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What will it take to win at Pukekohe on Saturday?

Good morning ( Heads Up below) ,

Update 9 a.m. Friday. Another update for Saturday will be up by 2 p.m. along with Heads Up and 5 p.m. Then on Saturday at 9.30 a.m.

Update 11.24 a.m. Thursday. The early preview of race 9 at Pukekohe of all runners with a very good value bet is here. Next update by 2 p.m. then 5 p.m.

No selections today. I’ll be spending most of today and tomorrow going through each runner at Pukekohe with the early preview posted by 5 p.m. today. The track there is a Heavy 11 and with more rain forecast before Saturday, we can expect a very heavy testing track that will likely take at least 1.16 to run 1200m, but I’ll be checking with the Track Manager on Friday about his thoughts. The track plays fairly evenly there early on,on a heavy track then they gradually work out to the centre. Although at the July 19th meeting here on a 1.18 for 1200m track when the rail was out 6m ( Rail true Saturday), Whoshe Girl came from 3 back inner in the last race on the rail, to lead 400m out, get out a few widths and win.

And on the August 10th meeting, on a heavy track running 1.17 for 1200m, in race 9, Alvin’s Dream drew 1, shared the pace on the rail, came out 4 widths to get a break on them 300m out and held on well three widths out here. And in the previous race a similar thing happened. So it probably is just case of being able to handle the ground and being fit enough to win.

With every runner being fresh up, we have to rely on trial form and try and judge how fit a horse will be to win a good slog to the line. We’ve had trials and jumpouts to gauge that. Obviously previous winning form on a very heavy track will be a good guide and even more so if they have won there on similar going. Market movers, in or out, will also give punters a guide as well. I’ll be there posting thoughts to subscribers on how ready or not some key runners are. It is not a meeting to bet seriously on but if you can find just a couple of value runners, then you should have a profitable day. The late quaddie will, I’m sure, prove popular with a decent sized pool, so I’ll be having a good look at taking a bet for that for the quaddie syndicate.

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Good luck,

Neil

Enquiries to Neil at formpro@formpro.co.nz or text or phone 027 352 6402

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!