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Friday selections below

New Plymouth

Head To Heads 

Race 1 Fighting Fire $1.65 to beat Nancy Spain ( race 1 preview as to why. ) No

Race 3 Meila Rei $1.75 to beat Thistle do – Meila Rei  ( See preview below )  Yes

Race 4 Levon $1.85 to beat Jimmy From Mayo ( See preview below )  yes

Race 5 Kirkland $1.90 to beat Beaudz Well  No

Lay of the day Race 4 2.Jimmy From Mayo $3.60 Yes- it was gone a long way out

 

Update 8.45 a.m. next update by 12.15 with any head to heads etc

Bet of the Day Race 8 11.Penelope Cruise $3.20 FF 1st $3.70 

Value bet of the day Race 5 1.Kirkland $9 FF

New Plymouth

Early Saturday preview here

Rail out 8m and a heavy 11 +

I’ll post an update by 8.45 a.m. Friday

The horses that have the galloping action, are race fit  and have form on a very heavy track are:

Race 1 1.Fighting Fire $3.40 Ff

Race 5 1.Kirkland $9 and $3 Ff

Race 8 11.Penelope Cruise $3 FF  1st $3.70 

 

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

1.Fighting Fire  ran a game second on debut on a very heavy track to a nice horse. Ran on well second up over 1300m. He has an ideal high knee action for a very heavy track and is third up from the strong Stephen Marsh stable. RP $2.70, $2.90 FF

Dangers:

1.Nancy Spain  1st $3.40 ran  game third on debut in a stronger maiden filed in a good speed rating. Drawn wide but has the early speed to get handy and if she can get cover, even 3 wide, is the one Fighting Fire has to hold out- the negative is her action says a slow or better track would suit best.

 

Race 2

Confidence: 3/5

2.Klassen 1st $1.80  looked good winning his Trial at Foxton- he ran 1.02.03 and a closing L600m of 35.98. In the open heat earlier in the day nearer the inside, they ran 1.03.4, 8 lengths slower and only 2 lengths faster Last 600m than Klassen’s. Drawn out but has the early speed to get handy and a heavy track should be ok. RP $2.20, $2.00 Ff

Danger:

1.Mind You  on debut began well but got his head up and got a bit keen and sat 2nd outer. he fought well for second but his action suggests he needs a better surface to be backed with confidence.

3.Mega Bourbon  looked good in his last trial when in behind the leaders but had no room but found the line nicely for fourth. But his action says a better track would be needed to back him with confidence.

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

5.Meila Rei 2nd $1.60  rated FR99 last start, a career best on a very heavy track. She is very fit so looks a decent chance of holding out the favourite. RP$3.50, $4

Dangers:

2.Justaskme  1st $2.80  won impressively here fresh up on a Dead 4 track and did ok at Trentham. His action says a bog will be ok so with the 3kgs off, looks the one Meila Rei has to hold out.

1.Thistledo got back and loomed near the inner 200m out but battled in the very heavy ground. This is slightly easier but is giving good weight to some fit in-form horses who will relish this ground more.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

1.Our Fair Trade  handled the slow to heavy track in his last trial well to lead and hold on well. Looks a strong galloper suited to 1400m on debut. RP $4.00

Dangers:

3.Levon has been going well in the jumpouts and trials are ok. Ready to fire on debut with plenty of money to say it can be a winning one.

2.Jimmy From Mayo  ran home ok on debut but hung right handed. May be better left handed but a very heavy track is a query so $3.30 is too short. Plus he has Hoof Pads on which just don’t help on wet tracks.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

1.Kirkland – Has the best FR on a heavy track of 101 on a very heavy track at Wanganui over 1600m last September 5th up. He is fifth up again.

Last start in a stronger field over 2200m he was wide in the open for the first half of the race, worked to lead 800m out and after being headed on the turn, battled well for fifth. Drops back to 1600m in a weaker R65 race. Gets 3kgs off, so does look well placed to bounce back. RP $5.50, $9 Ff

Dangers:

2.Waisake  rated strongly when 6th here fresh up last year running on strongly.

4.Way Above  did well to win in the slower inner ground last start. If the inside is ok, should be in it.

5.Beaudz Well  has run two nice races and is fitter now. Gets 3kgs off and has won here over 1600m. Likely to prefer a better track though as his best form has been on Dead and better and his action says that too.

6.Nomoathaj  is the $5 favourite but had his chance last start and drawn out.

Race 6

Confidence:2/5

1.Into The Deep  game third fresh up off a tough run..Game second here over 1600m on a very heavy track. Flat second up and looks well placed here third up. RP $4.50

Dangers:

9.Aratoka last campaign bolted in here on a heavy track over 1600 in 1.43.9.

2.Shakespeare  is a nice horse and trialed well. Drawn the inside so needs that to be ok.

8.Tiro  strong second last start with a gap to third. Peaking now.

6.Jazamour  is a nice horse and can go back to back.

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

1.Quiz Kid 1st $3.60  two starts back ran a game second over 1600m then last start missed the jump and had to work wide to get on the pace and went too fast, so faded over the 2100m. Back to 1800m where he maps to slide over 2nd outer, means he will be harder to run down. RP $3.50, $3.80 FF

Dangers:

10.Jenever  will be suited by 1800m now with 3kgs off.

12.Breath Of Life  found 2100m too far last start. Back to 1800m with a senior rider up are plusses.

9.Amazing Team  strong second two starts back behind a smart horse. 1800m suits now.

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

11.Penelope Cruise  1st $3.70   won impressively two starts back and then ran a close fifth in a strong field last start. Danielle Johnson suits her and drawing away from the rail should be a plus. her action is ideal for a slog. RP $3.00, $3.10 FF

Dangers; 

2.Overtheriver  ran a strong third last start and is peaking now with 3kgs off.

1.Rosewood  has had two runs back and if the inside is ok, should be in it.

3.Collinstreet  racing well- would prefer on a better surface but gets in on a winning weight.

About Neil Davis

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Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!