Home » Results » Saturday 25 July 2020 preview below

Saturday 25 July 2020 preview below

Don’t forget the GOAT has his best sports bet with Crusaders -11.5 $1.87 coming up tonight

Race 9

Rhuzick was a bit fresh and keen last start and did well in the slower part. She looks much fitter today and relaxed well in her prelim. The one to beat. Big drift on betfair so don’t go silly. A very good ride got her home at very good money to finish off not a bad day.

The quaddie at Caulfield is likely to pay under $2,000 so have gone for Sydney $756 for a 50% bet Returned $318

July 25 Spent $630 on the Terminating Pick 6 Missed and $756 on the Caulfied quaddie returned $318. Opening balance 2446- 630-756 + 318 = $1378 Closing balance

R6  1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7
R7   1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9
R8   1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 9
R9    3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 11

Riccarton Race 8 7.Athene looks fit and is a nice looking mare. If she can snag and get a trackinto it, she can get over these. Good eachway bet. Good tough win

Race 8

Zenntari looks the fittest in the race and ready to win. Danielle knows where to get to and has the draw to get there and beat these. Just beaten by Major Tom last start which won well today.

Race 7

6.Rapid Falls looks ready and went down nice and freely. Should be able to get to the right part from his draw and does look the one to beat.

Race 6

Two bets here: Just Treasure and My Superior Girl. If they snag they should be able to get to the centre or wider and are both good each way bets.

We have spent $630 on the Terminating Pick 6 for a 10% bet for the syndicate Missed

R1   1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12
R2   1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 15
R3    2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
R4    2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 10
R5    4, 7
R6    12

race 5

Air centre looks very ready. Can win from the draw if 2nd outer or away from the rail and can get to the centre or wider. Demonetization 1st $8 maps to get back and if he comes to the outside, can run over them. back both. Good horse with an even better rider!

Race4

Macushla 1st $2.50 now gets the track in her favour and lols ready to win again
The way the track is playing at Riccarton Ataahua Dreamtime 1st $2.50 should get every chance as outside seems to be playing better.
race 3

Youwantmore looks very fit and I’m picking they will all come wide on the turn so she should get her chance as long as she is centre track in the straight
Race 2

Twin Spinner looks fitter than Von Blanc and with Callum knowing where to go in the straight, looks very hard to beat.
Race 1

Now Is Now well punted and came down the best part of the straight. There are two tyre lines exactly where he came which is ideal. So we may see them getting well off the rail now so inside draws and on pace may not be the place to be. We shall see as it may just have been a case of a superior horse winning race 1

7.Lady De Winter looks alert and ready. Needs to ping like she did last start and she is a solid ew chance

No Head to Heads at this stage but there may be as I post the birdcage bully once I can see them and see where the riders will be heading for on the turn.
Track report 11.30 am

It is a 1.15 for 1200m track. Heavy 10 is fair and it gets better from the centre outwards, so can see them getting out there when the inside gets worn. The inside to the 250m Mark is no worse than the outer 7m so could suit on pace runners early with a tail breeze down the home straight. Right to the outside from 3m to the outside rail it is a 1.12 for 1200m track so when they do get wider, outside draws will be no disadvantage.

Update 8.08 a.m. Saturday

It is a cloudy day in Auckland with just the odd shower forecast which shouldn’t affect the ground. It is a heavy 10, similar to Wednesday’s track where they were running around 1.16 for 1200m, and should do the same here. The rail is out 8m from the true on Wednesday, so I’m going to walk the track this morning to see how it may play and post that report.

I’ll also be doing a live Birdcage Bully and post that about 2 minutes before each race. It is a tricky day with no Quality bets so far. I’ll post an update by 11.30 with any other bets.

We have $2446 in the Formpro Quaddie syndicate here and if we have a bet today I’ll post that by 3 p.m. as we may have a go at the Terminating Pick 6 again depending on what it could get to. Then we may have a go at an Ozzie quaddie posted by 4.30 p.m.

Bet Of The day Riccarton race 4 7.Ataahua Dreamtime $2.90 FF

Value bet of the day Avondale Race 5 5.Air Centre $5.00

Other good eachway or Winsurance bets are:

Avondale race 3 3.Youwantmore $10 and $3

Riccarton Race 8 7.Athene $5.50 Ff

Counties at Avondale

Next update by 8.45 a.m. Friday

The rail is out 8 metres from the true position where it was on Wednesday. Hardly any runners got that far out on Wednesday so it is virtually untouched ground. I’ll be walking the track Saturday morning so will post an update before the first race.

Avondale

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

7.Lady De Winter  ran a very good second fresh up when she jumped first then dropped her head nicely and fought hard for second. Drawn wide but has the early speed to cross and if she gets into a good spot, can win. RP $4, $5 FF

Dangers:

1.Happy Ego ran a game second fresh up and just needs to begin like he did then to be the main danger.

9.Sussex did well 3 wide on the pace last start. With a better run, should be in this.

Race 2

Confidence:2/5

2.Twin Spinner  ran a game third  last start when leading 1200m out and was run down by the winner in the better part of the track. RP $3

Dangers:

5.Van Blanc will be improved by that last run and with a good run with the visor blinkers going on, is the main danger.

Race 3

The speed map shows Youwantmore trailing  Windy Height and a moderate tempo likely.

Confidence: 2/5

3.Youwantmore  has the strongest ratings here and gets in on a winning weight with 3kgs off. Plus she is fitter after that good fresh up run where she used a bit of petrol early to cross and ended up sharing a decent tempo setting it up for Ali Baba back in the running. To only tire in the last 100m means she will improve from that. Fourth was impressive next up winner My Gift. She sweated up a bit then too so is going to be improved by that. Last campaign she won third up in a stronger Open handicap beating some nice horses. So from the inside draw, she should trail and be a good eachway chance from there. RP $6, $10

Dangers:

2.Trisha Lea lumped a big weight last start and fought hard for second. Fitter now.

7.Hunter Villain did too much work early last start and tired. Fitter for that.

Race 4

Confidence: 1/5 in a tricky race.

2.Thistle Do ran a good 3rd last start in the slower part of the track. Fitter now third up and gets 3kgs off. Drawn to land 3 back inner and be a nice eachway chance from there. RP $6

Dangers:

4.Lord Valentine ran a strong second last start and is fitter now. Drawn out so need inside to be off.

7.Macushla  looked good winning on debut coming off the pace but the speed ratings was slow and what she beat was much weaker than these. Drawn wide and unless the inside is off, $2.40 is too short. Nigel Tiley did say she does have early speed and will go forward and the speed map shows not a lot of early speed inside her, so if she did lead or get 2nd outer without doing too much, could justify the $2.40.

Race 5

The speed maps shows Air Centre and Gorgeous Geisha sharing a moderate to even tempo suiting runners in the first half. Track bias will come into it as well.

Confidence:2/5

5.Air Centre last start, second up, drew wide at Ellerslie and began ok but was caught wide with cover over the 880m. The winner and race rival Gorgeous Geisha had a good run up front and won well, but Air Centre kept closing strongly running the 3rd fastest last 600m all day 35.52. This time Air Centre has drawn inside GG and has the early speed to lead GG and share a moderate tempo. From there, with Air Centre peaking third up and GG a query second up, plus with Air Centre getting a better run this time, she can reverse the positions. She won on debut here over 1200m on a heavy 11 in 1.21.7.  RP $4, $5.50. RB WS 2nd and 3rd $3.60

Dangers:

10.Threadtheneedle  did well on debut after jumping well, trailing, was checked back to 9th inr 900m out, and looked to have a bit to offer when held up in the straight and found the line well once out. Maps to get out and likely lead early then hand up to Air Centre, but if the inside is the place to be again, she is an upset chance.

7.Gorgeous Geisha  should land 2nd outer and I doubt if Callum will take Air Centre on for the lead, so a moderate tempo is likely, so with the weight advantage, can hold a place.

2.Demonetization looked ready to fire fresh up at the trials. Drawn wide which may well be a plus by this time of day. Good horse with Leith Innes up.

Race 6

The speed maps shows no obvious leader and maybe My Superior Girl  could slide forward and get a soft lead and set it up for on pace runners.

Confidence: 1/5 in an open and tricky race. A race where a head to head and birdcage bully could give us some value.

9.My Superior Girl  ran a nice race fresh up when 4th then shared a good pace last start at Ellerslie and faded out 300m out. Maybe she was just flat second up but she is better than that. She could get a soft lead this time and third up and fitter, could pinch it. RP $6 RB Each way at $10 and $2.50

Dangers:

1.Major Tom is fit and in form. Drops back to 1400m giving good weight to some here, but race fitness is a big tick.

7.Diogenes is a false favourite here as although he won well last start he drew wide, was able to get to the fast lane out wide at Pukekohe and just held on from a fast closing Magdala. That was in an R65 race. He steps up in class here and maps to be 3 back inner and with a moderate tempo likely, and if the inside is off, he is just no value at $2.40 Ff

4.Answer Back  ran a fair race fresh up and is a handy horse and drawn to get a good run if he can ping the gates. 3kgs off a plus.

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

6.Rapid Falls fresh up did very well when getting midfield inner after being handy early and once out I liked the way he put his head down and found the line in a good speed rating rating an FR98 which would win this easily. He’s drawn out here but if the track is fair, he will find this easier. RP $3.50, $3.80

Dangers:

4.Movinonbye did well fresh up from a wide draw and worked wide all the way to run third. Looks stronger now and is the main danger with 3kgs off and from a good draw.

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

5.Zenntari fought very hard last start to just go down. Peaking third up now and Danielle Johnson is the right rider for him now. RP $4.00

Dangers:

2.Alvin’s Dream ran a good fifth fresh up in a strong field. Both wins were right handed and is a realistic chance.

Race 9

Confidence: 2/5

12.Rhuzick ran a nice trial then was caught in the slower ground at Pukekohe but battled on well for 6th. Nigel Tiley expected her to be hard to beat then so against a weak field here, she gets her chance to break through with the blinkers going on at the right time. RP $2.70, $3 Ff

Dangers:

10.Gocara ran a solid second fresh up and should be fitter.

Riccarton

Race 4

Confidence: 3/5

7.Ataahua Dreamtime looked good at the trials and showed she will win at least a maiden when charging home late over 900m to grab second in the fastest L600 36.13, the 2nd fastest all day, and L200, and fastest all day, of the race. The step to 1100m will obviously suit. Drawn wide but there looks to be plenty of speed here. She shared the lead in her last trial but she looks better chasing so is likely to be allowed to find her feet again early and get back, but watch her charge home! RP $2.50, $2.90 FF

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

6.Confessional did very well fresh up covering more ground than saber and fought right to the line. Drawn the inside and if the inside is still ok, which it should be, she can win. RP $4, $4.20 Ff

Race 8

Confidence:2/5

7.Athene fresh up over 1000m, got well back but charged home for 4th in the fastest L600 all day rating FR103 in the stronger field. She drops back in class here and but has drawn wide. She can go forward early but risks getting caught wide, so ideally, she needs the inside to be off, so Mosely can snag her and get over them in the better ground. RP $4, $5.50 Ff

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!