Home » Results » Saturday, 22 August 2020 preview below

Saturday, 22 August 2020 preview below

Update: No Head to head or other bets.

The Get Out Of Jail multi is $1449 on Aricina ( Neil) $1.32 top 3 and Derrfield ( The GOAT) $1.28 FF top 3 for a $2448 return Yes

Good morning,

Bookies dream about days like this with 22 races on heavy tracks, with a few jumps races thrown in.  When you can set big fields on heavy tracks to around 130% market, which means punters are getting significantly shorter odds than they would if it was closer to 100%, then you have to make a few real bad  mistakes in assessing the odds to lose money on the day. So it is definitely advantage bookies today. Even in Australia, it is hard to find anything with confidence with rain forecast for The Valley and Randwick having a lot of fresh and second up runners. Sorry to sound negative but punting is a hard game and you have to have patience and know when to back off, and today is one of those days. The only two horses I like all day are at Matamata, Magdala and Aricina. They are both very fit, handle wet tracks and their last runs show that they can win today. Both are at value, so I’m just happy to stick with those today.

Craig, who won the $20 multi Heads Up bet has the GOAT’s best sports tip, Melbourne Demons now  -4.5 at $1.83 in the Ozzie rules today, into Aricina to win at now $2.40 Ff, to return $87.80

The GOAT and I have $1449 to bet on two bets for the Formpro Quaddie Syndicate, which I’ll post by 11 a.m. along with any other head to head or other bets

No further Quality bets on the heavy tracks. Aricina is the only one. An update will be posted by 8.45 a.m. Saturday.

Bet of the Day Matamata Race 3 14.Aricina $2.60 FF Only Quality bet at 6 units at $3 Thursday night when posted

Value bet of the Day Matamata Race 2 10.Magdala $6 FF

Matamata

Race 1

An open race best watched.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

10.Magdala  did very well last start when caught 3 wide on an even tempo and fought gamely for third rating an FR 101. She has rated an FR106 when winning at new Plymouth on a heavy track. She has drawn better this time and maps to land in the first six and from there looks the one to beat. RP $4.50, $6 FF

Race 3

Confidence: 4/5 Quality bet 6 units at $3 FF

14.Aricina bolted in easing down last start at Hawera on a similar surface rating an FR 109. That is by far the biggest rating ever given to an R65 winner. Her sectional splits and race time were superior to Dolcetto’s, who won the Open Handicap the same day. This is a harder field, but if she reproduces that effort again, which I see no reason why she can’t be even better 4th up on 54kgs, with top rider Danielle Johnson up, they are going to prove very, very hard to beat. She actually rates on top after weight adjustments. She maps to land 7th outer behind an even tempo which looks ideal. RP $1.50, $3.20Ff Value staking plan says 6 units at $3.00 Ff

Race 4

Another open race favouring the bookies.

Race 5

Pass in a tricky race.

Race 6

Another race made for the bookies.

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

11.Chiaretta ran a strong second last start second up over 1200m and she is better suited to 1400m now. Drawn to get a good run and looks a solid eachway chance. RP $4.80, $6 Ff

Race 8 First leg of the quaddie.

Confidence: 2/5

3.Demonetization 1st $3.60  looked back to his best when winning at Avondale. He did look like he would improve with that run too, so even with 60kgs, can beat these. RP $4, $4.80 FF

Dangers:

2.Crystallize  always gives his best and with 3kgs off, has to be the one to run down.

1.Sherrif  looked good in his trial and he has come back looking really good.

11.Karalion  ran a nice 5th fresh up and 1400m will suit.

Race 9

Confidence:112/5

2.London Express was well ridden to win last start.Gets 3kgs off again and if the inside is ok, will be the one to beat. RP $4.50

Dangers:

12.Shoshone won well here last start and gets in on a light weight.

9.Viktor Vegas  is ready to win again fresh up after two good trial wins.

Race 10

Confidence: 2/5

6.Viking looked very good in his trial win and was a comfortable winner fresh up. Looks stronger now and drawn well with Leith Inness up. RP $6, $11 Ff

Dangers:

12.Mirazur  looked good winning her maiden. Trialled very well and if inside is off, can win.

4.Make Time  won easily fresh up and with a good run, is right in this.

5.Thistle Do  three strong placings and drawn ideally with 3kgs off.

Race 11

Confidence:1/5

1.My Gift  just beaten here last start and is tough. Will always give his best. RP $4.50

Dangers:

9.Double Happy  did very well off a slow tempo last start to run second. Is looking for ground now and right in this.

5.Collinstreet  game second last start. Better on a slow or better but with 3kgs off and fitter now, could do it.

Awapuni

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

6.Mandalay  looked good running home strongly for second here last start. She was too late to get going and was checked by the fallen runner at the second last. Good jumper and right in this. RP $5

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

3.Raucous did very well fresh up after working to lead and was run down late in better time than the R65 race. Will be improved by that and drawn to get a winning run. RP $4,

Race 7

Confidence: 3/5

1.Deerfield 1st $2.90 just keeps on stepping up and is relishing his racing. Has trained on very well and has been freshened up. 1000m is ideal. RP $2.20, $2.50 FF

Race 8

Tough race for the first leg of the quaddie.

The Formpro Ratings have these in order: 2-6-10-13. Include 5.My Father’s Gun.

Race 9

Another tough race. In order for the Formpro Ratings:  5-3-10-1

Race 10

4.Tavis Court  gets in on a winning weight and drawn to get every chance. Racing in career best form. RP $4.50 , $5 FF

Dangers:

7.Rock Island Line had every chance last start and battled the last 50 metres over more ground. So back to 1400m will be ideal.

10.Skarloey  has looked in need of his last two runs. If inside is ok, is right in this.

Race 11

Confidence: 2/5

6.Hurry Cane 1st $2.40   was a dominant winner last start and fitter. The one to beat alright. RP $3.50

Dangers:

2.Charlie Horse is tough and is right at his peak now with 3kgs off.

7.Hi I’m Nikita  is better than that last start. Could easily win if right at her best.

 

 

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!