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Sunday Specials below


Manukau Dogs

Good morning,

I’ve spent a few hours going through the Formpro Ratings site which saves me so much time looking at the replays, speed maps, best adjusted times, the predictor and much more. Quite simply, if I couldn’t have that, I just wouldn’t bother doing the form for the dogs and having a few action bets. No Quality bets. It is a day where you can set aside a small amount and hopefully have a bit of fun backing a couple of winners.

Nearly all dogs are fresh so it does make it harder to assess the form, but if we can find the dogs that can lead at value, then we stand a chance of making a dollar.

Bet of the day Race 9 9.Buddy Boom $2.20 Ff

Value bet of the day Race 2 1.Fernando Charm $6 Ff 1st $3.90 

Speed Map Special Race 1 1.Dignity Dented $3.30 FF

Sneakys of the day Race 7 5.Miss Claude $10 Ff and Race 8 1.Stay Rich $11 Ff

Multi of the day Race 2 1.Fernando Charm $6 Ff and Race 9 9.Buddy Boom $2.20 $10 returns $132 Ff Buddy Boom race abandoned so a $60 for $10 return 

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

1.Dignity Dented  likes the rail and from box 1 should get his chance. Began well last Thursday from this box and ran an improver’s third at Cambridge where he ran wide on the last turn. But he rails much better here so just needs a clean beginning to be right in this. Has the best time of these here over a sprint in the last 90 days. 2 dog tends to veer out, which will help. RP $3.00, $3.30 FF

Dangers:

6.Crackling Gal on Thursday drew box 8 and pinged out and led all the way. She is a tough girl to head off when she gets clear air in front of her. But she can be a bit hit and miss and the 5 dog veers out a bit and the 7 dog veers left, so could get a squeeze up if she misses it.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5 Best bet here is to back Fernando Charm for 6 units at $6.50 and Grindelwald for 10 units to cover both bets.

1.Fernando Charm in his last 5 starts he has drawn box 7 or 8 and in nearly all of them he has jumped evenly but been forced over extra ground or got a bad run. Last Thursday he drew wide and jumped on the lead but three others did as well and he did well to run 4th in an adjusted time that would have beaten many C1 dogs that day. So back in box 1 with his usual beginning, he can lead all the way. RP $4.00, $6.50 FF

Dangers:

7.Grindelwald  is an import that has shown early speed so in a weak field with a good beginning should be the main danger.

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

6.Tribal Conquest has the early speed to lead if Thrilling Dora misses it slightly and can win if that happens. RP $5, $9 Ff

Dangers:

Thrilling Dora jumped first on Thursday and led all the way in the fastest time of the day. Same grade here but first time on track is always a query.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

2.Ma Chere  has the fastest time here of 18.67. She can miss it occasionally though but the one dog can ping and likes the rail so she can follow him through. RP $4.00 $5.00

Dangers:

8.Rod’s Girl pinged and led all the way here winning in 18.70 for the C0 final. She drops out of C3/4 races and from box 8 should get a clear run to the first bend.

1.Noise Maker can lead out and rails well but may be caught late by one of the above two.

Race 5 First leg of the Terminating Pick 6 and amazingly again, no guaranteed pool. Even if it was a $5,000 guaranteed pool, punters would think, OK I’ll have a bet for that at least.

The speed map shows 3 and 1 ( Veers out) leading out from 7 and 8 out wide

3.Botany Sandy maps to lead out and has the best two adjusted sprint times around here in the last 90 days. She won her maiden here last start from box 7 in 18.86 and usually jumps well and true. On debut she ran second to Night Ace from from 2 and he went on to win 2 of his next 3 starts. So she goes well fresh and needs to jump well to clear Go Kiki who veers out. the 4 dogs veers out so that should give her a bit more room to drive to the lead early. RP $3.00, $3.20 Ff

Dangers:

7.Bigtime Gal has the early speed to get 2nd outer and be a chance from there- has the 2nd best time here.

8.Tamantha  has the speed to cross with a clean beginning from box 8 and be a chance if she does.

6.My Kirsty  ran a good 4th, just behind race rival Tamantha, here on debut. Rated strongly down south over middle distances

Race 6

The speed map shows 4 and 8 leading out from 5 and 6

1.Asserting Power has two of the 4 best adjusted times around here and can begin well enough from box 1 to be handy. 4.Audrette always runs wide down the front straight so it leaves it open for an inside dog to come through and win, and he looks to fit that bill at nice eachway odds. RP $5, $8 Ff

Dangers:

4.Audrette  should lead but tends to give it away when running wide down the front straight. If you back her hold your breath when she turns for home. Has the third best Adjusted time here.

6.Our Hotrod has the second best time here and can ping the lids.

3.Nexus has run 18.69 and with a good beginning under Audrette, is a chance.

Race 7

The speed map shows plenty of early speed from 1-2-3-4-7 with 4.Ashen always pushing wider into the first bend so dogs outside it will be in trouble.

Confidence: 1/5

5.Miss Claude has the two best adjusted times here in the last 6 months and if she pings fresh up she can upset these dropping back in class. RP $7, $11 FF

Dangers:

7.Thrilling Peta  showed her potential here at her last start in September when beating Carbon Tiger by 7L and he went on to win plenty more races. If she can ping and lead she will be very hard to beat.

4.Ashen  with a clear run and with a freshen up, could do it. tends to via out though so needs luck.

1.Electric Dancer has 3 of the top 5 best adjusted times here in the last 90 days. But has not won from 8 box 1 starts as she likes to try and get out around the top bend.

2.Kiwi Gal has to be in quaddies in an even race which will come down to how they jump.

Race 8

Early speed from 1 and 5 with 2 and 4 in behind.

Confidence: 1/5

1.Stay Rich should be able lead clearly here with the 2 and 3 dogs veering out causing havoc early. When she resumed on Thursday she began well but got checked into the first bend and lost her chance but she came back nicely. If the winning post was 30 metres short of where it is today, she would be a $1,50 chance but it will be that last 30 metres you will need to ride her a bit harder to hang on.  She has the third fastest time round here. RP $6, $11Ff

Dangers:

5.Frosty Blaze  maps to lead but will need to avoid the 2 and 3 dogs to do it. If he does, he can win.

3.Zugzwang can fly home if he can be close enough on the turn and not get too beaten up into the first bend.

4.Kuridrani  has the best time here in the last 6 months and with a clean beginning could prove he is the fastest dog.

Race 9 and the match up of the day.

The early speed comes from 5 and 9 with 1 and 2 in behind near the inner.

Buddy Boom and Carbon Tiger dominate the best times around here in the last 6 months sharing the top ten fastest adjusted times.

Confidence: 3/5

9.Buddy Boom gets the nod from box 7 as he rates on top in the Predictor over Carbon Tiger with daylight to the rest. Plus Carbon Tiger is a big fella and is likely to be found wanting over the last bit where as Buddy won’t be. RP $1.70, $2.20 Ff

Race 10

The speed map shows 7 and 5 leading out with the rest looking very even in behind to the first bend.

 5.Ginny Weasley maps to lead and based on her last Thursday’s run where she drew box 6 and pinged out and was 2nd outer, then loomed 70m out as though she was going to win but battled but still ran one of the fastest adjusted times all day. She has to improve of that and ran a very good third here over 527m when leading out and just tired late. She has the best sprint adjusted time in the last 6 months so just needs her usual good beginning as the 7 dog stays out and be the one to beat. RP $3.00, $3.50 FF

Dangers:

1.Get Me Home  strong second on Thursday from box 5 and from box 1 with a clean beginning looks the main danger.

 

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!