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Friday 10 July preview below

Update 1.13 a.m. No Further bets

Friday Whanganui

Good morning,

The GOAT walked the track yesterday and said it was a definite heavy 11 but with a good sole of grass. The usual patter of getting out wide was likely again with vehicle tracks down the outside. The early preview of Saturday is here and will be updated by 6 p.m.

Not a day to open the wallet with most horses fresh up and a few second or third up. I’ll post an update by noon with any head to heads or other bets.

Bet of the day Race 11 5.Crowning Star $1.95 FF 1st $1.90 

Value bet of the day Race 8 12.Spring Tide $6.50 FF 1st $3.30 

Suggested late quaddie: $22.50 for 30% Yes $168 returned

R9  1, 4, 6, 8, 16

R10   2, 3, 5
R11   5
R12     1, 7, 8, 10, 13

Races 1 to 4 are all just watch races.

Race 5

Confidence: 1/5

9.Tudor Queen ran a close second after leading in her trial and was run down late by Chica Bonita. Drawn wide which could be a real advantage with Lisa Allpress up as well. RP $6, $8 FF

Dangers:

3.Flying Zack 1st $2.70 won his trial well after leading wide from a wide draw, got to the better ground out wide and strode clear handling the ground well.

6.Chica Bonita looked good winning her trial coming with a strong run and handled the wet ground well. May have drawn wide enough to get out wider.

10.Vin Rouge  has had early money for her. She shared the pace in her trial and battled for a distant 4th but in the slower ground.800m will suit and maybe the wide draw.

Race 6

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race

5.Colly’s Folly  1st $2.40 won her trial well and will relish a heavy track.

1.Retzena 2nd $2.40 qu $10  ran a strong third here fresh up on a heavy 11 track last year. Drawn wide which will help.

 

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5                                                        

4.Transitory ran a  solid 2nd fresh up and will be improved by that. Wide draw with Lisa on is a really good combo. RP $3.50. $3.70 FF

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

12.Spring Tide  1st $3.30 and looked very fit.  could not have been more impressive winning here fresh up. He flew out, sat 3 wide in the open and drew clear running faster time than the stronger R70 race and his last 600m of 34.69 easing down, was faster than This Lady Rocks 34.77 who came off the pace from 7th. She went on to run a good 4th next up at Awapuni. The step back up to 1200m looks ideal and with his early speed, Trudy Thornton should be able to position him to get out to the better ground and with his race fitness edge and winning weight, he does look the one to best from the hot Chrissy Brambry stable.( Last 5 runners have gone 31121 )  RP $4.5, $6.50 FF       

5.Showmemore  has won here from an inside draw on a heavy 11 track when Lisa Allpress was able to get her to the outside fence on the turn- somehow!

8.Justa Small Ransom did well fresh up in the slower inner ground. Drawn out now and will be fitter.

Race 9

Confidence: 2/5

16.Caramel Popcorn looked good winning his trial beating subsequent upset winner, Dubais Moko easily. She has an ideal action for a heavy track but the negative is draw of 6 which may not allow her to get out wider. RP $4, $3.70

Dangers:

4.Aragon has been trialling strongly and from the Chrissy Brambry stable, you know will be the fittest in the race. Wide draw could make the difference between who wins this.

6.Ringthebelldarci 1st $9  ran a good 2nd in his trial when leading and just blew out late. Fraser Auret will have him fitter for this and drawn wide which should be a plus.

8.Hermes  ran a strong second here fresh up and has Kozzi up.

Race 10             

Confidence: 2/5

3.Skarloey  bolted in here June 2019 on a similar surface. He wasn’t let loose in his recent trial when full of running. Drawn out and ready to fire up fresh up. RP $5

Dangers:

5.Sea Star  has Lisa Allpress to guide him round here and has won on a heavy track over 1600m here.

2.Tavis Court 1st $3   ran an improver’s 5th here fresh up. 1360m suits better.

Race 11

Confidence: 3/5

5.Crowning Star 1st $1.90 bolted in here fresh up getting to the outside. She is a genuine galloper who just relishes racing. Lisa Allpress should be able to get her to the outside again and even though up in class, she stays on the minimum of 55kgs. RP $1.90, $1.95 FF

 

Race 12

Confidence: 1/5

8.Great North Road 2nd $3.80  won’t get a better chance to win a race. Improver’s fifth here last start and 1600m suits second up. Heavy track ok. Right draw and gets 2kgs off. RP $8, $13 FF

Dangers:

7.Rely On Me  has shown enough to say he can win a maiden race on a heavy track. 1600m suits fresh up as he gets back and unwinds, so from the drawn should be able to do that. RP $4.80

13.Mister Porotene was swamped late in his trial after leading. Inside draw no help though.

1.Cleaver  1st $5.30 quaddie $562 has won a race and is up against mostly maiden runners. Wide draw will help fresh up.

10.Mauna Loa  will be improved by that nice fifth fresh up. 1600m suits.

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!