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Saturday 2nd May 2020 preview below

Randwick Race 9 14.Wild About her is a nice eachway chance at good odds. That’s nice way to finish the day! $18 into $11 and a slice of the $2,600 quaddie. 

Update Morphetville 16.Away Game  looks well and has been confidently backed. The last winner came up the rail and she will be coming there or close to it while Sunlight will likely be sitting 3 wide in the open or have to work too hard to get 2nd outer, and with that weight advantage, Away game is definitely going to be hard to peg back when she leads somewhere in the straight. had her chance.

Update Randwick- tough race so just watch the quaddie runners. Maybe Asharani could swoop on them late at good odds. Still alive in both quaddies but

Update: Morphetville race 6 9.Toffee Tongue has gone down nicely and relaxed and has been holding its price all day. Drawn to get a good run near the pace and be a solid eachway chance. 1st with a good rails run.

Update race 6 Randwick

4.Into The Abyss has been solidly backed from $12 in to $6.00 and is the sneaky of the day. She certainly has the ability to win it and should get the run she needs about 5th or 6th behind a an even tempo or better. Had her chance. Hightail keeps us alive in the quaddie- great training from the Snowdens as it was just an average trial.

 

Update Randwick race 6. Tough race- 1.So Taken is the best horse in the race and is ready to win – just needs the tempo up front and a good track into it. Good eachway chance. Just in case, the suggested Randwick quaddie is below along with the Morphetville quaddie. 11.Stock Up is a nice chance at very good odds. Rocha Clock plans to go back but if she jumps fast could try and lead – interesting race. That was quite impressive from last in an on pace race! Alive in the quaddie so enjoy the ride.

Update 4.30 p.m. The Morphetville quaddie is worth a small interest:

$16.50 for 50%

R6    1, 4, 8
R7    9
R8    16
R9    2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13

Update Race 5 Randwick tough race but 5.Dirty Work has had good money and is tough. Just needs luck from a wide draw with cover. Plus I’ve backed this option before but the wining margin of 1/2 length or less $1.90  is probably the best option as it is a very even bunch that will be truly run. Hugh gave him that run with cover and was too good- the margin was my first and last bet on that option- you can’t even take it in a multi!

Update 3.40 p.m. Suggested late quaddie. I try to keep the total spend for the quaddie to $50 and less but I’d suggest bypassing the Sandown and Morphetville quaddies and use the money you were going to spend on those, on this one, as it looks the best one to take for value and is on a decent surface where the other two are wet biased tracks. I have suggested two different bets depending on your budget.

First quaddie suggested is for $29.40 for 10% or $14.80 for 5%

R6  1, 3, 5, 7, 8, 11
R7   1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9
R8   3, 5, 6, 9, 10, 12, 14
R9   9

Second quaddie for $117.60 for 10% or $59 for 5%

R6    1, 3, 5, 7, 8, 11
R7     1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9
R8     3, 5, 6, 9, 10, 12, 14
R9     6,9,13,14

 

Race 4 Firstly, I’ll post the recommended quaddie for Randwick before race 5.  If you are on the head to head multi finishing on LCosmo, she has been backed in late and maps to get the last shot at them with Axe likely to do work early and be vulnerable. Good eachway chance L’Cosmo. 2nd after getting held up but would not have beaten the winner anyway but easily beat home H2H rival Axe. The recommended H2H multi to pay for your quaddies came in to return $35 for every $10 and we will need every cent of it as it looks like it will be tough to get and pay well. I’ll post that before the next race.

Race 3 Randwick. 3.Jailbreak looks very fit and should land in the first six and is going to be very hard to beat. 8.Foxie La belle, who we were on last start and she did not get clear until too late, has had good money for her and is a quinella chance. The head to head with Jailbreak and Toro Toro is worth taking as well. 2nd after getting his chance – the head to head with Toro Toro was easily covered. Just need Lcosmo to beat Axe to get a nice multi up in the next.

Race 2 Sandown. Duke Of Plumpton – the first race was a sit sprint and the leader won. He does have enough early speed to land about 5th or 6th outer and get his chance. I wouldn’t go silly on him as there is no value in him. Take him in a multi with Jailbreak. 2nd after getting his chance. Two leaders winning there now so if you can get a softish lead, you have a decent advantage. Back for Jailbreak’s race soon where he has been strongly backed and Toro Toro is drifting. The head to head multi with Lcosmo mentioned below is still worth taking.

Race 2 2.Yonkers looks very fit and come out of the best speed rating race last start. Trainer Chris Waller said Hugh Bowman will get going early which is good to hear and nothing much made it from the back in the first race, so may not suit Amitto. So Yonkers looks a fair win bet. Nice to get the bob in our favour. Race worked out perfectly for him. Great having those live 200m sectionasl in the running as they were going too fast up front, so for Good Bye, who was strongly backed, to just go down, was a top run and worth watching out for next up. back for Sandown race 2 where Duke Of Plumpton races.

 

Update: Suggested quaddie for $11 for 10%

R2   1, 2, 5, 6, 7
R3    3
R4    5, 9
R5     1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11

Update 1.38 p.m. Wild Ruler has drifted significantly ($3 to $5 ) and is going to be ridden with cover. 9.Macroura has been backed in and looks very fit. That worked out well after Wild Ruler jumped well and got a good run. Smart ride by Rachel King who had the persuader in the left hand as he ran out on debut but she kept him running straighter today which made the difference. Suggested early quaddie will be posted shortly for race 2 but it is just an interst quaddie- the serious one will be for the late quaddie which I will post after I have seen a few races.

Update 1.25 Recommended H2H race 3 Jailbreak $2 to beat Toro Toro  Race 4 H2h L’Cosmo $1.75 to beat Axe Multi returns $35 for every $10 and could pay for your quaddie bets later today. And did

Update 11.26 a.m. Next update 2 p.m. with any head to heads then back for live updates just before each race at Randwick. I’ll post any quaddie bets by 4.30 p.m.

Bet of the day Sandown Race 2 6.Duke Of Plumpton $1.80 FF

Value bet of the day Randwick race 3 3.Jailbreak $4.20 Friday into $3.50 now (with deductions ) ( Only Quality bet today) 

Speed Map Special Randwick Race 4 9.L’Cosmo $4 FF

Sneaky of the Day Randwick Race 7 4.Into The Abyss $10 FF

Lay of the day (a well favoured runner to lose) Randwick Race 1 1.Wild Ruler at $2.80 and Race Race 6 5.Rocha Clock $3..00

Next update at noon with best bets once scratchings are known.

Ryan S who won the Heads Up comp this week, has this Multi all to win, Duke Of Plumpton, Jailbreak and L’Cosmo to return $500 for $20

Update 6 .02 p.m. No further Quality bets.

Heads Up below with a preview of two races from Australia and your chance to win a $20 winner

Sandown

Race 2

Confidence: 3/5 

6.Duke Of Plumpton debuted in Australia last start and was travelling ideally well out. Once angled wider on the turn ran past them easily to win with plenty up his sleeve. His closing sectionals were very good in the context of the day on the wet track. He has an ideal action for a heavy track and will likely get back inner but with the long straight, he will get his chance to get out and balanced up, and should be too good for these on a heavy track. RP $1.80, $2.00 FF

Kensington

Update 1.55 p.m. One quality bet so far. Next update by 6 p.m.

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

7.Velorum  looked well above average winning his trial. Drawn wide but in his trial he drew wide and began ok but showed top speed to get 2nd outer and was impressive winning from there.

6.Private Agent  looked good winning ghis debut. He looks a nice one to sit just behind the decent tempo and drive hard at these late.

5.El Buena  who looked good running second, second up, has drawn to get all favours and be right in this.

1.Wild Ruler ( Update 12.15 p.m. the trainer has advised that he is going to be ridden for cover so is likely to be caught 3 wide and can get keen when restrained and from the stewards  report;

Race 1, No 1 WILD RULER – The stable have advised the colt was diagnosed with a near hind tibial stress fracture since its last race start.

It has since passed the veterinary requirements following a major orthopaedic injury and has trialled on two occasions.

on debut wasn’t that flash away, drove through to get handy and won strongly but the horse  he beat has been just average since. He is giving 3kgs to these and drawn to get caught wide and be forced to go forward or snag with very good speed outside him and underneath him. His target are two races in Brisbane next up and 4th up. He tends to get a bit keen when restrained too. So against a strong field of lightly raced 2yo’s he can definitely get beaten and is a very good lay around $3

Race 2

The speed map shows an even speed with Yonkers holding the key as to win he is very likely to put pressure on the leaders 500m out as he is a bit one paced for 1800m and was outsprinted last week.

Confidence: 2/5

7.Amitto got the race run to suit last start from the back and got a nice run through near the inner to win convincingly in the end- the plus from that is that it was a good speed rating and it was on a heavy track and her action and form says a drier track is what she needs to show her best. . This is certainly a step up in class against fit fast horses over more ground which will probably suit. The plus is she gets in on 54 kgs, a nice advantage over her main rivals. Yonkers could be the key to her winning as he needs to put the pressure on the leaders as he won’t win a sit sprint based on last week’s race and the start  well out to make it a staying test to win which will set it up for a closer with a light weight which she has. RP $4, $4.20Ff

Dangers:

2.Yonkers will be near the speed and is likely to put the pressure on early to avoid a sprint home. may get a big enough break on Amitto to hold on but with the 7 horse field now, that is unlikely.

Race 3

The speed map shows an even speed suiting all runners.

Confidence: 3/5 Quality Bet 3.0 units at $4.20 FF

3.Jailbreak last start dis very well when he drew wide, got back off an on pace race and really unwound hard late for 4th over 1200m running the fastest L600, 400 and 200m. Drawn to land closer and get a better run and the 1400m looks ideal now, ( He has won over 1300m)  with his power and speed. He should get the gaps at the right time to get out and balanced and it will take a good effort to beat him. I feel he will be too strong for Toro Toro. RP $2.80, $4.20 Ff 3.0 units at $4.60 FF

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

9.L’Cosmo is a very nice filly who relaxes well and gives it everything. Last start she drew out and tried to ease in one off but was caught 7th 3w open but traveled well on the turn and almost drove hard to get up and amazingly ran the second fastest L400 in 22.63 with the first and third horses coming from 2nd outer and 1×1.  Drawn to get the ideal run here just in behind an even to fast tempo and be hard to keep out. RP $3.50, $4.60

Dangers:

5.Fiteuse is a smart filly and has trialed up very well. Wide draw makes it tough though- needs a lot of luck.

1.Witherspoon is suited to 1000m but on a Good track, so if the track does dry out and leaders are winning, the 1000m metres will be ideal from the good draw.

Race 5

Confidence:1/5 in a race where you will need a few for the quaddie.

No strong opinion here but in order: 3-10-5-6-1-7

Race 6

The speed map shows a lack of a leader so a moderate tempo likely suiting on pace runners.

Confidence: 2/5

1.So Taken had no luck last start when held up when going well and ran the fastest last 200m of the race. Fitter for that and drops back in class here but goes up in weight with James Mac taking the ride. Will get back but it sets up nicely for her to track into it and if they are winning from off pace, she is the one to beat.

Dangers in order:

3.Sakura had James on fresh up and battled for 7th out wide on a wet track. Beat St Covets Spirit giving away 6kgs  who has gone on to very good form since. Drawn to get a good run.

5.Rocha Clock – I couldn’t understand the money coming for her fresh up after a very average trial. In her race she began ok, got a bit keen second outer and was gone 250m out. She has drawn wide here with good speed under her early over the 1300m, so is likely to snag  so $3.20 is too short in a race full of fit horses and is a good lay. Trainers have advised she will be ridden back but with a lack of a leader, if she jumps well, may well try and lead.

7. My Demetra strong placings and very fit. Drawn to get a good run.

8.Bring The Ransom  strong win first up beating a couple of nice horses on a heavy track and has won second up. Strong galloper suited to a decently run race.

11.Stock Up  won fresh up last campaign off a similar winning trial as she showed recently winning her trial. Drawn to get a nice run and is the upsetter.

Race 7

The speed map shows a fast tempo suiting off pace runners.

Confidence:2/5 with a few live chances.

3.Improvement drew wide fresh up last start, began well to be handy, challenged on the turn and just went down in the best speed rating all day. Goes well second up and drawn to get a good run near the pace, probably trailing. Has the best Speed Rating so looks the one to beat.

Dangers in order:

5.Trumbull  won in two above average speed ratings back to back on Good tracks then drew wide in a tougher field and didn’t fire. Last start looked terrific before the start but was caught 5 wide in the open and ran the fastest sectional from the 800 to the 400, but naturally tired. Maps to get back and James sticks with him. Fast tempo will suit.

9.Hilo last start ran a very good third in a strong 3yo race and has the best rating on the light weight. Should land in a good spot and be a chance.

6.Black Magnum has run some good races off some tough and good runs. Forgive last start when he stumbled at the start and lost early momentum and got back then ran on ok on a wet track. Dry track and a good draw gives this strong fella chance.

8.Hightail won the Gosford Guineas in good time but was ridden out in his last trial to run a distant 5th with no blinkers, but was also ridden out to win his trial last campaign before running a game second fresh up. Blinkers back on today too.

4.Into The Abyss maps to her favourite trip just in behind a decent tempo. Had two trials and can upset s she has won fresh up and in a strong FM race on the Gold Coast got shuffled back and ran home well for a close 8th. This is easier that that field.

1.Ready To Profit two trials and the last one said she is ready to fire fresh up. If left alone in front, which could happen, she will prove hard to beat.

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

12.Bandersnatch was late scratched last week and was heavily backed to win in that stronger field. He maps to lead here and has run very good speed ratings on Good track from the front. His two trials will have him ready to win, confirmed by that strong money for him late last week. RP $3.20, $3.40FF

Dangers:

14.Thy Kingdom Come  ran a  strong second to the good Greyworm  over 1400m in a good speed rating last campaign. Two nice runs and will be fitter now from a good draw with James up.

6.Outrageous ran a very good third fresh up. She bled at her previous start so was likely to have been a bit soft fresh and will be fitter for this.

3.Phaistos  was just beaten fresh up and will be improved off that. DRawn wide but with a good track into it, is a realistic chance.

10.Asharani was very impressive two runs back coming from last and charging home wide to win in a good speed rating. Last start she was among other runners and didn’t seem happy. Drawn wide and if they go hard, she can get out wide and charge again.

5.Nicci’s Gold is a nice mare on a soft track. Nice run second up and fitter third up from a good draw.

9.Mr Reckless almost won second up over over 1400m in a strong field in good time. he then went on to win in good time over 2000m. He has had two trials and led in his last one and drew out late so he is fitter than his last campaign going into this. Chris Waller expressed confidence about his chances too.

Race 9

Confidence: 2/5

9.Agassi ran a game second last start in a very good speed rating and from his draw should land in a winning spot and from there, he has to be a realistic chance to win again. RP $3.80, $4.50 FF

Dangers:

6.Juventus  was a dominant winner here last start and will be spot on for this again. Has drawn out so needs luck early to slot in one off.

13.California Salto  good second fresh up and ran on ok in a smart fillies race last start. Third up and fitter from a good draw this time.

14.Wild About Her  fresh up got back, was held up in an on pace and ran home in the best sectionals. Goes well second up, drawn well and G Boss will give it every chance with that light weight dropping 7kgs and a good advantage over most. The upsetter.

Morphetville

Race 7

9.Toffee Tongue is a  tough filly and has an ideal action for a heavy track. In both her last two runs for second was just held up a little behind the smart Collette which is very good form for this. Drawn to use her early speed to land close enough to get out and put the pressure on these near the turn rather than having to chase them down.

5.Vegas Jewel has run some good races in strong races but her action says a heavy track won’t suit.

Race 8

An even tempo likely.

Confidence: 2/5

16.Away Game just keeps on stepping up. Last start she jumped well, got a good run and was hardly touched to win in a good speed rating on the heavy track. She has drawn to bounce and get a good run again and with the 47kgs against the older horses ( 9.5kgs over most here which is a 4 lengths advantage ), plus she drops from 56kgs last start to 47kgs, a 9kg drop, and for not a big filly, she will definitely notice that, and that could just about get her home.RP $3.80, $4.00 FF so not a lot of value in her.

1.Sunlight needed that fresh up run when a bit keen and second. Hasn’t raced on a heavy track but her action says she could handle it. Drawn wide and has the speed to get over 2nd outer or 3 wide on the pace. Won 11 from 22 starts so has that will to win.

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!