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Saturday 9 May 2020 preview below

Summary: Rapido Chaparro let us down with the Quality bets but still up 5.4 units for the weekend. The Head to Head multi came in again $30 for every $10. The quaddies missed but they didn’t pay a lot and that is the nature of chasing them.

Race 9

Rapido Chaparro has been holding his price and should be able to lead ok, put the pressure on near the turn and make them run him down. Had every chance in front and didn’t keep going. Back again tomorrow with a preview of the Manukau Greyhounds by 11.45 a.m.

 

Race 8

8.Snitz looks very fit and there has been good money for it. 7.Signore Fox  is ready to go a good race and if they go hard, he will be charging late. Snitz got the break on them and held on well. back for the last where everything is looking good for Rapido Chaparro to lead all the way as the inside is a good place to be.

Race 7

9.House Of Cartier looks terrific. She won really well last start and if she can get out and get handy one off, she is a good chance. She has been the best backed in the race and owned by a couple of Kiwis. Had her chance and Another Dollar keeps live in the quaddie.

Race 6

11.Loveseat is going to get back to last and one thing looks pretty sure, it is going to be a fast early pace and at least even from there. She looks terrific and I wouldn’t be surprised if Hughy looked to pinch runs near the rail and look to come down the inner part as the gaps should be there. Needs a bit of luck but she can win if she gets it. Had her chance. Alive in the quaddie.

Race 5

14.Masked Crusader looks relaxed and just needs half a decent ride from Tommy to win. Not much value in him so maybe a multi with Rapido Chaparro could be worth taking. No photo required there! That inside from the head on is not cutting up as bad as further out so looks good for Rapido Chaparro in the last.

Update 3.47 p.m. Randwick suggested quaddie for $46.20 for 10%

R6   2, 3, 7, 10, 11, 13
R7    1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14
R8    1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8
R9     4

Saver with #14 in the last

R6   2, 3, 7, 10, 11, 13
R7   1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14
R8   1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8
R9    14

Randwick race 4 Caulfield quaddie below

7.Surreal Step  is Lizzies pick of the yard and with the cut out of the track, he should be leading or trailing on a moderate tempo and is a nice eachway chance. I couldn’t have Subpoenaed at that price as she needs room and time to wind up.

Suggested Caulfied Quaddie looks very open so need to gpo short in one leg and Hangman looks the best one. Third up, Blinkers on which it needs, handles a wet track, and ridden by a Kiwi rider- Mick Dee!

$50.40 for 10%

R6   8
R7   5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
R8   1, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12, 16
R9   3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10, 11, 12

Race 3 update: 5.Lesage should lead, with 8Sophelia trailing and 2.Freehearted 3 back inner and with the inside being no disadvantage, a box quinella or trifecta with those 3 could be worth just a small bet. Not the result we wanted!

Race 2 update: If you took the H2H multi you will be watching those two carefully. Money is steady for him too. 8.Overlord is an eachway chance in an open race. 2nd after making up plenty from last to get the H2H multi up and hopefully cover your quaddies for today. Intersting that Bowman on Overlord really wanted to keep to the inside and it does look better on the inside head on. So on pace and near the rail looks the bias at this stage, but as David Walsh explained to us, that can change throughout the day, especially if the forecast showers come. Nice start to the quaddie anyway. – Apologies for the slowing of the site- there are a few using it!

Race 2 Suggested early quaddie

$27 for 10%

Race 2

Leg 1     1-3-4-5-6-7-8-10-11 $10

Leg 2    2-5-7-8-9

Leg 3    2-9-10

Leg 4   12-14

Race 1 update:

Head to Heads and nice multi to return $29.70 for every $10 

Race 1 Luna Mia $1.80   to beat Pauper Easily covered

Luna Mia will get a more economical run and has rated much better in stronger fields than pauper who had his chance fresh up in an average SR.

Race 3 Overlord $1.65 to beat Valaquenta

Overlord, a very nice galloper from the Waller stable, did well to run third to Ocean Emperor  on debut and was on pace. Looks better ridden colder and should snag here and run past Valaquenta over 1200m. Valaquenta has been a drifter from the Cummings stable and gives Overlord 2kgs

3.Luna Mia, as Lizzie mentioned, looks fitter than her last start and is ready to win. Nice eachway bet. Held up in traffic and ran on nicely considering the tempo favoured on pace.

Update delayed as the H2H prices aren’t posted yet! Will post as soon as possible.

Update 9 a.m. Saturday ( Next update by 1 p.m. )

Good morning,

With a Soft 5 at Randwick and the forecast for just the odd shower it is likely to stay there or may get an upgrade. The wind is forecast to be only 15km/h, half of last week’s speed so that shouldn’t be as strong an influence. Caulfield has around 12mm of rain forecast on the Good 4 track so is a watch and see, especially for the quaddie there.

Bet of the day and speed map special  Randwick Race 6 11.Loveseat $4 FF

Value bet of the day Race 9 4.Rapido Chaparro $4.80 Ff in from $5.50 Friday and is a Quality bet. 3.2 units at $5.50 Ff as posted on Friday

Sneakys of the day Randwick Race 1 3.Luna Mea $9.50 and Morphetville race 8 5.Miyake $14 and $3.70 Scratched

Ian S who won the Heads Up prize this week, has a $20 multi with the Loveseat and Rapido Chaparro to return $400

I’ll be posting updates before most races at Sydney and will post the quaddie bet or bets by 4.15 p.m.

Saturday preview (

Heads Up below featuring part 2 of David Walsh, who holds the most number of winners ridden in New Zealand. We preview the South Australian Derby and give you a chance to win a $20 multi.

Quality bets so far are detailed below.

Gold Coast Friday

Race 9 6.42 p.m.

Confidence: 3/5 Quality bet 4.4 units at $2.90 FF Yes 12.8 units returned for an 8.4 unit net profit.

8.Potro Duro  looked good winning second up here last start when she jumped well, settled 1x, and came with a well timed run and always looked the winner from the urn. The Speed rating was above average and she was easing down on the post. In the same class and still has a winning weight, so with her natural early speed she will be able to get on the pace and then take a sit behind wider runners coming round her, then get every chance to power over these again. Scratchjed from Race 4 at Doombedn tomorrow as this is easier and has the same stake. RP $2.00, 2.90 FF , 4.4 units in the Value Staking Plan

Randwick

Race 1

The speed maps shows good speed right across the field

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race. Luna Mia looks the best eachway chance. Maybe the Head to Head could be the bet to look at, whatever it is.

3.Luna Mia two starts back ran very good third  in a very fast time over 1280m to the smart Bobbing and my (SR) Speed Rating rated that 131 which is outstanding. I checked the time too and is was 0.31 slower but still a very fast SR.  Last start drew wide and caught back 4w open in an on pace race and did well to loom and run fifth. Ran an unlucky 8th here in the strong Kosciusko. Drawn to land midfield one off behind what should be at least an even speed, so the gaps should open and this track with the uphill first half of the front straight, tends to favour closers anyway. RP $6, $9.00 and is a good eachway chance.

Dangers:

6.Hellenism two starts back here drew wide, began well, snagged to last and sustained a big finish wide to get up. Last start 6th outer on moderate speed and battled well for third. Looked in need of the run and drawn well here and fitter.

10.Ready to Humble looked good winning his last two leading and on pace.

5.Glamour Cat has early speed to land handy and did well to win last start getting back. \

Other thoughts:

15.Tejori bolted in fresh up sitting 3w on the pace in a good SR ( Speed Rating) Drawn out and likely to sit 3 wide again with good speed under her or use petrol to get 2nd outer, so will be vulnerable in the last 100m with her short choppy stride. $4.60 is too short against a stronger field.

11.Pauper has won well in Good time. Drawn wide enough and would need luck. Blinkers on a plus.

1.Cock Match won well last start over 1000m. Likely to settle midfield and find a few too good.

Race 2

This is a tough race. Many chances and with the lack of experience with all runners, anything can happen. Field job for the early quaddie.

Race 3

Quality bets are on two runners. 4 units on 1.Lashes at $5 FF and saver on 6.Adelong at $2.50 FF for 2.4 units to return 6

Confidence: 3/5 that one of the two below will win this.

1.Lashes fresh up last campaign got back on the inner but once balanced up put them away and second was race rival Adelong. Her speed ratings and sectionals, plus the way she gallops, means she is going tin a few more races. Her two recent trials has shown she ready to fire fresh up again and looks stronger. The negative is the draw but I can see her being able to get in 3 wide with cover behind what should be an even tempo, and from there, can win fresh up. RP $2.40, $4.80 Ff

Dangers:

6.Adelong last campaign looked very good winning in above average speed ratings and is a strong galloper with an ideal action. Fresh up the trainer thought she was half a run short before the start, drew wide and worked a bit to get 2nd outer and kept finding to finish 2nd to race rival Lesage. This time, with natural improvement out of that, and dropping in weight from a good draw, means she is very well placed either leading or trailing. I’d prefer to see her hunted out to lead as she has the strength and class to lead these all the way with her main danger being Lashes who beat her fresh up last campaign. RP $2.40 $2.40 Ff

5.Lesage  showed good early speed to lead Adalong last start and just clung on over the 100m. Likely to sit outside Adalong this time and hard to see her turning the tables this time.

Race 4

The speed map shows

Confidence: 2/5

2.Subpoenaed last start here loomed up to top filly Rubisaki and tried very hard to get past her but found her too good. But her closing sectionals indicated a top performance. This time she has drawn the inside and should land around 3 back inner behind an even tempo and with the 1.5kgs off, that brings her down to a very winnable weight but the negative is she is a very extravagant galloper and will need to get out well before the 200m mark to get wound up to beat these so the $3.20 Ff is rock bottom for her. RP $3.80

Dangers:

Either 9.Celestial Falls and 10.Miss Einstein could win if Subpoenaed gets balanced up too late.

Race 5

Confidence: 4/5

5.Masked Crusader is a very good horse who has backed his impressive wins up with very good closing sectionals when compared to better races on the day. Gets in on a winning weight of 55kgs. The negative is he will likely land midfield among other runners and need to get out in time to unleash. But the uphill straight will help bring the front runners back to him. RP $1.50, $1.75 FF Not a quality bet as little value

Dangers:

There’s nothing in here capable of beating him if he gets a fair go in the straight.

Race 6

The Speed Map shows Gone Bye, Shock Alert, Canasta and Love Shack Baby

Confidence: 3/5

11.Loveseat two starts back fresh up got back over the 1600m and closed off the best of anything running the fastest L200 of the race. Then next up she got back a clear last over the 1550m but once balanced up, really quickened stride and ran past them quickly and eased down to win with plenty in the tank in the second fastest L200 11.45 all day including all the sprints. I thought she would be one to watch in that race as she has won her last two races over 2000m and 2400m. But she was just a class above those. This is harder but she gets up to 1800m, which is what she needs, plus there is going to be at least an even tempo which will allow in-form Hugh Bowman, to get her out and balanced up after turning in and with her sprinting ability, power past these with the weight advantage. Hugh has stuck with her since winning on her four starts back. RP $3.20, Opened $7 Ff but been heavily backed into $3.70 FF so the value has gone so is not a Quality bet.

Dangers:

3.Botega ran a top second to Kinane last start. He is likely to get back and is still learning, but can win with the right run.

2.Laure Me In almost beat Welsh Legend and drawn to get an ideal run behind the good speed.

10.Welsh Legend did well to win last start easily beating Yonkers who won next up.

13.Gone Bye last start did very well after burning early for the first 400m and just went down last week. Gets in on a light weight with the allowance. If he doesn’t get taken on too much he should be the one Loveseat has to run down.

Race 7

The speed map shows Greysful Glamour getting her way in front.

Confidence: 1/5

6.Greysful Glamour was run down late here last start by a good horse. Should get an uncontested lead again and be hard to run down. RP $5.50

Dangers:

1.Yulong Prince got back and ran on ok last start. Better draw helps. Real stayer and the harder they go, the better his chances.

9.House Of Cartier got a decent draw last start and won really well. Sghe has drawn wide here but she has the early speed to get on the pace as there are not a lot of runners with early speed. If she can get in one off without doing to much, she is very fit and can do it for the Kiwi owners.

13.Ilwendo Led and won easily last start in a good time over 2200m but a weaker field. Will likely take a sit just off Greysful Glamour and could place. Trialed up ok recently for 4th.

14.Aliferous gets in on a winning weight and with a good run, should be right in this.

11.Scarlet Dream strong second fresh up and wet track no good last start. Fitter and 2000m on a good track suits.

4.Brimham Rocks found the line nicely fresh up and if they go hard enough, can be in it.

Race 8

The speed map shows Greyworm leading and a moderate to even tempo likely.

Confidence: 1/5

1.Tactical Advantage was very impressive unleashing a fast late dash to get last start. With a decent run with cover, he can repeat.

Dangers:

3.Greyworm likely to ping and try and lead them dominate. If he does, can win.

8.Snitz  won well in good time fresh up. Drawn well and nice weight.

2.Deprive would win if he was at his best, but that is the query.

6.All Too Royal better than his last start. Good draw helps.

7.Signore Fox  can fly late if given a quiet run and maps to get that- the upsetter.

Race 9

The speed map shows Rapido Chaparro leading and setting his own terms.

Confidence: 3/5 a Quality bet with 3.2 units at $5.50 FF

4.Rapido Chaparro. Nothing else has his early speed and the outside barrier means he can just slide over and lead. Now we have to figure out if he has the form to say he can still be there at the winning post! In his last two campaigns he has won third up over 1600m and 1900m when leading all the way with 60kgs, 6kgs over the minimum and  62kgs, 8kgs over the minimum. Last start he started out of his class in a BM78 with 62.5kgs, 9kgs over the minimum and led and held on for a game second to Grand Piano, giving him 4.5kgs. This time, he steps up in class to a BM** with 58.5kgs, 5.5kgs over the minimum and is only giving Grand Piano 2.5kgs. I allow 2kgs per length over this distance so that’s more than enough to turn the tables on him and we can expect more improvement out of Rapido Chaparro. Last start he led and set an even tempo but his lack of fitness combined with the big weight allowed Grand Piano to get by him late. He is fitter now and Grand Piano maps to get a harder run, so the $2.50 on him just seems too short. RP $3.40, $5.50 after opening at $7

Dangers:

14.Nordicus  has been going good races from wide draws and he does have the early speed to land 3 back inner or even trail. With the light weight, he looks the main danger

Morphetville

Race 8

SA Derby

Confidence: 2/5

5.Miyake  is bred to stay a strong 2500m and has the build to win this. Last start in a strong BM70 race over 1900m got back to last from a wide draw and relaxed well. He had to pick a path from the turn near the rail to win but always looked the winner if he could get the gaps. His peed rating was good and so were his closing sectionals in the context of the day. His dam, Star Fashion ran a close second in the Oaks here in 2014. Chris Waller didn’t bring stable start Kinane here for this and he won the oaks last week with Toffee Tongue. He has drawn wide but will drop back and look to track into it and use that strength to upset these. RP $9, $14FF and $3.60 FF

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!