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Saturday July 18 preview below

 

Update 4.45 p.m.

Quaddie syndicate bank is $2427 -581 + 147 = $1993

I’ve spent $688 on a 50% quaddie at Flemington leaving $1305 in the bank. Yes $1141 returned. $1993 -$688+ $1141 = $2446 New balance

R6   123915
R7   12345678101213
R8   358910
R9    58111217

Update 4.25 I’ll post the Melbourne quaddie by 4.50 p.m.

Update: 2.34 p.m.

For the Quaddie syndicate I have spent $581 on a 10% bet in the Terminating Pick 6 on Te Rapa and Awapuni. I have anchored the two main bets for the day. I’ll post a bet for the Ozzie quaddie by 4.30 p.m.

R1   123578911  1st $19
R2   123478910111213 1st $4
R3    1 1st $3.60 134 units left
R4    16 Missed but with a $23 chance winning it may go to any 5 if a couple of double figure winners get up in the last two legs. Update – there are no units left after 4 legs so we are in with a chance still.
R5    124578910111314
R6     34567891011131518  $147 returned with two favourites getting up.

Update 8.45 a.m.

Good morning,

The most interesting runner today is Nikau Spur in race 7 at Awapuni. He has been set up for a good old fashioned sting after opening at $34 and is now into $11. He has been backed in early $34 to $11 off no public trials or jumpouts that I can find. His dam, Sarasun,won 7 races, 4 of them on heavy tracks, her last in a Listed race at Pukekohe over 1600m on a 1.43 for 1600m track. So he is bred to relish the ground and gets 3kgs off.

We have $2427 in the Quaddie syndicate here and I’ll post any bets for that later today.

Next update will be by 11.30 a.m. And watch out for updates on Twitter.

Bet of the day Awapuni Race 8 1.My Gift $3.80 Recommended $2.80 Winsurance 2nd and is a Quality bet at 4.4 units 1st $3.80 

Value bet of the day Te Rapa race 11 16.Our Alley Cat $6.50 Recommended bet Winsurance 2nd and 3rd $4.60 Ff Faded right out

The GOATS best sports bet is the Chiefs-5.5 at $1.87 on Sunday afternoon.

Ray L, who won the $20 Heads Up multi bet has Our Alley Cat $4.60 Winsurance 2nd and 3rd, into the Chiefs -5.5 to return $172 and $37 if she places.

Update 5.50 p.m.

There is one Quality bet so far for tomorrow. Awapuni race 8 1.My Gift $2.80 Winsurance 2nd at $2.80 4.4 units ( Details why posted below )

The best Value bet so far is Te Rapa race 11 16.Our Alley Cat $6 $4.60 Winsurance $4.60 2nd and 3rd

Early bets for Saturday

We have $2427 in the Quaddie syndicate  here and will likely spend it all on one bet on Saturday, which I will post.

No Quality bets so far

Te Rapa

The first three races are jumps races and best watched.      

Race 4

Confidence: 3/5

2.De La Terre 1st $2.40 looked strong and fit before the start here fresh up and was a dominant winner. She should be even fitter for this and from the draw will land in a winning spot and prove very hard to beat. RP $2.20, $2.60 FF

Danger:

1.Flash Warrior fought on well after being held up here behind De La Terre and will be improved also, but hard to see him turning the tables on De La Terre.

7.Eva James  has her chance here last start and battled ok for third but hard to see her beating De La Terre. RP $6, $3.70 FF

13.Spirit of Atalante has had early money with no trial or jumpout form.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

2.Heza Looker  is a good horse who ran a strong second fresh up after getting held up. The 1100m will suit better and the wide draw may be an advantage after the jumps races earlier in the day. gets 2kgs off. RP $4.50, $6, Recommended bet $4.60 Winsurance 2nd and 3rd

7.Loose Cannon  closed off very strongly here fresh up and as long as the inside is ok, he should be the main danger.

4.Call Me Evie 1st $4  trialed up very well and if the inside is well off, should be in it.

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

4.The Arabian Duke  ran a game second fresh up here last season over jumps and ran a solid 4th in the Waikato steeples next up. He has had three trials, two over steeples recently, and with 2kgs off, looks a nice eachway chance at odds. RP $8, $12 FF RB ( Recommended bet is Winsurance $8.50 2nd, 3rd and 4th. )

Race 8

Confidence:2/5

8.Tabata 1st $2.50 has looked very good in her two trial wins since her last campaign. Very nice galloper and from the draw should be able to position in a winning spot and be the one to beat here. RP $2.80

Dangers:

12.Brymaar  looked good running home for 4th in her trial without being pushed. Nice action for a wet track and from the Richards stable. Early money has come for it too.

9.Light Brocade good 3rd on debut and trialled up nicely for 2nd recently. Drawn well.

Race 9

Confidence: 1/5 with a few chances.

11.Ihu 1st $4 looked a definite improver after his game second fresh up here. Gets in with a winning weight and drawn to lead and if rail is ok, is the one to beat. RP $5

8.Tellyawhat was a good winner here fresh up and 1200m will suit even better. Gets 2kgs off so well placed again.

6.New York Jazz is an obvious improver and has won over 1200m here on a dead track. Heavy track should be ok.

9.Liquid Inspiration ran on late fresh up and gets in on a light weight.

Race 10

8.Our Fine Wine 1st $4 won very well here and the speed rating was strong indicating she can step up to this grade successfully.

3.Ata Rangi  won impressively here May last year over 1400m. Wide draw could be a plus.

12.Kaipaki Road  has always shown enough to say she could be better in time. Wide draw could be a plus.

2.Wooden Edge ran on nicely fresh up and won easily this time last year here.

Race 11

Confidence: 2/5

16.Our Alley Cat  looked good last campaign when winning easily at Matamata  over 1400m on a heavy track leading all the way. She ran a very good third here fresh up over 1000m and blew out late. Up to 1400m looks ideal and from the wide draw, should be able to stay away from the inside which is likely to be off by this time of day. She has the side winkers going back on and looks a solid chance. RP $4.50, $6, Recommend $4.60 Winsurance 2nd and 3rd

Danger:

4.Crystallize  looks the one the cat has to beat and it just depends on where the best part of the track is. Fitter than most and looks the main danger. Suggest covering on him at $1.95 Winsurance  2nd and 3rd.

Race 12

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race

3.Collinstreet  is a good horse and won second up last campaign over 1600m. Nice run fresh up and gets 2kgs from a wide draw, which will help, as will the blinkers going on. RP $6, $11, Recommended bet $9 Winsurance 2nd and 3rd

Dangers:

8.Crafty Jess 1st $4.50 rates on top here after weight adjustments. Nice fresh up here for third and has won 2nd and 3rd up here.

11.Grand Bouquet  has won 4 races in Australia and is the best bred horse in the race being out of top mare Daffodil. She got back in a recent trial here and didn’t have any room to improve going to the line with a gear or three up the sleeve. Ready to fire fresh up.

18.Vadavar  has won over a middle distance in Europe and ran home strongly to win his trial. Early money says he is ready.

Awapuni

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5 with an intriguing opening race with a couple of smart horses.

11.Signora Nera is very well bred being out of 9 win mare Madonna Mia who did win her debut over 1100m. She has won a jumpout and maybe the wide draw, with a little magic from Lisa Allpress, can overcome that and pull off a successful plunge. RP $3.00 , Opened $3.30 now $2.80 FF

Danger:

3.Prince Of Doon  looked good winning his trial being on the pace and stretching out well in the ground to draw away.

1.Gentleman Jack 1st $6 closed off hard late fresh up over 800m, saying that he will be better suited by the extra 200m here. Nice horse and the one to beat.

6.Sir Beet  ran a nice third in his trial fighting well for third from the trail with an ideal wet track action.

Race 2

Confidence:2/5

4.Armaguard  has had two runs back now and will be peaking third up on an ideal heavy track. Gets 3kgs off giving him 9.5kgs against the main danger Deerfield. RP $3.50, $4.60 Recommended bet Winsurance $3.60 2nd

Dangers:

1.Deerfield 1st $3 is a good horse but weight can stop a train, especially on a very heavy holding track.

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

1.Empire Of Patch 1st $3.40  ran a strong second last start rating an FR99 which would win any maiden race in the country. So dropping back to a non-race winners event looks ideal. Wide draw means he needs a good ride though and the inside to be off. RP  $3.40, $3.40 FF

Dangers:

3.Lincoln Kruz  top 3rd fresh up being wide all the way and gets 3kgs advantage over Patch.

9.Irish Heart is a definite improver and could benefit from a fast tempo.

Race 4

Confidence:1/5

2.Harry Harrison  looked good leading all the way to win his maiden. Fair run fresh up in a harder field. Drops back in class here with 3kgs off, so could lead them a merry chase. RP $6, $9 FF

Dangers:

10.Pink Grafitti 1st $4  ran home well for 4th fresh up and is an obvious danger.

5.Hydro Express  won her maiden well here and gets 2kgs off.

7.Total Sass  bolted in on debut on a heavy track and gets 3kgs off.

Race 5

Confidence: 1/5

7.Aricina 1st $3 is a nice filly who ran on nicely fresh up. Gets 3kgs off and looks hard to beat. RP $3.50, $3.00 FF

Dangers:

3.Jugador  ran home as though 1400m will be ideal now.

14.With Joy two good trial runs and is ready to fire on debut.

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

9.Rock Island Line 1st $3.40   closed off really strongly here fresh up with head down attacking the line. That was over 1200m so the step to 1400m looks ideal now. He won on  this weekend last year over 1400m on a heavy 11 and this is his best distance. RP $6, $12 FF recommend $9 Winsurance 2nd and 3rd.

Dangers:

6.Happy Star 1st $3.00 is very fit and with Lisa Allpress up, is an obvious main danger.

7.Floral Art  strong second fresh up and looks a definite improver.

11.Yamuna  with Johnson up is a nice horse.

Race 7

2.Denali looked good winning his recent trial on a heavy track. Good action for it and the Allpress/Auret combo is always strong.

9.Reliable Miss   is going to win a maiden at least but is a query on a heavy track from a wide draw with a 3kg apprentice up.

3.Mr Ghibson looked good winning his trial and if the inside is ok, can win.

7.Nikau Spur has been backed in early $34 to $11 off no public trials or jumpouts that I can find. His dam, Sarasun,won 7 races, 4 of them on heavy tracks, her last in a Listed race at Pukekohe over 1600m on a 1.43 for 1600m track. So he is bred to relish the ground and has obviously been set up for a good old fashioned sting.

Race 8

Confidence: 4/5

1.My Gift 1st $3.80  looks very well placed here third up on a track he bolted in on this time last year on a similar heavy 11 surface. Last start second up he drew wide and with the 63kgs, giving his main rivals 7 and 8 kgs, he had to use petrol to get handy and tracked a good speed. Then he led 200m out in the slower inner ground and was swamped late by horses with big weight advantages. This time he is peaking third up, gets 4kgs off, should land about 4th or 5th in running away from the likely slower inner, and he does look a class above these as I feel Speed Call is definitely beatable. RP $1.90, $3.80 Ff, Recommended bet Winsurance $2.80 2nd 4.4 units on the Value Staking Plan.

Danger:

7.Speed Call was the lay of the day and well beaten won here last start in a weaker race. They didn’t go hard and he got a bit keen. He took off 600m out and led on the turn, kicked well but was tiring over the last 50 metres to hold on to beat a weaker field rating an FR 106. My Gift rated 112 last start and will be even fitter for this so should hold that form at least. Speed Call gets 4kgs off My Gift but on the Formpro ratings would need to have another 5kgs to be on level terms with him. It is his first go over ground this campaign and he has had a fitness edge over his race rivals in his last two starts in weaker fields. So the $2.10 FF is just too short.

Race 9

9.Relda did plenty of work fresh up and fought hard for second. Fitter and the one to beat.

8.Penelope Cruise 1st $3.40  is a nice mare who had things go against her fresh up. Lisa Allpress jumps on and will give her every chance

5.Dubai’s Moko  won well here last start and will be on pace.

2.Johnnie Redmond is a nice galloper and will be fitter for this.

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!