it- market will help as a guide.

4.In Her Time  will find this easier than recent runs. Just needs a good run from a wide draw.

Race 9

The speed map shows Cradle Mountain leading with the blinkers going on, and Desert Lord and Cuba probably giving him no peace, so an even tempo likely suiting all runners.

Confidence: 1/5

4.Lanciatio  is ready to fire after a nice 2nd in a recent trial here. Maps to get back but will be flying home late off the decent tempo.

10.Dealmaker  fitter now and maps to do nothing on the rail and could do it.

6.Cradle Mountain trialed up really well here leading all the way and the blinkers were on then and they stay on for this.

15.Phaistos has won twice fresh up and had two trials to do it again although his last trial he was ridden up but top stables know how to get that improvement into them in between times.

7.Military Zone  is a good horse and ran a nice trial recently to get him ready for this.

Caulfield

Race 1

The speed map shows an even tempo suiting all runners.

Confidence:2/5 almost a Quality bet but is likely to get back and need luck.

4.Simply Optimistic missed the jump last start but still put in a top effort running some excellent closing sectionals in the context of the day and was held up late. He did look a definite improver before the start as he is a big fella. He won his Australian debut very well ar Randwick ovewr 1200m showing good early speed to get into the 1×1 and was too good late but wanted to run out so was taken south for the left handed tracks. He is a big strong galloper who is going to win more races. The negative is he is likely to get back as he wasn’t rushed out last start and will get back and need luck.  RP $4.50, $6.00 FF

Dangers:

10.Villa Sarchi   very good run on a heavy track last start and he has won 4 races on Good tracks. Drawn wide but if they go along evenly, should get his chance.

6.Jumbo Ozaki  beaten by favourite last start who got a better run while he covered ground. Just won two back over 1400m. But the way he found the line with long loping strides suggests he needs 1600m.

Race 2

The speed map shows 1-5-6 sharing the pace with Clarice Cliffs doing work early to cross.

Confidence: 1/5 in a tricky race- the head to head will be worth looking at.

6.Clarice Cliffs  has won on a Good track and ran a game second last start. Should go forward and if not used up too much will be in the right place.

1.Twitchy Frank last start led and was run down by Clarice last start after a 6 week break so would improve- has form on a Good track and has won here.

Race 3

Confidence: 3/5

2.Pippie  drawn out and can slide over and lead or be 2nd outer without being taken on so with her strong form this campaign in stronger fields, she should be very hard to run down. RP $2, $2.00 FF

Dangers: 

5.Sirius Suspect has an ideal wet track action and I can’t see him having the speed to beat Pippie on a Good 4 track

Race 4

Confidence: 3/5

1.Mr Quickie well in at the weights and ran a good race in the Group 1 Doncaster where he didn’t get a good run in traffic. Negative is he has drawn wide and will get back and with a moderate tempo could get caught out in a sprint home or if the winners are winning off the front, so he is a horse you need to wait to back till just before the race. RP $1.90 but depends on any pattern shown in races 1 to 3. Ideal Lay to Back bet as he will get back and drift in price in running.

Will also have a look at the head to head here.

Race 5

Will also have a look at the head to head here a it is an open race.

Race 6 First leg of the quaddie and this is a very tough quaddie. Suggest you by-pass it and go for the Sydney quaddie as you could spend a fair bit on trhis one for a low percentage and still miss it quite easily, so spend that money  on the Randwick quaddie. I’ll have a good look at the head to heads on offer in these races.

 

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!