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Saturday 30 May preview below

 

Update 4.10 p.m. No suggested bet for Caulfield or bet for the syndicate there.

For the quaddie syndicate we have a relatively small investment at Rosehill on two bets.

Bet 1 $346 for 20% Yes $192 returned

R6   1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14
R7   1, 2, 3, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12, 14, 16, 18, 19
R8   1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 12, 13, 15
R9   6

Bet 2 $202 for 30% yes $288 returned Total $480 returned

R6    5, 6, 8, 9, 11, 12, 13, 14
R7    1, 2, 3, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12, 14, 16, 18, 19
R8    1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 15
R9    6

Max, who won the Heads Up multi this week, has the multi with the GOAT’s two best sports bets. Warriors game to have 44.5 points or more and Panthers -2 to return $70

Doomben Suggested quaddie is:

$50.40 for 10%

R6   3, 5, 7, 9, 12, 15, 19
R7    4, 15
R8    1, 3, 12
R9    1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 8, 10, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17

Update 12.33 p.m. Next update by 4.10 p.m. with any quaddies for the Syndicate and suggested quaddies

1 Quality bet today Rosehill race 5 1.Noble Boy $5 FF 4 units a win

Bet of the day Rosehill Race 9 6.Adelong $1.90 FF 1st $1.90 

Value bet of the day Race 5 1.Noble Boy $5 FF and is a Quality bet 4 units at $5 FF Missed – had his chance

Speed map special Doomben race 8 12.Exhilirates $4.80 FF 2nd

Sneaky of the day Caulfield race 5 1.Dyslexic $9 FF

Lay of the Day Rosehill race 5 8. Fituese $1.65 on a heavy track out to 1200m against horses that are very good wet trackers. 2nd

Best Head to Head is Rosehill Race 1 Andermatt $1.70 to beat Proud Mia Yes

Multi of the day is the Head to head above with

Caulfield Race 5 The Head to Head with Dyslexic $1.80 to beat Pariano $10 returns $30.60 Missed

No Quality bets so far. There are some 3/5 Confidence bets but the value isn’t there for a Quality bet. Next Update by 1 p.m. Saturday.

Sydney

Heavy 9 with a fine day forecast which means it could get a bit holding and only a certain number of horses n handle that. Plus race fitness will be more of a factor. Long straight of 408m so most horses get their chance on or off even tempos.

Race 1

Tricky race with a few chances. Good chance to see how the track is playing.

The Head to Head Andermatt $1.70 to beat Proud Mia looks good value.

3.Andermatt  came from the rear to win easily on debut with a good wet track action. His sire Snitzel has a good wet track record of 16% on wet tracks and Hugh Bowman jumps on. He will get back but with the fast tempo likely , he can swamp these with Hugh Bowman up down the long straight.

1.Anders  was nailed by Peltzer two back when he was a bit green on a Good track. Then next up he was a bit keen after hunting through to lead and won well but they ran 1.03.4 for the 1100m which is good time, so on a track where they are going to be running at ;least 2 seconds slower time, with his action being more suitable to a better track, he is a query.

11.Proud Mia  won easily on debut as a hot pot but has a dry track action and with pressure likely early on, she is going to be vulnerable in the last 100 metres.

5.Supremo  has trailed up very nicely and drawn to get a good run. Money has come for it but 50/50 on a heavy track though and has been scratched from wet tracks recently.

9.Sweet Reply  just won on debut and has a dryer track action. Drawn to get a good run but heavy track is the query.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

6.Leg Work Yes 1st $4.70  has run two very good races  and will be very fit, which is a plus today. Gets back but with a decent tempo likely, will be charging late back in class.

Dangers:

9.Deepwood Vale  found the line well late fresh up after being hampered in the straight. She has an ideal wet track action and gets in with a nice weight with James McDonald up. She won second up last campaign and has won over 1300m third up. Strong filly right in this.

2.Ready to Humble led off the rail last start and fought well for second on a Soft 5 1.11.8 track. The start before he won on a 1.13 track. He drew wide last start and had to work a bit to get on the pace so did well. 1400m should suit. Giving weight to a good horse in Leg Work though and if taken on, can get done late with the extra weight.

7.Art Cadeau  should handle a wet track and is very now third up. Drawn to get all favours and if inside on pace is an advantage, he is right in it.

Race 3

Tricky race with many chances- the H2Hs aren’t any value

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5 but depends on how the race is run

2.Sure Knee very unlucky in a Group 3 race last start.  is the best proven horse in the race but will get back and with not a lot of pace in the race, that will be against her. So if you can bet in running, wait till you can see the race unfold and if there are spaces in between the runners, she can definitely win. But if they are bunched up and some are getting keen, then Soldier of Love looks the way to go. RP $4.70, $6 FF

Dangers:

11.Soldier Of Love 1st $2.70  is a tough strong galloper ideally placed here on a wet track to lead and be the one to run down. Strong win last start and fitter now third up, so ticks a few boxes.

4.Trumbull  is a bit hit and miss but if he jumps then he will get his chance on a moderate pace.

Race 5

Confidence: 3/5 Quality bet 4 units a win at $5 FF

1.Noble Boy ran on well for 6th here fresh up and looked to have a bit to offer. A Soft to heavy track is ideal for this big strong sprinter and he is 3 from 3 on Soft to heavy tracks and maps to get every chance. Looks the value to beat Fituese who is suspect on a wet track over 1200m. Gets 3kgs off with the capable 3kg claimer Louise day on board and maps to get the right run to pounce on a tiring Fituese late. RP $2.50, $5.00 Ff

Dangers:

8.Fituese has looked good winning here races. She was a quality bet last start and did it well over the 1100m on a Good 4 track and the start before won well on a 57 for 1000m track. BUT, she steps to 1200m now but with an even tempo likely on a soft to heavy track, if you are on at 41.70, I’m picking you will be a bit nervous when Noble Boy is coming at her over the last 100 metres. She is just no value at $1.70 2nd after getting every chance and was outfinished 

5.Esperance 1st $6  two good runs and drawn to get every chance.

10.Cuban Royale has a good wet track form and action. Drawn to get a good run and with no weight, is a place chance.

2.Sandbar has an action better suited to a better track as does likely leader Murillo.

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

9.Riva Capri really found the line strongly last start second up in a strong BM70 race with 61.5kgs. She steps up to a BM78 here but drops to 57kgs and James McDonald jumps on. She looked very good winning at Wanganui on a heavy track and third up with the positive of James McDonald jumping on, she does have the early speed to land in the first 6 and with a moderate tempo likely, she can get home at nice odds here. Negative is I’d prefer if it was 1500m or 1600m, so maybe next start she can be backed with a lot more confidence. RP $4.50, $6.50 Ff

Dangers:

6.Miss Einstein had her chanced last and ran a solid 2nd. Shouldn’t get so far back here from the good draw and be a chance.

5.Statuesquely  looked good winning her recent trial and could lead these a merry chase. If inside and on pace is winning, she could steal it.

11.Bound To Win  1st $6.80 won well second up with the blinkers on and fitter now. Has a good wet track action.

13.Theeood  will be charging late and if they go hard, can win. Very fit an ideal action for a slog home.

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

18.Bottega won really well last start and his racing manners have got better in his last two starts. Very fit and gets in on a winning weight and handles a wet track well. Just needs a good ride from the wide draw.

2.Yulong Prince  is ready to win and just needs the right run.

9.Mask Of Time  back on a wet track will be ideal. Will be up on the pace too.

7.Wu Gok 1st $18  has great form on a heavy track and has to be a chance.

16.Aliferous ran a strong 4th last start and she should get a winning run on a light weight.

19.Rapido Chaparro with a soft lead could bounce back.

Race 8

5.Starspangled Rodeo is an ex Kiwi horse who won really sell fresh up. He is a big strong fella well suited to a wet track. Maps to get an ideal run. RP $4.00, $6.00 FF

Dangers:

1.Irish Songs  is a good galloper on wet tracks and with the allowance, gets in very well here.

3.Juventus maps to get the ideal run and is very fit.

4.Ljungberg  has good wet track form and is a definite improver.

Race 9

Confidence: 3/5

6.Adelong 1st won well and showed that will to win. is peaking now third up after a strong win last start. No wet track form but she has an ideal action for it. She is a really genuine galloper who has the strength and will to win, so if the inside and on pace is ok, she will definitely be the one to beat where her main dangers are fresh up and lacking race fitness. With the scratching out of the way, she maps to lead. RP $1.70, $1.95 FF

Caulfield

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

6.Crystal Dreamer looked very good closing off in 32.25 and 10.95 on debut. He has drawn to get a good run and is bred to win a few races. Plenty of upside. With a head wind likely for the first half the race, it could set up nicely for him. RP 3.60, $4.50 FF

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

1.Dyslexic this is easier and back to 1200m suits. Should get a better run and with 2kgs off, is a nice eachway bet. RP $7

( The head to head with Dyslexic $1.80 to beat Pariano looks worth taking too.)

Danger:

11.Jamaican Hurry good win in good SR last start. Gets back but suited by the chute.

Race 6 First leg of the quaddie.

4.News Girl racing in top form and gives her best every time. Negative is the wide draw.

8.Hawker Hurricane  is a nice horse and will find this drop back easier.

7.The Centaurian goes well fresh and drawn to get every chance.

5.Tavisan 1st $7 was caught in the slow part of the track last start. Will take catching on a fair track.

6.Inn Keeper  drawn to get all favours and peaking now.

Race 7

Confidence: 3/5

6.Sikorsky  top win last start and was a little fresh, so will be fitter for this. Drawn awkwardly but Olly will have that worked out and he looks a class above these. RP $2.20, $2.30 FF

5.Bartholemeu Dias  is debuting and looked good in a recent jumpout. Market moves will give a good lead.

Race 8

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race.

16.Kaplumuch top run 3w open in good SR last start. Wide draw so needs  good ride. RP $6, $8 FF

12.Jumbo Ozaki is nicely placed here but may end up 3 back inner and need luck.

1.Heptagon1st $9  should get a good run and is fitter with 3kgs off.

6.Price Range  drawn to get a good run with 2kgs off.

Race 9

4.Inverloch will likely lead and if the inside is ok, can hold on.

8.Mahamedeis 1st $4.50  peaking now and drawn ideally.

1.Pacodali is a tough horse and with a better run likely, can do it.

2.Carzoff  will be running on strongly and is very fit.

Doomben

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

4.Celestial Falls 2nd game second last start and won really well second up at Flemington over 1800m in a good SR. Drawn to land near the pace and may have the advantage on the favourite from there. RP $4, $5 FF

Dangers:

1.Rocha Clock well placed at SW and 1600m suits against own sex. Will get back and with an even tempo likely, she can get over these.

Race 6

Confidence:2/5

3.Scallopini 1st $5.80  has form against good horses and goes well fresh. Plenty of early speed in this and will settle behind midfield, but will be charging late. RP $5, $7 FF

 

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5 ( Update 3 p.m. Unfortunately the rider, Matt McGillivray, has been injured and no replacement rider has been announced yet. )

15.Ilwendo has won twice on the course from three starts and last start at  Randwick over the same distance, led and was given little peace, but only run down late by race rival Another Dollar in a very good SR. He meets him 3 kgs better off which equates to a 2 length advantage over a middle distance. He maps to lead again and the two others that will go forward will be content to sit outside him and trail. So on 54kgs with Matt McGillivray on, who has won on him before leading all the way, he can lead these all the way. RP $3.60, $4.40 FF

 

Race 8

Confidence:3/5

12.Exhilirates 2nd $1.70  fresh up got back from a wide draw and after being held up at a vital stage, worked home strongly flattening out like she needs more ground. Last campaign she ran third to Alligator Blood over 1400m and 2nd to Loving Gaby. She is fitter and even though she maps to back on the inner, there is a fast tempo very likely, which will allow her to weave her way through and be very hard to keep out getting 2kgs off the boys and has the equal best Rating in the field of 96. RP $4.50, $6 FF

 

About Neil Davis

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Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!