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Saturday 25 April 2020 preview below

Race 8 Rosehill 2.Tricky Gal is a strong galloper and just needs another good ride from Tommy to be the one to beat. Good luck if you are live in the recommended quaddie. That’s what we were after a $15,389 quaddie payout and 10% of that if you took the recommended 10% quaddie for $22.40. Were due after getting plenty of concessions in the last couple of weeks.

Race 7 8.Amangiri looks much fitter than she was last start. Just needs to be able to do her own thing in front and she is going to be real tough to run down. Crikey, almost a certainty beaten. makes the quaddie interesting

Race 6 1.Dawn Passage it is no disadvantage being off pace as long as they don’t get a softish lead. Decent pace likely here so he should get his chance to power over these. Nice eachway chance. at $8 won with a top ride – Back for race 7 with Amangari looking a good chance to lead all the way.

Race 5 Flemington 12.Excelman is a nice eachway bet in this. 3rd after getting every chance $2.80 3rd

Flemington Quaddie $56 for 10% in a toughie yes $1238

R5   2, 3, 10, 11, 12
R6    1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 11, 12
R7    1, 2, 7, 8, 11, 12, 13, 14
R8    11, 17

Morphetville Race 5

8.Night Express – she looks very fit- would like to see her in front as she can sneak a break on the corner. Very disappointing after getting a soft lead. Back for race 5 at Rosehill. Tough race and just stick with the quaddie.

She has been solidly backed and is holding her price around $3.70. On pace runners are certainly winning so she will get every chance. 3 units on her with 1 unit on 5.Lunar Light as a saver.

Flemington race 4

1.Vow and Declare was in a real mood last start at Sydney and he appears much calmer back on his favourite stamping ground. So, he is a real weights special against an average field, and only bad luck should beat him. Well, that was weak effort. Back for Night Express shortly. She has been solidly backed and is holding her price around $3.70. On pace runners are certainly winning so she will get every chance. 3 units on her with 1 unit on 5.Lunar Light as a saver.

Rosehill race 4

1.In Her Time has been strongly backed to win this. She just needs a run 3 wide with cover or one off, and she can finish her career on a winning note. 6.Bangkok maps to get a cosy run 3 back inner and he will be charging at her late. 2 and 4 for trifectas – Lizzie nailed it with Sweet Scandal flying home late to beat In Her Time with a game last run for second. back for Vow And Declares’s race who is a quality bet. He’s been solid on all markets around $2.00 and as long as he looks ok, we are on. Back just before his race.

Recommended quaddie for Rosehill Race 5 $22.40 for 10% yes $15389 for a $1,539 return

R5     1, 2, 5, 6, 8, 10, 15
R6     1, 3, 4, 14
R7     8
R8     1, 2, 5, 6, 10, 11, 12, 13

Flemington Race 3 1.Run To Perfection looks fit enough to win and he has held his price. Nice eachway chance- go the Kiwis. Had his chance- improver’s run- back for Rosehill 

Race 3

13.Word For Word maps to get the right run behind the leaders where the winners have come from so far. 17.Jetski definitely looks fitter after his unlucky run last start. If they go hard enough, which is likely, he can definitely win. Back both for a win for small amounts. Had their chances. back for Race 3 at Flemington with Kiwi Run To perfection debuting- he goes very well fresh and if he looks ready, is worth a small eachway bet.

Rosehill Race 2

11.Welsh Legend definitely looks fitter and more settled than her last start. The money has come solidly for her on Betfair which is always a strong lead from the Waller stable. Good eachway bet. Quinella with Laure me In worth a dollar as well. 1st $4.80 and $15 quinella with a terrific ride – back for race 3 at Rosehill.

Flemington

11.Wild Savanna can be backed for a win with Money back in bonus bets for 2nd, 3rd or 4th. She has been well backed in all markets lately. H2H Wyld savanna $1.65 to beat Indictment is worth having for a small amount or in a multi with say Night Express at Morphetville to boost her odds. Missed after racing far too keenly with the slow tempo. Back for race 2 at Rosehill.

Rosehill update: back for race 1 at Flemington

Race 1

Tricky race. Saffiano is a good looking galloper and looks ready. Nice eachway bet. 1st with a good run and driving win $550 and $2s

H2H ( head to head bet)

Saffiano $1.45 yes  to beat The Defiant One  does look the one here. Saffiano has been well backed and The Defiant One a steady drifter and doesn’t look as fit Was solidly backed in late but missed the jump , worked early and tired late- improver as Saffiano and is getting hot according to Lizzie. No value in it but you could put him in a small multi with Vow And Declare

Update 12.51 p.m. next Update 2.48 p.m. just before race 1 at Rosehill

I’ll post updates of a few races today about 2 minutes out for each race.

Remember to make sure you save the bulk of your money for your serious bets. For example today, if you have $100 to spend, keep $75 for your serious bets, and $25 for your ‘Action’ bets. For me, my serious bets are around Vow And Declare and Night Express. I personally haven’t backed them yet as I do feel they will pay at least what they were at yesterday. My action bets will be on quaddies and maybe a couple of Head to Heads that look value throughout the day.

The other thing you absolutely need is a betting bank. If you haven’t got one, get one. Even if you put away $20 a week and add any winnings to it until you reach 100 times your average bet, you have to get one. I’ll expand more on that next week.

I’ll post the recommended quaddies by 5 p.m. as both look open and any decent bias, as David Walsh emphasized in the interview yesterday, could influence the selections and final bets.

Wayne, who won last week’s Heads Up $20 multi bet is Vow And Declare into Night Express for $140.60 return

Update 8.40 a.m. next Update by 1 p.m.

Bet of the day Flemington Race 4 1.Vow And Declare $1.85 ( $2 yesterday ) Quality bet 4 units at $2 FF

Value bet of the day Morphetville Race 5 8.Night Express $3.60 ( $3.70 Friday but may drift a little -Quallity bet 3 units at $3.70 with 1 unit saver on 5.Lunar Light at $6 FF

Speed Map Special Rosehill race 7 8.Amangari $4.50 1st $5.20 

Sneaky of the day Flemington Race 1 11.Wyld Savanna $7 FF and is a Bonus back offer if 2nd, 3rd or 4th up to $30 FF

Update 6 p.m. Friday. Just two Quality bets so far for Saturday which will be updated just before their races. A 1 o’clock update tomorrow will include a preview of Flemington ( race 1 has been detailed below for the Bonus back offer.)

Update: Red Stina looks very fit and relaxed- the last two race winners have won about 4 and 5 off the rail, the last winner came from 6th inner, so if she can get off that rail on the bend, she should prove too powerful in the run home. She has been steady in the market and if you can bet in running, she is likely to at better odds during the run as she can be slow away and will get back with the main danger Kings Full will shorten being likely to be on pace. Lost her chance missing the start by 6L- that’s racing!

Next update by 3.55  p.m. with an update on Red Stina.

Update 1 p.m. Three Quality bets below

Friday

Gold Coast

Race 5 3.57 p.m.

Confidence: 4/5 and a Quality bet 4th after missing the jump by 6L

Race 5 

9.Red Stina has had three runs back now and is peaking for this ideal 1800m race. last start got back and charged home for second in the best sectionals of the race in a well above average speed rating. Start before was almost as good too. She looks much stronger now being a 4yo mare. The map lands her 3 bak inner behind an even tempo and she should be able to get out and get over these with her sprinting power at peak fitness now. RP $1.70, $2.20 FF 3.9 units at 2.20 FF I’ll update 2 minutes before the race

Saturday

Flemington 

Race 4

Confidence: 4/5 and a Quality bet

1.Vow And Declare of course won the Melbourne cup when we were lucky enough to be on him when he bolted in by a head. Since then he has had a good break and ran a top third in the Group 1 Australia Cup in the best speed rating by far all day, and that was fresh up over 2000m. Then he had to start in the Queen Elizabeth even though he wasn’t suited by the testing track. After racing on pace, he tired 200m out for a distant 9th. But he ran a top 2nd in the Caulfield Cup before winning that Melbourne Cup. He is fitter now third up and dropping out of one the strongest WFA races for a while to this Quality handicap and gets in nicely under the weights despite carrying 4 or 5kgs more than the rest. Drawn to land in a good spot with Craig Williams back on he will relish the 2600m third up on a decent surface on a track he has won twice on before. RP $1.50, $2.00 Ff and may pay more on the day. 4 units at $2 FF with the Value Staking Plan

Dangers:

6.Mirimar  got all favours last start in the trail and won ok on a heavy track. best form is on wet tracks and even though he gets 6.5kgs off Vow and Declare, I just can’t see him beating him.

8.Jack Regan  has won his last two easily but against much weaker fields in average speed ratings. If this were a handicap he would be getting a 10kg advantage not 5kgs.

Morphetville

Race 5

Confidence: 3/5 and a Quality bet

8.Night Express has had five starts. On debut she won over 1200m in the best speed rating all day, which nearly always means they win more races. She ran second next up and after a 21 week break resumed at Sale and ran a top class race after being caught 3 wide in the open and challenged 200m out and just went down. The splits showed they went out hard and the speed rating was the best all day. Then second up here, over today’s distance of 1400m, she pinged the gates and soon led after 100 ,metres, then set an even tempo relaxing well, she cornered really well and got a small break on them, then just kept extending it to win strongly on the line. The speed rating was good and she can only improve third up. Drawn to get the lead if she pings like that again and trail if taken on, and the way she corners, she could be able to win the race there if leading and get a couple of lengths on them and be too fast. I’d prefer to see her lead as she has done so twice, relaxed well, and won strongly.  RP $2.50, $3.70 FF and is likely to pay more on the day with other runners being popular with punters. Value Staking Plan says 3 units at $3.70 FF and suggest saving on 5.Lunar Light for 1 unit at $6FF

Dangers:

5.Lunar Light has run some good races in handy fields in good speed ratings. Fresh up did very well 3 wide in the open here for fifth then got back in an on pace harder field here second up. Fitter now and looks the only danger.

7.Charliese  won fresh up but in just an average speed rating. Likely to be a few lengths off Night Express and find her to tough to run down.

3.Excelida   won fresh last start but was ridden out and it was a below average rating getting all favours, so from the wide draw, will likely snag and be too far off Night Express to beat her.

Rosehill

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

5.Saffiano 1st $5 on debut got back from the start after colliding with another, but the way he found the line in the best closing sectionals on a heavy track, says it was a good effort. Drawn the inside here with James on he will give him every chance. Nice eachway chance. RP $4, $6 FF

Dangers:

3.Rousseau very good second to Formentera on debut on a heavy track. Good track suits his action much better and drawn well.

2.Rock My Wand  handled the wet track best last start. Different story here on a Good track. $2.60 is too short.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

3.Laure Me In looked ready to win after her last start 7th when held up and hit the line strongly late in very good sectionals. He is better on Good tracks so looks well placed with James up to get a cosy run midfield inner and with an even tempo likely, just needs the gaps at the right time to be a solid eachway chance. RP $5.00, $8 FF

Dangers:

11.Welsh Legend 1st $5 game second last start after a 4 week break. Fitter now and drawn to lead or be right on it.

4.Shadow Flight nice run last start for close third and the blinkers are going on at the right time.

12.Poulton le Sands  has one of the quickest speed ratings over 2000m and is ready to strike form- just the wide draw is against.

Race 3

Confidence:1/5 in an open race

10.Grand Piano 1st $4 in very good form and just needs luck from a wide draw.

13.Word For Word  can improve enough with good second up form and with James on from a good draw, can do it.

16.Donandkim  no favours last start and fitter now -drawn well.

8.Jetski  out way too late last start. Will get back but fitter now too. Can unleash with a good track into it.

Race 4

Speed map shows Irithea getting her way in front and a moderate to even time.

Confidence: 2/5

1.In Her Time did very well last start after getting hampered at the start and getting home for fifth in the  best closing sectionals. She maps to be in the early rush and could get a nice drag over with Irithea leading out. So if she lands in the first four, she will be the one they have to beat. Just a class above these on what she has done before. RP $3.00, $3.80 FF

Dangers:

6.Bangkok found the line hard last start for third last start and was an unlucky third for that. Peaking now and drawn to get a good run.

1.Irithea  just beaten by Nettoyer who won the Doncaster. Should control things up front and hold on for a place. Could hold on if the rail is a plus.

4.Multaja  ready to fire after two very nice trials. Just needs a good trip from a wide draw.

Race 5 First leg of the Quaddie

The speed map shows plenty of early speed and a fast tempo suiting an off pace runner.

Confidence:1/5 in an open race

2.Graff  ready to fire after two trials. Maps to get back but the fast tempo should allow him to get over them late. Good horse when right. RP$5, $4.60

Dangers in order:

5.All Too Royal is in strong form and if he starts here, should be a realistic chance.

10.Villami  if she can lead early and not get taken on much, could pinch it.

8.God Of Thunder  has won twice here over this distance. Just needs a good run.

15.Agent Pippa won fresh up here in October leading all the way in a fast 1.02.31 for the 1100m. Nice 2nd in her trial when not touched to run second.

 

Race 6

The speed map shows a good tempo suiting back runners.

Confidence: 2/5

1.Dawn Passage 1st $8 top run two back on a good track and not happy in the ground next up. Will get back but can charge over these up to 1400m now. RP $5.00, $8 FF

Dangers:

3.Eleven Eleven wasn’t suited to the wet track last start. Better track helps but wide draw doesn’t.

14.Icebath very good second last start and can only improve off that. Preferes a Good track too.

4.Bandersnatch is ready to fire fresh up. Can run times and if he can get a softish time up front, could do it.

Race 7

Confidence:2/5 Amangari can lead all the way here if the leaders are winning and the market move on her is positive.

8.Amangiri 1st $5 fitter third up now and has won third up in both of her campaigns and will be better suited by the firmer track. Will likely lead and she goes best when she can just tick along at her own pace, which could happen here. She will be very hard to run down if that happens. RP $4.00, $4.50 Ff

Dangers:

16.Live And Free  is ready to fire fresh up after a good trial. Weighted perfectly.

6.Girl Tuesday is simply a mare who wins when the market indicates she can, so watch the early betting. Already come in from $12 to $10 on NZ TAB.

15.Aliferous if she got the right run could do it- tough mare.

14.Manolo Blahniq ran two good sixths on Good tracks after a break, then did well last start covering plenty of ground. Treks back here where he has won. Should get a decent run.

Race 8

Confidence: 1/5 in a tough race.

2.Tricky Gal loves to win and with a good run will probably do it again. RP $5, $6.50 FF

Dangers:

6.True Detective ran the race of an imp[rover after a 4 week break last start. Drawn well with James up and 1300m suits.

11.Miss Einstein with 3 wins from 6 starts against decent horses she has to be a realistic chance.

13.Nordicus  is ready after two strong placings. Just needs a good track into it.

12.Twentyfour Carat  looked to have plenty of upsdie from last campaign winning in good times against handy horses. Has had two trials to get ready for this and drawn to get all favours on a nice weight.

Flemington

Race 1 with a $30 Bonus back offer if it runs 2nd, 3rd or 4th.

Confidence: 2/5

11.Wyld Savanna  had ‘back me next time over 1200m’ as she got back and was unwinding nicely when she hit the rail when blocked for a run and when she got out close to the finish, she ran past the rest like they were tied to a post and still ran third. So the jump from that 1000m race to 1400m, especially with Craig Williams jumping on are all positives. The bigger track will suit as well. Just neds a reasonable tempo up front which it looks like it will be for her to get out and balanced up and charge at these late. RP $5, $7.50 Good Bonus Back bet.

Race 5

Confidence: 1/5

11.Debt’n’deficit ran the best closing sectionals last start. 1700m suits now and peaking.

12.Excelman just got too far back off a moderate tempo last start. Trainer said before that race he was targeting this race over more ground.

2.The Lifeline  right at the peak of his form. Has to be in it with a good run likely in front again.

10.Highland Jakk needed that fresh up run on a soft track. Back on a Good surface will be harder to beat being fitter.

3.Betcha Flying 1st $4  from the Waller stable has to be a chance in this race now.

 

Race 6

Confidence:1/5

3.Coin Collection perfect build up to this with two strong seconds and nice third on an unsuitable wet track last start. Very fit for this. RP $5

Dangers:

12.Lindelani very nice staying filly with a game second last star. Nice staying type.

4.Sacramento 1st $5  is a nice staying type and drawn to get a good run.

1.Chains Of Honour will see out a truly run race better than most and bred to be tough.

2.Royal Crown won well last start on a soft track. Has won on Good tracks but in slowish times against weaker fields. Too short at $3.60 FF

7.Sign Seal Deliver   strong win last start with good closing sectionals in the context of the day. Drawn to get his chance and peaking nicely for this.

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

13.Esperance is ready to win fresh up especially if the inside is off for the favourite The Inevitable. The good tempo should allow him to get back and find the best part of the track to bury these

Dangers:

1.The Inevitable  did nothing here last start but has a change in stable which can do wonders for a horse but is still a risk at $2.50 FF If money comes for him from his new stable, he can win as he is very fast.

8.Miss Iano  is an improver from her fresh up run where she looked a definite improver.

14.Murillo from the Snowden stable, has seen some early money which is always a good sign from this stable. Drawn out which could be a plus.

12.Presado 1st $10 has won here twice over this distance. Drawn to get the right run with a slight freshener.

Race 8

Confidence: 1/5

4.Sikandarabad is ready to peak after three runs back and will be on pace. RP $6.60, $10 FF

Dangers:

11.Rupture 1st $4won well fresh up and weighted nicely as he will be improved by that.

8.Masculino is a  quick improver after a nice fifth fresh up

17.Dadoozdart will be ready to fire up fresh.

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!