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Saturday, 1 August preview below

The GOAT has the Chiefs +6.5 as his best sports bet for the weekend and Pedro, who won the Heads Up $20 Multi has a $75 collect if that happens with Crystalize Winsurance 2nd $1.95 who bolted in by a head!

For the quaddie syndicate I have spent $713 on an 80% bet at Sydney $232 returned  $1378- 713+ 232 = $897

R6   2, 5, 7
R7   2, 4, 7
R8   1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12, 13
R9    1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 9, 12, 13

Race 9 1.My Gift looks very fit and he should land near the pace and get out about 3 or 4 wide on the turn and prove very hard to beat. Done by a bob of the head! Gee we need a presenter on course! Getting the before and after race comments just takes away from the enjoyment. We may have a quaddie at Sydney for the syndicate posted by 4.40 p.m.

Race 8

Suggested multi is with the Head to head Chiaretta $1.65 to beat Rukuhia Yes and comfortably. who needs the run according to the trainer and looked like it in his trial. Multi with My Gift in the last race to win at $2.60 to return $42.90 for $10

Race 7

Tough race. 8.Justacanta is worth an each way bet at big odds as they will likely go hard and set it up for a closer.

Race 6 Tricky race so quaddie looks the best way to go.

Suggested late quaddie $22.40 for 20%

R6   2, 4, 9, 11
R7    3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 13
R8   4, 5, 6, 7
R9    1

Race 5

4.Crystallize is very fit and I’m picking they will back off him and dominate in front and with that light weight, has to be very hard. Beat home Tammy last start and she won the previous race. 1st that worked out well with a good ride.

Race 4

Tough race. 11.Easy M’Lady looks a nice eachway chance and Flaunting looks super fit. Both ew chances.  Good luck to one susbcriber who has a big multi finishing on Flaunting.

Race 3

7.Magdala should be suited with the head wind for front runners for the first 800m now. I just hope she snags and looks for cover and with a decent tempo likely, she will get her chance to power over these. She does look very well. Very game third after getting caught 3w in the open into that head wind.

Race 2

Double Happy is beatable here as he is likely to be 3 back inner off a moderate tempo and is looking for more ground, so in a sprint home is just no value at $2.20. Mont Ventoux and No Loitering are both worth backing to beat him home. For those laying Double Happy it all worked out to plan until the last 200m when he did very well to get through for second. Back for race 3 where it is looking good for Magdala with that head wind with a decent tempo likely.

Update 11.30 a.m. The inside is no disadvantage according the a steward who walked the track. So with that head wind in the back straight, runners in the trail and 3 back inner are going to get the right runs. Altar Girl, who is the fittest horse in the race, should land 3 back inner or maybe even trail depending on how she jumps, and with the weight advantage, does look the one to beat. She looks very ready to win. Just got too far back. Rail may be off with runners struggling to make ground there and better going seems a few metres off the rail down the home straight.

Update 10.50 a.m.

No value in any of the Head to Head bets. Next update just before race 1

Update 8.30 a.m.

I can’t make it to Matamata now but I’ll still do updates before each race. It has come back to a Slow 7 and usually plays fairly. There is a strong North Easterly wind which will likely be in their faces down the back straight so you wouldn’t want to be working too hard into that.

I’ll post an update by 11.15 with any head to heads or other bets.

Bet of the Day Race 9 1.My Gift $2.70 ( $2.90 Friday and is a Quality ) bet at 4.8 units at $2.90

Value Bet of the day Race 3 7.Magdala $4.40 FF

Speed map Special Race 5 4.Crystalize $2.60 FF

Big Value bet of the day Race 7 8.Justacanta $26 FF

Lays of the day:

Race 2 5.Double Happy $2.40 – maps to get back inner off a moderate tempo and looking for more ground.

Race 8 9.Shoshone $3 FF Won in slowest of 4 1200m races last start, This is harder, two wins came on heavy tracks.

Update 7.45 a.m.

I can’t make it to Matamata now but I’ll still do updates before each race.

We have $1378  in the Formpro Quaddie Syndicate and if we have a go today I’ll post it well in advance.

Update 5.25 p.m.

I’ve been through Ashburton and my Blackbooked runners in Australia and just can’t find anything at value to select.

I’ll post an update by 8.45 a.m. tomorrow morning and a track report on Matamata by 11 a.m.

Then I’ll be doing a Birdcage Bully about 2 minutes before each race there.

Saturday preview

One early Quality bet. Matamata race 9 1.My Gift $2.90 RP $1.80 4.8 units at $2.90 FF

I’ll be walking the track on Saturday morning and will post my thoughts by 11 a.m.

Next update 6 p.m. Friday

Abbreviations:

RP= Rated price

FF= Final Field odds

RB = Recommended bet

WS = Winsurance bet

Matamata

Slow 8 as at Friday afternoon and likely to get back to a Slow 7, but I’ll post my track report by 11 a.m.

Race 1

The speed map shows Southern Vogue La Favorita and Atom Ant looking to get on pace early and Altar Girl can land three back inner behind an even tempo suiting all runners.

Confidence:2/5

11.Altar Girl  has run two very good seconds on heavy tracks and is very fit. With the 3kgs off and from the good draw, where she maps to land in the trial or 3 back inner, she has to be the one to beat. RP $3.80, $4 Ff.

Dangers:

1.You Are So Vain  is a nice looking galloper who didn’t look happy in the very heavy ground fresh up but stuck on well for third. A better surface will help.

14.La Favorita ran a solid second last campaign over this distance and was caught in the quicksand fresh up. Drawn to land in a good spot  here.

Race 2

The speed map shows a moderate tempo with No Loitering and Greencast sharing a moderate tempo.

Confidence:2/5

3.No Loitering two runs back and fitter. This is easier with 2kgs off. he maps to lead or sit outside it and with not a lot of pressure likely, could prove hard to catch in a sprint home. RP $5, $8 FF RB WS 2nd and 3rd $5.50 FF

Dangers:

6.Mont Ventoux  two solid efforts and drawn to get a good run maybe 2nd outer if Greencast opts to trail behind No Loitering.

5.Double Happy has run two strong races and with the 3kgs off from the hottest combo going round( Tiley and Jones) he has to be the one to beat in an average field. BUT the negative is he is racing like he needs a middle distance now and he maps to be three back inner behind a moderate tempo.  RP $$3.60, $2.40 FF

8.Deluxe Edition  ran on well last start and is fitter. Gets 3kgs off.

 

Race 3

The speed map shows good speed across the field and an even to fast tempo suiting off pace runners.

Confidence: 2/5

7.Magdala  last campaign bolted in over 1400m at New Plymouth on a heavy track in a very good speed rating. Then she won her trial well. Fresh up at Pukekohe she got to midfield and improved wide at the right time but was beaten to the fast lane by Diogenes, the eventual winner. She was looking around quite a bit even with the blinkers on. I really liked the way she puts her head down when asked to go and gives it 100%, so the step to 1600m looks ideal second up and Rudy will have her fighting fit. She maps to get back behind midfield and with a decent tempo likely along with a track into at the right time, with that 3kgs off, putting her head down and charging, it will take a decent effort to beat her home. BUT, she does have early speed if she jumps cleanly and she may go forward, which is probably the best thing to do accoreding to how the track may play. RP $3.60, $4.40 FF

Dangers:

13.Unacceptable drawn to get a good run and could upset if things go wrong for Magdala.

11.Garnet  has run his best two races here and will be fitter now.

2.Into The Deep  did well fresh up off a tough run 3w in the open and fought for third. Should get a decent run and be in this.

4.Teen Titan  two very good runs and at his peak now.

 

Race 4

The speed map shows Tammie, and Lea going forward and at least an even tempo maybe suiting off pace runners. Any track bias will influence the tempo as well.

Confidence:2/5

11.Easy M’Lady  is a good mare who ran a very good second fresh up in the slower part of the ground. She d3efinitely looked like she would improve with the run. Drawn out wider and will likely snag. With an eevn tempo likely she can track into it and if the inside is not the place to be, she can win. RP $4

Dangers:

9.Flaunting is fitter after two runs and drawn to get a good run this time.

10.Tammie Wynette  ran a game third second up in a good field and will be fitter.

12.Beckidboo  is a nice horse and with 3kgs off and wouldn’t surprise to see her go close fresh up.

6.Leaf  did well last campaign and did too much early fresh up. Best left handed and 1400m suits. Drawn nicely.

Race 5

The speed map shows Crystallize leading with Battle Time and maybe Beauden pushing forward from a wide and a moderate tempo likely suiting runners in the first half of the race.

Confidence: 3/5

4.Crystallize with 4 wins from his last 6 starts, he has really come solid. Last star5t he shared a decent tempo and was run down late by a horse in better ground much wider. This time, he should be able to lead and set his terms and be much harder to beat with just 51kgs on his back and peaking third up. RP $2.40, $2.60 FF

Dangers:

3.Back In A Flash  would have won if she wasn’t held up by the leader 200m out. Peaking now and should get a good run

1.Beauden  is a very good horse but giving plenty of weight to a couple of good horses above.

2.Battle Time  may get a soft sit 2nd outer and place from there.

Race 6

The speed map shows plenty of early speed and fast tempo is likely.

Confidence:1/5 in an open race

11.Lady Lira  from a good draw gets her chance here. Fitter third up with Matt Cameron on. RP $4.50

Dangers:

2.Pacific Master  won well fresh up and if they go hard, which is likely, could do it again.

4.Don Draper ran a good third alongside Lady Lira fresh up and will be an improver.

Race 7

The speed map shows five runners going forward and an even to fast tempo likely setting it up for an off pace runner.

Confidence:2/5

3.London Express  ran on nicely from the back fresh up and she looked a definite improver out of that. Gets 3kgs off again and drawn to land closer and be a good eachway chance. RP $5, $7 FF after opening at $10

Dangers:

4.Speedy Meady  finally get the draw where he can do little work early and tuck in behind as that how he is best ridden. With 3kgs off he gets his chance 3rd up and fitter.

6.Speedy Heights always gives her best and drawn well.

7.Cyber Attack  just got it all wrong fresh up. Drawn to be right in it if the inside is ok.

8.Justacanta put in some top runs over 1200m last campaign. Change of stable and if they do go hard, it would not surprise to see him cgarge home over them.

Race 8

The speed map shows plenty of early speed across the field and a fast tempo likely.

Confidence:1/5

6.Chiaretta  ran an improver’s race at Te Rapa where she snagged back, came wide and ran on nicely for 7th in a harder field. She drops back in class here and if the inside is still ok, she can settle back inner behind what looks to be a fast tempo and use her powerful finish to get over these. RP $6

Dangers:

4.Tonadilas was an impressive winner here fresh up over 1200m from last to first.He looked ready to do the same in his trial when finishing 4th full of running.

5.Palamades  ran a good second fresh up. Drawn to get an ideal run.

7.Lily d’Or  is a very good mare and if ready will be hard to beat.

9.Shoshone  won well on a heavy track last start. This is harder and a better track may not give her that advantage again.

Race 9

The speed map shows Good Vibes, Deejay Mac and My Gift going forward and an even tempo likely suiting all runners.

Confidence: 3/5

1.My Gift  is just a tough stayer as he showed when bolting in last start on a heavy ground. And he also out -toughed the Auckland Cup winner, Roger That to win an open handicap at Te Teko carrying almost the same weight. He is just as good on slow tracks and from the good draw, will plant himself on the speed again and with the 3kgs off again,and Mubs knowing what he is capable of now, he will get every chance to beat this average field. RP $1.80, $2.90 FF

Dangers:

5.Deejay Mac  is likely to try and lead all the way, but even with the 5.5kgs weight advantage over My Gift, I just can’t see him keeping him out at his first run over a middle distance this campaign.

6.Robusto good run fresh up but drawn out and will need to snag or use petrol early. Likely to need one more before being fit enough to hold out an in-form tough My Gift.

Ashburton

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

14.Yolo ran on strongly on debut after getting back on the inside and only getting balanced up late and flashed for third. Out of a very good mare Take Three, who also had a powerful late finishing burst. Will be even fitter for this from the Myers stable and drawn to land closer. RP $2.50, $$2.60 FF

Dangers:

1.Keep Quiet  top run two back and got too far back last start. Fitter now.

 

About Neil Davis

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Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!