Formpro | NZ Racing Selections and Analysis Expert horse race sectionals and selections
Update 4.20 p.m.
For the quaddie syndicate we have a bet at Cranbourne for $936 for 50% Yes $209 Returned – Closing balance is $1323 here
R5 3, 5, 6, 9, 13, 14
R6 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13
R7 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16
R8 2, 5
Update 11 a.m. Suggested late quaddie for $28 for 10% No
R5 1, 2, 5, 8, 14
R6 1, 3, 7, 9
R7 12
R8 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14
Good morning,
There are showers forecast today on the heavy 11 track which may loosen it up. Rail is out 7m this time and after walking the track at the first meeting on June 20, the ground out wide was definitely firmer than the area they will be racing on today. So I can see them getting out wide after a few races and that outside part could be a fast lane so wider draws later on should be an advantage.
I’ll post an update by 3 p.m. There are some Australian Win Insurance bets detailed below as well. I may have abet for the Quaddie Syndicate which I will post by 4 p.m.
No Quality bets so far.
Bet of the day Race 7 12.Altar Girl $4 – recommended $3.10 Winsurance for 2nd 2nd refunded
Value bet of the day Race 4 5.Magdala $5.50 FF recommended $4.40 Winsurance 2nd refunded
Race 1
Confidence: 2/5
1.Fighting Fire beat home Fleurisimo in his trial and she ran a game second on debut at Ellerslie last Saturday. Ready to win on debut. RP $3.60, Opened $3.80 now $3.40 FF
Dangers:
10.You Wish looked good winning her recent trial When on the pace and led turning in and wasn’t pushed to hold on. Has natural early speed and a good wet track action.
4.Colossal is a big fella with early speed as he showed in his trial. Drawn to get a good run on pace.
3.Pacific Master 1st $6 in his trial was slow away and got back but came strongly late to win. Wide draw no help.
Race 2
Confidence: 2/5
1.Twin Spinner did plenty of work to lead before the turn and battled well for fifth. 6th was My Gift who ran a top race next up with a big weight. And the winner, Vain Glory, almost won again next up. He has won here on a similar surface and gets in-form Callum Jones up with 4kgs off, so looks the obvious one. RP $3.00, $2.80 FF
Dangers:
2.Van Blanc ran a strong second here fresh up when held up at a vital stage. he looked very fit for that so should be spot on for this over more ground. gets 4kgs off and drawn to get a good run.
3.Summer Warrior closed off nicely fresh up over 1600m and more ground now suits. He is giving weight to the above two, and can’t see him beating them.
5.Arite Guru game second here last start and had a hurdle trial since. Will be fitter alright.
Race 3
Confidence: 2/5
4.Sonofabutcher 1st $6 did well last campaign when winning on debut over 1200m then later ran home strongly from last at Ellerslie behind top 3yos running 8th ( 3rd fastest L200M) with an FR 102 which would win this easily. He ran on well once balanced up fresh up over 100m here and the step to 1300m suits ideally. Tiger keeps the ride and gets 1kg off. The inside should be ok by this time of day. RP $5, $7.50 Ff
Dangers:
7.Falkirk Lass loves the mud and gets in with a nice weight for a 3 win mare. Beat a good field at Tauranga on a heavy track.
2.Balios ran a nice trial third and is bred to win a few races. Nice galloper but wide draw is against.
1.Bullybrook won well here fresh up but it was the slowest of the three x 1200m races. He goes up to 60kgs and up to 1300m giving weight to some handy horses. RP $6, $3.30 FF is too short
Race 4
Confidence: 3/5
5.Magdala 2nd looked good last campaign when her best win was at New Plymouth and her sectional splits and race time were stronger than the Open Handicap won by Helena Baby! Then she probably raced on a bit too long and on better surfaces. She has joined the Rudy leifting stablr and based on the way she won her trial at Rotorua, where she sat on the lead and wasn’t pushed at all to win, she is right on track to win fresh up with the 3kgs off getting a good advantage over her main rivals. Rudy was also very bullish about her chances when talking to Trackside last Saturday. RP $5, Opened $11 now into $7 FF
Danger:
1.Alaskan Gold won strongly in a good SR here fresh up. Gives good weight to Magdala though.
9.She’s A Lady won on debut on a heavy track but beat a weak field and in a slow SR. Ran fair races since on better tracks. Won a recent trial well beating subsequent winner Osake so a good pointer. But fresh up on a heavy track over 1300m against some very nice wet track runners, she is no value at $3.50 FF
Race 5
Confidence:2/5
14.Rhuzick ran a nice third in her February trial but looked weak in that and her trual. But since a good break she has come back looking much stronger – in her recent trial she got back and didn’t have much room to improve but ran through the line and after it very nicely. From the in-form Tiley stable and drawn to get a good run. The early money has come for her which is always a good sign from this stable. RP $6, Opened $9 into $6.50 Ff
1.The Villain 2nd after being relegated won his trial coming through along the inner but was the only runner given a few strikes over the last 200m while the rest were close up in one of the slower heats. So in an open field he is no value at $4 Ff.
5.Black Tech looked good right handed in winning his two trials then went to HK and didn’t like it. Trialed nicely recently when leading and wasn’t pushed to run fifth. better right handed and has a good wet track action.
8.The Bounder looked good running second in his trial and has a good action for a heavy track.
9.La Flavorita ran second here on a better track and would need that to win his, which he isn’t going to get.
Race 6
The speed map shows an even speed and with the outside the place to be, Tunzagutz looks like he can get there.
Confidence:2/5
9.Tunzagutz 1st $6 ran a strong second here fresh up and 1600m will suit even better. Third alongside him was Zentarri who almost won at Ellerslie on Saturday. Gets down to a winning weight and should handle the heavy track better than most. Wide draw should mean it can get out wider to the better ground. RP $3.60, $4.20 FF
Dangers:
3.Teen Titan won well here fresh up and should be improved by that.
7.Bullit will relish a bog and can upset.
1.Plushenko has had two runs back over ground and done ok. Back to 1600m suits and has a fitness edge.
Race 7
Confidence: 2/5
12.Altar Girl 2nd looks nicely placed here. She looked very fit fresh up here when closing off well for second over 1300m. The 1600m is ideal for her now and she gets in on a winning weight with the 3kgs off. RP $2.80, $4 Ff $$3.10 Winsurance 2nd
Dangers:
11.Jakama Krystal ran an improver’s race fresh up here behind Altar Girl and has drawn wide with 2kgs off which will be a plus.
1.Cassio has run a good second here on a heavy 11 track but has had many goes and a 4kg apprentice from an inside draw, are two negatives.
Race 8
Confidence: 2/5
2.Wild Like has had two runs back now and has shown enough to win a maiden. The way he found the line here in a stronger maiden fresh up says he can get back and wide and get to the better ground and beat this weaker maiden field. 1600m back right handed suits ideally. RP $4, $5.50 FF $4.50 Winsurance 2nd
Dangers:
5.Buddy Perfect has changed stables and looked good coming off the pace in his recent trial and finishing over them with an ideal bog track action. Craig Grylls retains the ride and looks a decent eachway chance.
1.Alfa Rosso led and fought well for third here fresh up. Drawn 1 and with the outside likely to be the place to be, it will take a very good ride to get him home. RP $5, $2.70 FF is too short.
4.On The Rivet did well when 6th at Ruakaka on a Dead to slow track coming from well back. Drawn wide and will get back, but should get her chance to get out wider from the draw.
6.Shackleton’s Edge has shown enough to be a chance from a wide draw.
Australian selections
Below are horses in Australia that I feel are over the odds and worth backing with Winsurance. The plus with these bets are that you get your money back if they finish in the specified placings. The negative is you are taking lesser odds but if they are still above your rated price, they are worth the bet. Plus, if you multi them up, and they do place in that specified range of placings, your multi is still alive.
Eagle Farm
Race 1
5.Chief Mondo on debut got back from a wide draw and ran on well just blowing out late. The second up just missed it slightly and got back but sustained a strong finish for third on a heavy track. His action suggests a better track will suit and he will be fitter now. If he can land 3 back inner with an even tempo likely, he can upset these fitter third up. RP $8, Recommended bet $10 Winsurance 2nd, 3rd,4th.
Cranbourne
Race 2
9.Seafood Source won second up last campaign and showed with her strong finishing second, fresh up, she looks stronger and on track to repeat that pattern from the good draw. RP $4.50, $6.50 Ff $4.80 Winsurance 2nd and 3rd.
Race 3
1.Tysonic is a nice galloper and is third up after a strong third second up. He has won third up before and he maps to get an ideal run around midfield from the good draw. RP $4.50, $7 and $5 Winsurance 2nd and 3rd
Race 4
6.Brimm last start sat outside a solid tempo, kicked well and was run down late by Broomstock. Meets him better off in the weights and maps to get a soft lead with Broomstock mapped to get back on the inner and be in trouble. Peaking now fourth up and well placed. RP $3.00, $4, $3.20 Winsurance 2nd
