I’ve spent a lot of time going through the Canterbury fields and hopefully it will pay off. There is one Quality bet, Race 1 1.Kiku 4.6 units at $2.60 FF
Bet of the day race 1 1.Kiku $2.60 FF 3rd after getting her chance 6th outer off an even pace.
Other 3/5 or better confidence races are:
Race 5 3.Regimental Band at $3.30 FF
Race 7 7.Adelong $1.80 FF
The best head to head at value is race 6 with Whispered $1.95 to beat home Come Along – looks the best bet in this race.
The best value bets are race 4 7.Miyake $6 Ff and race 8 4.Dunbrody Power $8 Ff
Multi of the day is Kiku to win and the Head to head with Whispered to beat Come along $1.95 to return $50.70 for every $10
Suggested late quaddies are:
$27 for 50%
R5 1, 2, 3
R6 3, 6, 8
R8 4, 5, 8, 9, 10, 13
And $10.80 for 20%
R5 1, 2, 3
R6 3, 6, 8
R8 4, 5, 8, 9, 10, 13
RP = Rated Price which is the chance I give the horse. e.g. If its a 50% chance it will rate at $2, $5 will be a 20% chance etc.
Confidence levels. This ranges from 1/5 to 5/5 being very confident. 3/5 or better are the races to focus most of your serious bets around.
FF = Final Field or the price the NZ Bookies have up
Canterbury Good 4 and a fine day forecast.
The track layout can be seen here
Confidence: 4/5 and is a Quality bet 4.6 units at $2.60 FF
1.Kiku 3rd after getting her chance 6th outer off an even pace. in her trial before she debuted had the handbrake on all the way down the straight so it was no surprise on debut, over 1100m, to see her unleash the fastest closing sectionals of the race ( after being held up ) in the fastest speed rating of the day even when compared to the older horses. That is a very good pointer to a 2yo’s ability. In her trial she jumped much better and was on speed. From her draw of 5, she should be able to slot in one off about 4th outer and with a query over Elizabeel after her just average run on debut despite the heavy track, she looks very well placed here to win off the 7 day back up from the Waller stable. Waller has his best strike rate ( 18.5% ) when backing horses up withing 7 or less days. He’s a patient trainer so he wouldn’t do it with a 2yo unless she has come through that run very well which does help negate my nervousness about backing a 2yo filly up off a tough debut run. RP $1.70, $2.60 FF 4.6 units at $2.60 FF
Tricky race with most having their debuts. Market movers may help.
Another tricky race with not much decent track form to go off, so pass.
7.Miyake 1st $8.50 after getting a good tempo up front is a good galloper who prefers a dry track. Fresh up on a wet track he just didn’t let down. Last campaign he came from 3L last to win his maiden over 1500m in the best speed rating all day, which very few maiden winners do. Then next up he got home strongly again for second over 1900m, today’s distance, when there was a strong leaders bias in the fastest closing sectionals of the race. The negative is he gets back and may just need this one being second up over ground, but the Waller factor could kick in and get him home. One to watch in the market movements, but is a nice eachway chance. RP $5, $6 and $2 FF
Flinders is the $2.10 favourite here and won her maiden well last start after travelling better than anything well out. This is harder and she has drawn an awkward barrier and is likely to go forward and do extra work to avoid being caught wide, so it makes it hard to take the $2.10 on offer. ran second after doing too much midrace from that wide draw.
Race 5 First leg of the quaddie
The speed map shows 1.Romantic Whisper leading a moderate tempo over Cappamore and Regimental Band should land closer than the map shows and be about 4th or 5th outer.
3.Regimental Band 2nd had her chance.beat good filly Akari over 1100m in very good time last September. Then she went to a Listed Race at Flemington,settled 5th outer and kept driving hard to the line for a strong fourth. Two starts back over 1200m, second up, she drew wide, snagged back but drove home wide out for second, easily beating race rival Romantic Whisper, running the best closing sectionals . The tempo favoured on pace runners too so it was an effort of a next up winner. But next up she landed in a very strong Group 3 fillies race behind the top filly Rubisaki. She just didn’t handle the track condition so was a complete forgive. So back on a better surface, which she needs with her action, she has the early speed for James to get her into a good position about 4th or 5th outer and drive home the best and beat race rival Romantic Whisper again who she meets 2.5kgs better off. RP $2.90, $3.30 FF
1.Romantic Whisper two starts back led all the way over 1500m in a BM 64 over 1500m in an ok Speed rating. Then last start got a bit worked up before the start , pinged to the lead and was run down after having to come wide for better ground. The pre-race ear muffs go on for the first time to calm her down before the start which will help her conserve energy for the business end this time.Looks the only leader here and should be able to get into a good rhythm in front. She seems better against the rail and if she can get a break on the turn, despite the weight, she will be the one Regimental Band will have to run down.
8.Cappamore did well second up last start after being 3w in the open for most of it and did well to run third. Fitter now and has rated well on better surfaces before. One to put in trifectas at decent value as she has drawn to get all favours but has a poor strike rate.
2.Loveseat ran home nicely from near last for sixth fresh up. Her best form is over 2000m or more. She is likely to get back here and with a moderate tempo likely, find some of these too fast down the home straight. They went fast enough for her to win- nice mare
The speed map shows Whispered leading out with Hostage Of War.
Confidence: 2/5 The head to head here with Whispered $1.95 to beat home Come Along looks the best bet in this.
3.Whispered last after pulling up lame beaten in a stronger field last start when caught in the slower inner ground. Before that she won really well at Kembla Grange coming with a driving finish. The speed rating was below average but it was a bit of sprint home. She does have good early speed and third up on a good track, maps to get out and lead or trail on a moderate tempo, and that will to win of hers could just make her too tough to run down. RP $3.60, $4.20 FF
6.Lancer blinkers come off after good runs over shorter distances and likely to get back and if they go hard enough, could do it.
1.Come Along got a nice run with cover fresh up and challenged hard 200m out and fought hard. Best form is on a Soft track and his action suggests that too. With only 1 win from 16 starts on a Good track, he can get beaten from a wider draw where he will have to work with top weight.
8.Derbari won his maiden well but it was a slow speed rating on the heavy track. Gets in on a winning weight. Watch any strong market moves as he is very fit and nicely bred from a good draw.
2.Invasion Day debuting in Australia and had two trials for a fair 2nd and 4th, the last against better horses than these. Drawn out and has a nice action for a dry track. Drawn wide and has early speed from the Waterhouse stable, so likely to go forward. Big ask fresh up over 1550m. Market movement will give you confidence or not!
5.Hostage Of War will go forward but likely to need this as tired badly fresh up and looks like he needs a middle distance later in his campaign to be backed with confidence.
The speed map shows most runners looking to lead or be on it with Nictock and Lesage likely to look to lead early and Adelong looking to cross 2nd outer but is a danger to get parked 3w open.
Confidence: 4/5 with the small field now.
7.Adelong 2nd after the race fitness factor did make all the difference has looked very good in all of her starts showing good early speed to lead or be 2nd outer and relaxed well. She has a beautiful stride on her and trialed ideally for a successful return to this campaign. She does have the early speed to get over but Lesage with Nash Rawiller on will want to make her work to past her, so I can see Lesage leading and her sitting second outer and from there, she should be too good. Tongue tie goes on which can only help. RP $1.50, $1.70 FF
10.Lesage 1st after getting that lead and was too fast and race fit. can match Adelong for early speed and has drawn just inside her, so should give Adelong a nice drag over to second outer and a moderate tempo from there. I’d say Nash will be keen to either lead with her race fitness edge or maybe sit 2nd outer holding Adelong 3 wide or forcing her to work hard to get 2nd outer. But Lesage looks better with fresh air in front of her, and is likely to want the lead, so a real interesting first 500 metres. Her last win over 1000m was excellent when leading from barrier 8 and leading easily, came away from the fence and kept finding to win in 57.56, not the official 57.06, but was by far the best speed rating all day. It was an official Heavy 8 but the times say it was more like a Soft 6. Her action also says a good track. Probably just lacks the strength of Adelong over the last 100 metres.
3.Blazing Miss won easily fresh up over 1100m last campaign. Won a recent trial then had a very quiet won most recemtly. Drawn to get the last go at the leaders if they go too hard but that is unlikely so Lesage at $1.50 Head to head to beat her home looks the obvious bet. Easily beaten by Lesage
The speed map shows 5.Beach Baby having enough speed to cross to 2nd outer without using too much petrol. Zedward has early speed but is a query at 1200m so is likely to take a sit if tested early.
5.Beach Baby 2nd caught wide- good run won really well fresh up in a good speed rating. Second up set an even pace and was run down on a heavy track but didn’t flinch for a close third. Good tough horse who likes to race, and he should be able to cross and get 2nd outer or even lead with a clean beginning, and he does look hard to beat from there. RP $3.50, $4
4.Dunbrody Power 5th after getting held up won like a very good mare at Warwick Farm here in a a good speed rating. She ran ok on a heavy 8 third up last start and the Good track here will allow her to use that powerful last 150m burst. Will get back, but with a decent tempo, she could blow these away late.
9.Warfare won well last start getting off the lead in a fast run affair. Freshened up from the Snowden stable and will be ready to fire.
8.Monte Ditto goes well here and ran a nice trial for third behind race rival Beach Bay for this. Drawn well .
10.Ruthless Agent drawn to get a good run and was an unlubky close 6th here fresh up last campaign and nearly always goes a top race fresh. Upset chance from the good draw.