Home » Results » Saturday 4 July preview below

Saturday 4 July preview below

The GOAT’s two best sports bets are
Geelong in the AFL 6.30 tonight -20.5 $1.87 and Crusaders -10.5 $1.80 Mark W from Heads Up has a $20 multi on them Yes and both covered easily. Congratulations to Mark W with a $67 collect
Flemington Quaddie for the syndicate $1859 spent on a very open 10% quaddie Yes $408 return .
R6   1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
R7    1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 13, 14, 16, 17
R8    1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 9, 10, 11, 12, 15, 16, 18, 19
R9    1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 15
Race 12

9.Aalaalune is ready to win and the trainer, unusually, is also very confident. She is $3.10 to win and money back for 2nd which looks the best bet. I’ll post the Flemington quaddie after this race. 2nd and money back with the insurance bet 

Race 11

Flaunting looks the fittest by a margin. Gets the right weight and with a decent run, is definitely the one to beat. Obsessive looks in need of one but he does try his heart out. I’m very keen on Aalaalune in the for an insurance win bet if second, but will update that before the race

Race 10

Te Toro pearl is worth an ew bet at good odds.

Race 9

Hunter Villain looks very fit and just needs a clean beginning to get on pace and be very hard to beat. Worked too hard early.

Suggested Te Rapa quaddie $16 for 10%
R9     10
R10    3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 12, 13
R11    2, 5, 12, 16, 18
R12   6, 9, 10, 15

Race 8

11.Aricina is a  nice looking filly ready to go. $5.50 Win insurance for 2nd and 3rd is worth having

Race 7

Leaf $1.85 to beat Born To Flight H2H looks fitter and should be a few lengths ahead of it on the turn No after doing too much work early

Race 6

In the H2H Ana Zorro looks fitter then Rising Ransom and has drawn better. So the $2.15 H2H looks worth taking. Yes

Race 5

Go and mow the lawns- this is just too hard.

Race 4

11.Our Alley Cat looks ready and if she pings like she can, could get a break on them turning in and she gets her head down and tries hard. Good EW chance. 3rd

Race 3

7.Greyvee does look fitter than most and if she can jump like she can, should land close enough. Good eachway chance or $$6.50 on the win insurance money back for 2nd and 3rd

Race 2

In the head to head 11.Hola Senorita looks ready to go as does 15.Buy me a Rose. I’d go for Halo as she looked good winning her trial here and should be in front of Buy me a Rose on the turn. Yes

Race 1 Update:

8.De La Terre looks very fit and ready to go. Good strong win. Gee, we should go home now! But I’ll be back before race 2

 

Update 10.18.  A cloudy day but no sign of rain. The inside should be ok early on but they may work off it as the day wears on. Back before race 1.

Te Rapa

Heads Up Below with a preview for Te rapa, sports selections from the GOAT, your chance to win a $20 multi and ‘Stump the GOAT’ questions.

Early preview for Saturday. No Quality bets so far and the next update will be by 5 p.m. Friday

I’ll be on track and doing the Birdcage Bully of horses that look ready in the birdcage and post it about 2 minutes before the start.

It is not a day for serious punting  though. The quaddies and trifectas are probably the best way to go.

The TAB are now offering Win Insurance bets at the bottom of each field where you get your money back if your win bet finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th etc.

Bet of the day Te Rapa Race 9 10.Hunter Villain $4.20 FF

Value bet of the day Te Rapa Race 4 2.Our Alley Cat $9 FF 3rd $3

 

Race 1

Confidence:2/5

8.De La Terre 1st $5 won here on debut then didn’t get all favours in stronger fields. But with the break, she has come back stronger and more professional based on her trial 2nd where she jumped well, snagged to 3rd outer and could have won if pushed running nice and true. Drawn ideally and a good ew chance. RP $4.20, $5.50 Ff

Dangers:

9.Eva James looked good winning on debut in good time and trialled really well without being pushed to win. Drawn out with early speed inside her, which could leave her vulnerable to De La Terre.

Race 2

An open race. Likely best option is the head to head which I’ll comment about in the Birdcage Bully

Race 3

Confidence:2/5

7.Greyvee closed off nicely fresh up after getting too far back. She won second up last campaign over 1200m and drawn to get a good run closer to the tempo here. Gets 4kgs off and the Visor Blinkers go on to sharpen her up. RP $5, $9 FF

1.Heza Looker looked very good winning his trial easily at Te Teko in good time easing down with Ashvin up. Then on debut at New Plymouth over 1100m, he showed good early speed again to land 2nd outer and settled well. When asked to go he was a bit green but won with something in reserve. Drawn wide here but with a clean beginning, can land handy and be hard to beat.

Race 4

Confidence:2/5

11.Our Alley Cat  has looked very good in her short career. her speed rating was superior to Supera’s on the same day and she did it strongly from the front. If she looks ready in the birdcage, from the inside barrier she could lead these a very merry chase. $6, $9 FF

Dangers:

3.London Express is a good mare who won easily fresh up last campaign. With a quiet 3rd in a jumpout, followed up by an easing down win at trials, shows she is ready to win again fresh up. Gets 3kgs off and drawn to get every chance. RP $4.80, $6.50 ff

4.Santa Catarina  is also a good mare who looked good winning her recent trial. Looks a real main danger.

12.Tellyawhat  1st $12 was an impressive winner here last August on a similar surface over 1200m. And was an unlucky third here fresh up over 1200m with Ashvin up. He doesn’t have a lot of early speed but from the inside draw should land 3 or 4 back inner and with a hot speed likely, he just needs the gaps at the right time to be a realistic chance as he has a powerful last 200 metres.

Race 5

A very open race. wait for the Birdcage Bully.

Race 6

Another bookies benefit race. Maybe the head to head is worth taking which I’ll look for in the Birdcage Bully.

Race 7

Gee, you can make a case for most of these. let’s see what the head to head is like before the race.

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

11.Aricina  ran a strong second on debut in good time. Ran a nice 2nd in a recent jumpout and the improving track suits. Gets 3kgs off from the Sharrock stable. RP $5, $7 FF

Race 9

Confidence: 2/5

10.Hunter Villain was one horse who stood out on looks at Pukekohe. He relaxes well and won strongly at Matamata over 2000m. With 4kgs off, he looks very well placed up to 2000m now. Drawn wide but the onside could be well of by this time of day. Meets Vain Glory 3kgs better off. RP $3.50, $4.20 FF

Dangers:

1.My Gift  found the line nicely fresh up and more ground will suit. Beat some nice horses last campaign on wet tracks.

5.Sweet Treat  is a quick improver and better off in the weights this time.

13.Hattie Bee  goes well here and won her trial easily.

Race 10

Confidence: 2/5

4.Te Toro Pearl is a good mare, especially on slow to heavy tracks. She almost won at Ellerslie fresh up on a good track over 1200m. In here recent trial here she settled 6th outer and wasn’t pushed to finish in the slower ground about 5th. Drawn to land on the pace and be the one to beat with Ashvin getting 2kgs off. RP $9, $19 FF

Dangers:

7.Cyber Attack looked good drawing away to win his trial. Ready to fire fresh. Has won fresh up here.

3.Tavi Mac 1st $8 is a  tough genuine galloper who loves to win. Wide draw no help but if inside is off, can win. Won a recent jumpout easily.

6.Supreme Heights looked good last campaign and won his trial well. $4.40 against a good field is too short though.

Race 11

Confidence; 2/5 and depends on how the track is playing

2.Obsessive is just a really good genuine galloper. he has won on Good to very heavy tracks and beaten good horses. His recent trial win showed that he has come back in top shape. Drawn wide but the inside could well be off by this time of day and with Ashvin on, he should get every chance to roll over these in the last 100 metres. RP $4.00, $5.50 Ff

Dangers:

12.Vichy  trialed like she us ready to fire up.

16.Flaunting  looked in need of the run fresh up and ran on well. Goes well here.

Race 12

Confidence:2/5

9.Alaalune  was  really good winning here last campaign. Showed she has trained on the right way over the break with a dominant win here in a trial. She will get back but I’m picking the outside will the palce to be and that us where she power of these late. $3.40, $3.80 FF

Dangers:

10.Lady Lax 1st $4  also looked good winning here last campaign. Looked good winning her trial and drawn to get the right run.

15.Penelope Cruise looked to have above average ability at times last campaign. Gets 3kgs off.

6.Zamax has been well backed in all of his starts with Opie Bosson up who part owns him. He had his chances in most of those races but could well be stronger now and with the blinkers going off and winkers on, he should be able to land in a good spot and with Ashvin getting 2kgs off, should be right in this.

Awapuni

Race 2

Confidence: 3/5

9.Speed Call 1st $1.90 bolted in at Whanganui and ran a better time than the higher class R81 race. Gets in on a wining weight so looks the obvious one. RP $2.00, $1.85 FF

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

2.Deerfield 1st $5.50  is ready to fire fresh up after two very good trials. 1000m on a heavy track suits.

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

6.Shanpark won his maiden easily on a heavy track. The way he was travelling and finished off his trial at Foxton, shows he is ready to fire up fresh in the right race. RP $7, $12 FF

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

11.Ozil in his recent trial got back and loomed wide under a hold and wasn’t let go to run second. He’s always shown the class to win a few races and looks ready to show that here. RP $5.50, $8.00 FF

Dangers:

4.Armaguard  ran home strong fresh up and will be fitter than most.

15.Pink Graffiti beat home Ozil in her trial and placed at Ellerslie on a heavy track.

3.Awatane  will be charging late and can win if they go hard enough.

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

7.Happy Star 1st $2.20  looks ready to win based on his two trial wins. The last beating Speed Call who bolted in next up. RP $4

Dangers:

5.Platinum Rapper  has won fresh up and with 3kgs off, could upset again.

4.Torre Del Greco  trialled nicely and gets 3kgs off.

6.Hi I’m Nikita  is certainly capable of winning if fit enough.

Race 9

Confidence: 2/5

9.Gold Winner  looked very good winning huis trial with the ideal action for a heavy track. Hard to beat. RP $4

Dangers:

2.Tiro is ready to fire fresh up after a good trial behind two nice horses.

4.Lincoln Dreamer is a nice horse and goes well fresh. Kozzi is a bonus.

10.Rapid Falls  has the ability to win if fit enough.

Race 10

Confidence:1/5

5.Relda 2nd $4.80 is a  nice galloper and although last in her last trial was just warming up late. Close second fresh up on a heavy track at Trentham. 4kgs off helps. RP $9, $17 Ff

Dangers:

9.Arlington Gold  trialled up nicely and from the Pike stable, will be set to win on debut.

2.Leigh’s Mate  with the right run with 3kgs off, could do it.

13.Red Aurora  with Lisa Allpress up is a  good lead. Good 2nd  on debut on a heavy track.

 

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!