Update 4.30 p.m.
Ok, I’ve decided to spend $470.40 on a 10% Terminating Pick 6 Enjoy both rides!
R1 1, 4, 11, 14
R2 1, 6
R3 1, 2, 4, 7, 8, 10, 11
R4 3, 5, 16
R5 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 11, 12
R6 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 11, 12
Update 3.35 p.m. We may take a Terminating Pick 6 if the pot gets up a bit. If we do I’ll post it by 4.45. p.m.
We have spent $1260 on one 10% bet at Flemington. $463 returned
R6 3, 4, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14
R7 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
R8 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
R9 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12, 13, 14, 17
Suggested quaddie for subscribers at Flemington is :
$60 for 5% in a very open one
R7 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
R8 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
R9 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 12, 13, 17
Update 12.30 p.m. Next update 4.15 p.m. with the Quaddie syndicate bet
Recommended multi is with the two head to heads below $10 returns $32
Randwick Race 4 head to head Re Edit $1.80 to beat Loveseat. No The Soft 7 track takes the edge off Loveseat and Re Edit is at the peak of her form.
Race 7 Head to Head Snitz $1.80 to beat Jungle Edge. Yes Snitz likely to land outside Jungle Edge and with the 4kg advantage and being a very progressive horse, Snitz should beat the old fella home.
Next Update by 12.30 p.m. For the quaddie syndicate, Flemington does look like the best chance of a big payout so I’ll post the bet or bets for that meeting by 4.15 p.m. so I can see how the track is playing and any significant market moves to take into account.
Bet of the Day Eagle Farm Race 9 7.Aquitaine $2.70 FF Yes
Value bet of the day Randwick Race 4 8.Re-Edit $7 Quality bet 4 units a win Just wasn’t in the mood
Speed map special Randwick Race 2 5.Money Magic $5 FF 2.9 units a win 2nd
Other Quality bet Randwick Race 9 9.Itz Lily 3 units at $5 now out to $5.50 FF Missed after getting caught in the slow lane
Update 5.05 p.m.Another Quality bet: Randwick Race 9 9.Itz Lily 3.3 units at $5 FF
Update 12.59 p.m. Next update by 6 p.m.
The GOAT’s best sports bet all week is the Panthers to win 13+ at $2.70 Yes easily covered with a pretty big bounce!
Ian S who won the Heads Up multi has the panthers 13+ into Randwick Race 4 8.Re Edit at & to return $378 ( Go Re -Edit! )
Two Quality bets so far at Randwick.
1.Acrphobic won very well last start over 1400m on debut and looks like he will handle a wet track ok. Drawn to lead or trail and get every chance. $3.40, $3.20
3.Yangtze River good horse that has a good action for a wet track by Frankel. Will get back but if they go hard enough, looks the main danger.
2.Jeronimus won on a Good 4 last start in a Good Sr but his action suggests a Soft to heavy track will not boost his chances.
Confidence: 3/5 Quality bet 2.9 units at $5.50 Ff
5.Money Magic did very well last start after having a tough run and fought well for third on a much better Soft 5 track with an SR of 107. Her action and breeding, being by So You Think, says she will relish a soft to heavy track and from the good barrier, should be able to lead or be on it, and being third up and fitter now ( with a quiet trial recently) she looks well placed to beat these on 56.5kgs. RP $3.80, $5.50 FF
2.Kirwan’s Lane got all favours last start and won really well but this is just as hard and he has drawn wide. His action and form says a soft to heavy is ok, but a wide draw from this short run to the first bend will make it tough for him.
Very open race- maybe the head to head is the way to go when it gets posted.
Confidence: 3/5 Quality bet 4 units a win at $7
8.Re Edit put in a top run at Rosehill last start on a better Soft 5 track beating race rival Humbolt Current. I’ve always liked this mare and I’ve been waiting for her to show her true ability and she did last start flashing home late for 2nd and was in front just after the post. The wet track is dieal for her and from the draw, I’m picking Sam will look to let her jump and relax where she is comfortable around midfield. From there, she relaxes well and with the gaps coming soon enough at this track and over 2400m again, she really does looks an excellent chance of winning again on 54.5kgs despite it being a while since she won. RP $3.50, $7 FF
Open race – watch out for the head to head recommendation.
5.Burning Crown two very good runs this campaign. Slight freshener will have him spot on again to win.
16.Malea Magic An emergency so wait till scratchings are up. did very well last start after having the toughest run in the race 3w on the pace, , kicked away 300m out and only got run down late in the heavy ground. Very fit now and drawn to get a good run, so has to be the one to beat on a better surface. RP
3.Enfleurage is a definite improver on a better surface.
6.Snitz as we have seen, race fitness counts for a lot on wet tracks especially, so this fella, who had to be very fit and tough to win last start over 1200m tracking a fast tempo out in 34.56, home in 36.34 on a soft track here, will go forward and making it a true fitness test for the favourite, and is very good odds to make it 5 in a row over 1100m where he maps to get 2nd outer comfortably. RP $4.80, $8.50 FF
1.Classic Legend 1st $3.30 is the class horse of the field and has a good wet track action and is ready to go. Negative is giving 4kgs from a wide draw to horse that is rock hard fit and in top form.
Confidence: 1/5 in an open race
11.Dealmaker 1st $6 does look nicely placed now on 54.5kgs. The 1600m suits on a wet track and is a nice eachway chance for a very fit horse. RP $8
7.Phaistos meets Dealmaker 4kgs worse off when they were alongside each other three starts back. Has improved since then though.
3.Order Again fresh up from Waller stable and likes a wet track.
Confidence: 3/5 Quality bet 3.3 units at $5 FF
9.Itz Lily was very unlucky last start when she drew out and got a lighten squeeze up and got back. On the turn she was full of running but could only get out late and unwound stylishly for third with an excellent L200m. So third up where she has drawn to land closer, she looks well placed to win now. RP $3.00, $5 Ff
1.Opacity 1st $4 and track palayed ideally for him is a good horse that need the inside to be off to win from the wide draw.
8.Seat Of Power last start 2nd up here over the same distance he drew wide, worked to get 2nd outer on an even tempo and fought hard for second in a good SR. Fresh up he was caught wide early and fought ok for 5th. He will be improved with that and won strongly over 1650m at Doomben last campaign. He has won second up at his last two campaigns and maps to slide over 2nd outer and be in the right place to make it 5 wins from 11 starts. RP $4, $6
5.Victorum won with authority last start and has been set for this for a long time. Third nd has the right draw to land midfield and with a decent tempo likely, can drive through late and win. RP $6, $9
7.Aquitaine 1st $2.70 last start drew wide and was caught wide early so used gas to get 2nd outer on an even tempo, led 300m out and after being headed by the smart Fituese fought hard for second. She is a big strong filly and looked like she would definitely improve off that run which was run in the fastest SR all day. She won really well second up last campaign and has been set for this Listed race over 1000m. From a top stable and drawn to get a nice sit about 4th or 5th and looks very hard to beat. RP $2.50, $3.20 FF
8.Masaff looking to peak now and the one to beat. Second up last start over 1800m was hamprered early and got back but when he angled out wider and got balanced up, really lengthened out strongly ( L600 36.59,L20012.72 and fastest of the race and compared well to shorter races) ) and hit the line with plenty to offer. So third up and up to an ideal distance now, with Craig Williams up, he should land midfield inner and Williams is very good at waiting until the gaps open and drive him home to beat these. Chris waller trained and the better surface suits. RP $2.60, $3.30 FF
7.Sin To Win strong placing last time and looks nicely placed here.
6.Sasko just ground them into the ground last start and is very tough.
10.Starcaster drawn to get a good run and be a realistic chance.
8.No Say In It is ready to peak now third up and just needs the right tempo from the wide draw.
4.Nobu will be an improver on a better track.
10.Arty Lucas won well last start and when he hits form he stays in it.
4.Rox The Castle is a good horse and ran a definite improver’s race last start over 1200m on an unsuitable heavy track. 14000m is his best distance and he has drawn to get a good run and on the decent surface, can win. RP $6, $9.50 FF
13.Outrageous ready to peak and just needs a good ride from the wide draw.
13.Iconoclasm up in weight but ideal trip again.
7.Mr Marathon Man is a good outside chance as he is a nice horse on a better surface.
9.Triton Rising was an impressive winner last start on the Synthetic- plenty of upside.
2.Hi Stranger third up and peaking but maybe wants it wetter.
12.Jolly Sailor good win last start and plenty of upside.