In terms of performance, it couldn’t have been a more inauspicious start! Very disappointing day for the selections although the Predictor at Palmerston North was on fire. Just not the races I wanted.
For those that have been following the selections from the Ratings site, we are still well up but hopefully we can get a better result on Thursday for Formpro subscribers.
Update at 2pm
After a very rough start, the Predictor has got
4 5 in a row but that’s racing. No carry forward for the quaddie and it does look like there’s a few anchors.
There is a terminating pick 6 across the two meetings starting with race race 10 at PN. Some thoughts
leg 1 (PN) – 3 a potential anchor, if you’re looking for cover, add 7 and 5 for a bit of value if 3 misses the jump
leg 2 – 1 another anchor – missed – top box speed won
leg 3 (PN) – 3 and 1 from the kind draw
leg 4 – looks the toughest leg – Predictor top pick wins
leg 5 (PN) – 4, 2 and 7 for cover
leg 6 – 1 and 2 missed
Update at 12.40
That’s been a disappointing start to the day after a few weeks of consistently good results. There could well be a decent carryforward from the early quaddie so I’ll post a quaddie bet before race 9.
A bit of a change – for a start, it’s a Tuesday, it’s not Neil and we’re gone to the dogs.
I’ve been doing selections on a Tuesday along with the free ratings at Formpro Ratings and we’ve decided to move the selections across to the Formpro site for a trial. In addition to Tuesdays, I’ll also provide selections for Thursday night races which are typically at Addington.
And just to repeat – there are still free ratings today at formproratings.co.nz.
My main bets are below. I’ll update during the day and post quaddies if there are any decent carry forwards.
10 Unit Strategy
I’ve been using a 10 unit strategy with my selections – it can be useful to have a clear strategy given there are 24 races across the two meetings.
3 units win Big Time Jewel @ 1.80 M3 R2 missed
2 units win Opawa Dawn @ 2.20 M3 R1 3rd
2 units win Horse Range Gold @ 2.70 M9 R3 third after having every chance
1 unit EW (2 units total) Zipping Luther @ 7.00 M3 R3 missed
1 unit win Gracias Maestro @ 2.90 M9 R4 scratched – so we got 1 unit back!
Palmerston North M3 R2 Big Time Jewel (8)
I’m going early with my best bet – it’s also a Double Up race. A couple of starts back, Jewel lead over the 457m at PN but was run down in the straight. She was a good second to a form dog at Hatrick last start. She is back to the shorter 410m and from box 8 where she has won 2 from 2. It’s not the strongest of fields and she rates on top.
Rated price $1.75 currently $1.80 (this is a double up race)
Bombed the start and that was it.
Palmerston North M3 R2 Zipping Luther (5)
I think there’s some value around Zipping Luther. Three starts back he was in C4 class, the last couple C3/4 and today he’s running around in C1/2. he’s run 4th or 5th in tougher classes since his last start at C2 which he won. He’s a slow trapper but there isn’t a lot of early speed in this race either. He actually ran the 9th best closing sectional last week and if he can repeat here today will be right in it.
Rated priced $4.00 currently $7.05FFW 2.05FFP
Double Up Race 1 Palmerston North
Palmerston North M3 R1 Opawa Dawn (3)
The first of the double up races is race 1 and I think it’s worth a small play on Opawa Dawn. It’s a race largely devoid of form and early speed. She looks to be the clear pacemaker and last week first around Palmerston she got a little lost at the turn. She may not have liked having dogs on her outer but she maps to be a clear leader. She still kicked on but the ruckus cost her a better rating. Her opening sectional was just a couple of lengths slower than some really good C5 dogs so she has a chance here to put a decent break on them and if she can kick again should be too good.
Rated priced $2.00 currently $2.20FF
Rough result to start the day. Dawn was a little slow off the lids and in the end that was the losing of the race.
Going for Gold
Addington M9 R3 Horse Range Gold (1)
I was interested to see what the bookies opened the red rug in the Addington rugs challenge – but there’s not a lot to get excited about $1.33! Horse Range Gold looks to be mapped to win today – there’s no other early pace in this race. HRG downgraded two starts back so is clearly up to winning C1 and has a great record from box 1.
Rated priced $2.20 currently $2.70FF
Addington M9 R4 Gracias Maestro (3)
According to the Ratings, Gracias Maestro wins – top rated across all metrics, maps to lead, drawn well and recently downgraded. She gets a much better draw today in a race without a lot of depth. It’s not a great confidence bet but it’s hard not to see her being her in the mix given the ratings and there’s a little bit of value around the $2.90.
Rated priced $2.50 currently $2.90FF
Good luck, David