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The harder you work, the luckier you get

Update 4.32 p.m. The preview of the Geelong quaddie is here

Update 1.55 p.m. Sunday

Apologies, I’ll post the quaddie for Geelong about 4.30 after I have seen the first four races as it looks worth taking with a couple of beatable favourites, especially if there is any significant bias is evident. There is nothing I like any earlier.

Good morning,

Firstly, I’ll post a preview of Sunday by 2 p.m. today.It was nice to see many got a slice of that $15,389 Rosehill quaddie yesterday for the suggested $22.40 for 10% spend. It was one where everything fell into place, especially when True Detective got nailed in the last race by $25 chance Oakfield Missile. The key was being able to find an anchor so we could go wide in the other legs. Amangiri was third up and she had a few ticks. The main two being she had won third up in her last two campaigns ( and she was third up this time)  and she was back on her favoured Good surface.

Before deciding to anchor her, as the inside looked ok in the earlier races,  I went back and watched her Group 3 win at Moonee Valley last October, and the way she fought back when looking beaten, reinforced how much of a fighter she was so she was the anchor. And in yesterday’s race, that is what got her home. After getting a nice trail and relaxing well, she was held up, then got out with 250m to go, led 100m out with five others within a length of her,  she had to use those fighting qualities to dig deep and hold them out.

In the first leg, Tactical Advantage had to go in third up. His trainer, Kris Lees has his best strike rate with his runners third up of 16.3 percent and had drawn 1. Dawn Passage was a horse I liked on top anyway back on a dry track. Adam Hyeronimus rode him very well to get 5th outer midrace then bolt in. After Amangiri won, it all hung on the last with eight runners. Oakfield Missile went in because of her very good run last start when held up in the straight and found the line strongly late on a heavy track. Her best form was on a Good track, so from the good draw, looked a chance with the right run and was third up as well, which is nearly always a sweet spot in many horses’ campaigns. The winning move by rider Sam Clipperton, was getting on the back of favourite True Detective midrace. That gave him the last shot at him and when the commentator said True Detective needs the winning post with 100 metres to go, we were in with a chance. When he said, “Oakfield Missile drives and might have got ’em” I agreed with him… sort of! I wanted to see the slowed down version which did show she had got up in the last bound!

One subscriber got 20% of it saying it was his biggest collect from one bet, which was neat to read. One took the quaddie but cut back the spend by leaving out Oakfield Missile- that doesn’t help the isolation blues!. We all know quaddies are hard to get, especially the decent sized ones. We have had a few close calls since the last big one when Nettoyer won the Doncaster paying around $5,000. But if you have the bank in place for them, you can ride through the inevitable losing streaks until you get the ones that cover those losses. I try and keep the spend to $50 or less for a 10% ticket for subscribers ( remembering you can take a 5% bet ), but had to go with a $56 spend on the Flemington one yesterday for 10%. We were able to strike that one, which I thought was a good chance of paying more than the Rosehill one, paying $1238, for a $123 return. Still ok, but you just have to take those on the chin as every now and then you will get those two or three outsiders in that give you that big payout.

I think most punters enjoy taking quaddies as you have a decent chance of striking those big payouts for a relatively small outlay. There is a saying, ‘The harder you work, the luckier you get.’ And that is so true with quaddies. I’ve found that I have to go through the replays and the form of the top eight favourites in each leg at least, because all it takes is one horse that you could easily miss, like Oakfield Missile, to be another concession Quaddie with 3 legs that never seem to pay well! That is a lesson I learnt the hard way.

Some quaddies just aren’t worth  studying as you can see at least two legs are going to be won by a couple of first or second favourites. But if you find a reason why one of those can get beaten, then you might be on to a decent one. Pick and choose the quaddies you bet on. e.g. If you had $100 to spend on quaddies yesterday, you could have decided to not split that on the Sydney and Flemington ones, as the Flemington one was just too hard, and spent the whole $100 on the Sydney one and give yourself a much better chance of striking it.And yes, you will make the wrong call at times, but get used to it, we all do it.

The two Quality bets, Vow And Declare and Night Express both raced well below expectations. Vow And Declare had Craig Williams saying he was 5 lengths below his best. Night Express got a soft lead and was gone 200m out- the stewards report isn’t out for there yet so that may reveal why.

I’ll post a sectional review of Rosehill by Monday night.

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Good luck,

Neil

Enquiries to Neil at formpro@formpro.co.nz or text or phone 027 352 6402

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!