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Patience really does pay

Good morning,

Firstly, I will post a preview of Australia by 2 p.m. ( Now posted here )  with an update on a suggested quaddie by 4.30 p.m.

If you have read any articles about punting and how to succeed from it, it will nearly always mention patience as being an essential element. Yes, we need to wait until the conditions are in our favour then strike with the right staking plan, but there is one aspect of punting with patience that you need to be aware of- coping with a potential winner you did not back for any valid reason. Let me explain.

Let’s say you have spent many hours doing the form and have sorted out two really good bets for the day. But as the race draws closer, the horse you are keen on, which is a front runner, has been drifting in price. And the inside has not allowed leaders to win because the winners have been swooping down the middle and wider, plus it has drifted from $4 to $7. So you decide to not back it because of those perfectly valid reasons. It jumps to the lead and on the turn the rider, Sam Spratt, who had noticed the ground was good right up against the rail ok after walking it two races before, snuck a break and just holds on to win! Yes, that would have been a hard watch but you have to be able to just take those on the chin, because as sure as Trump will come up with some other crazy Covid 19 statement, it will certainly happen again. You have to remember that long term, you will save more money than you would have won.
That happened to me on Monday. I had spent about four hours analysing the Wodonga  quaddie for us and was confident of striking it with three of the legs that looked fairly open. In the second leg, Anything But was a $2 favourite but there were three other runners that looked like they could beat it home. I was going to post the bet about 4.30 p.m. but noticed two of those runners had drifted quite markedly and the one that had come in on the market, Go Ferrando, was a weakish, low strike rate, front runner, so really thought Anything But was very likely to win. Therefore, I didn’t post the bet as we are after the quaddies that are very likely to pay $5,000 or more. And yes, Anything But won easily, and we would have struck the $2,022 quaddie for the 10% outlay for $42 for a $$200 return, but in the big picture, that isn’t going to make much difference to our long term profitability. There will be dozens more throughout the year that I will do the same thing on and they will miss, so I can easily take those on the chin. It is the same with the Quality bets. There have been times that I have updated them just before the race and said cash out or don’t back it for various reasons and it has won. Thankfully it hasn’t happened that often, but I know long term, it just helps the bottom line profit.

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Good luck,

Neil

Enquiries to Neil at [email protected] or text or phone 027 352 6402

About Neil Davis

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Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!