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Saturday 29 August preview below

Update 11.05 a.m. No further updates today.

Tauranga

Head to Heads ( Just the one) 

Race 1 Francesca $1.65 v  Sheza Jackal who maps to be caught on the rails in a sit sprint. ( See preview below) No and a disappointing finish

Suggested Sydney Quaddie $21 for 50% Paid $2363 so $1181 returned for $21

R6   1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 12
R7    1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7
R8    3
R9    7

Update 8.15 a.m.

Good morning,

I’ve previewed both NZ meetings and a couple of Australian races. There’s a Good track at Sydney which will be a sight for sore eyes. An update will be posted by 12.30 p.m. for Tauranga and 11.45 for Riccarton with any head to head or other bets. No Quality bets so far.

Aaron P, who won the $20 Heads Up Multi has Tauranga R1 Francesca $2.10 and R2 Cheval Prometteur $2.80 to return $117.60

The Get Out Of Jail bet for $2448 is on Tauranga R1 Francesca Top 3 place $1.10,  and R2 Cheval Prometteur $1.30 Top 3, to return $3,501 Yes

 

Bet of the Day Tauranga Race 2 7.Cheval Prometteur $2.80 FF 1st $2.00 in from $3.40 

Value Bet of the Day Riccarton race 5 2.Athene $5.50 FF 4th – had her chance.

Speed map Special Rosehill Race 9 7.Prime Candidate $4.60 FF 1st $4.50 

Sneaky of the day Riccarton Race 4 2.Jack The Ripper $18 into $12 Ff Fair run after working hard early.

 

Rosehill

Race 8

Confidence: 3/5

3.Mugatoo 1st $2  is a top horse and once he balances up there’s is hardly a horse in Australia that could outfinish him. He bolted in last start and trialled up just like you want to see him. His times, sectionals and ratings say he is at least two classes above these. The negative is the low draw but Kerrin McEvoy is a smart rider who will ensure he is off the rail when he needs to be. It is the sort of race where you are only allowing for bad luck to beat you. RP $1.70, $2.20 Ff

Race 9

Confidence:3/5

7.Prime Candidate  1st $4.50 has had three starts on wet tracks for good races, but he best on top of the ground and after a nice trial, he has found the right race to lead and dictate. His speed ratings on dry tracks say that he will be very hard to catch in this with mainly fresh runners and off pace runners. RP $3.50, $4.60 FF

 

Tauranga and Riccarton now previewed

 

Heads Up is here with a preview of the Kiwifruit Cup, your chance to win a $20 multi, Stump The Goat and much more

Aaron P won the $20 Heads Up multi which I’ll post tomorrow morning.

For the Formpro Quaddie Syndicate Get Out Of Jail stakes, we have $2448 in the bank chasing down $10,760 – we will post the two bets by noon tomorrow.

Update 2.02 p.m. ( Next Update by 6 p.m.  with Riccarton )

No Quality gets.

Best two bets so far are Tauranga Race 1 6.Francesca $2.30 FF and race 2 .Cheval Prometteur $2.90 FF

Update 11.10 a.m.

Tauranga racecourse 10.30 a.m. Friday and looking terrific.

The track is a heavy 11 and will be holding as I found it hard to pull my Stickometer out often. The inside few metres is no disadvantage for the first 3 or 4 races. I’d say around 1.15 to 1.16 for truly run 1200m races. It is fairly even right across till the outside where it is better but they are unlikely to get out there unless they all go out there.

Early Saturday preview – next update by 2 p.m. Friday after I have walked the track.

No Quality bets so far.

Race 1

The speed map shows Lapel leading with Golden Hue likely to share the pace or take it up and a moderate tempo likely.

Confidence: 3/5

6.Francesca looked good winning her trial coming from off the pace and getting over them late but she did hang out left handed. Then on debut she drew wide, began ok but was caught wide and back from the wide draw, but once balanced up, came home better than anything else over the 100m with a gear or three up her sleeve. She looks a very good galloper from the Baker/Forsman and strikes an average field of three year olds at SW and Penalties. Drawn out and that should give Matt Cameron options where he wants to place her. Update: with scratchings should land 3rd outer and main danger on her inside in the trail or 3 back inner, so will definitely have the advantage. Her action and breeding suggests a heavy track will be ok. RP $2.20, $2.30 FF

Dangers:

5.Sheza Jackal  last start was lost for early speed, got back and once out ran home strongly for 2nd to a nice horse. Her actions suggests a slower or better track and drawn the inside here so will need luck if 3 back inner as they won’t go hard and she looks a wind up type suited to a better tempo.

2.Lapel  had her chance in her trial when on the pace and was ridden out to run third. Well bred but Francesca just looks better.

Race 2

The speed map shows 7 and 10 sharing a moderate tempo favouring runners in the first half of the race.

Confidence: 3/5

7.Cheval Prometteur 1st $2 looked good winning fresh up over 1100m right handed at Avondale then second up over 1400m left handed at Te Rapa, led off the rail with eventual winner Ladylax on his inner. He had to come wide for better ground, was headed, then fought back from third for second in a good speed rating. The step to 1600m is ideal as he has won up to 2000m in the UK.  From the draw, he should be able to lead with Rukuhia on his outside. I can’t see anything taking them on so a moderate tempo is likely so third up and peaking, he should be able to beat Rukuhia home and being the second race, the inside is likely to still be ok as he seems to like hugging that rail. Sam Spratt knows him better now too and she is a very good front running rider. The hoof pads come off too which is always a plus. And after walking the track, he is going to be well suited by leading in what is slightly better ground. RP $2.80, $3.50 FF

Dangers:

2.Ocean Billy  loves it here having won 3 of his 4 races here. Trialed up really nicely and likely to trail or be three back and be a chance from there but can’t see him running down Cheval in a sprint home.

4.Livin’ On A Prayer  has had two runs back and is fitter. Gets in nicely at the weights and would not surprise to see her in this.

3.Inscription  is a good mare who has a fast last 200m regardless of the tempo. But that is likely to be negated on a heavy 11 track in a sprint home where she is likely to be back outer according to the map. Has drifted in price since opening too which is always a negative from this stable.

Race 3

The Speed map shows five runners looking to lead or be on it and runners from out wide looking to go forward. It is likely to set up for a closer.

Confidence: 2/5

4.The Belvoir  in his last trial reared at the start and almost lost the navigator but got back and did very well to get over Annie’s Song, who has won races. In his previous trial he was slow away and ran on late full of running. Likely to get back but with plenty of tempo likely up front, looks to have the ability to get over these. RP $5

Dangers:

3.Mac’s Express in all of his four runs has had tough trips and done ok. Drawn to get a better run this time.

12.You Wish  has looked good winning her two trials and has early speed. If she can get across quickly to a good spot, can place at good odds.

2.Happy Ego has run two good seconds on heavy tracks. Needs luck from the wide draw.

Race 4

The speed map shows plenty of early speed right across the field setting it up for a closer.

Confidence: 2/5

6.Pacific Master  won strongly from last at Pukekohe fresh up and is a strong horse. Then second up at Matamata left handed, got back and they didn’t go hard enough for him and he ran home strongly late for 8th, in 35.42, the fastest of the race. But this time, there is a much stronger chance  of a better tempo up front which will allow him to track into it and get over these. RP $4, $4.40 Ff

Dangers:

1.Divine Dive  1st $4  is in strong form with a solid second in the best Speed rated race last star. Drawn to get all favours and if they don’t go too fast, is the one Master has to get over.

14.Whoshe’s Girl  is an upset chance at good odds. Good third last start in the slower part of the straight and gets in on a light weight where she will get back and if the gaps open near the inside could just about do it.

5.Manrico  ran a close second last start second up in a good rating and can only improve off that. Gets 2kgs off.

Race 5

The speed map shows Air Centre and Donna Anne Billy likely to share the pace

Confidence: 2/5

6.Air Centre scr  ran two strong seconds in good fields. Then last start the rider was trapped in the slower inner ground where you had no chance, so he id well to run fourth. Ideally drawn here and should lead with Donna likely to be content to sit outside him. The 1300m is a stretch for him if they go hard, so Shaun McKay may opt to take a sit if taken on, but I can’t see that. RP $5, $7.00 Ff

Dangers:

10.Sweet Clementine 1st $8  is a good mare who is racing with real enthusiasm. Last start she had the sand coming back at her which put her off. Drawn to land 3 back inner this time and from there, could do it if they go faster than expected.

3.Battle Time  is racing well and goes best here. Drawn to get the trail and with the 2kgs off, should be amongst this.

5.Nasha Riva  loves her home track and despite the draw, if she can get 3 wide with cover, and they go along ok, she will make it interesting.

Race 6

The speed map shows  four runners looking to go forward as well as My Gift and one or two others, so a fast early pace and at least an even one after that so a fit horse will be needed.

Confidence: 3/5

1.My Gift 2nd qu  $10 bolted in here last year on a similar very heavy track. He has been racing really well this campoaign and just has that will to win. With 3kgs off, he gets in ok, so does look the one to beat here where he should land in the first six and be able to angle wider towards the centre on the bend and he just puts his head down and gives it everything. And I do feel he is better suited right handed as well, as he has won 3 of his last four starts right handed with the only miss fresh up this campaign over 1600m. Last Saturday, he had 21 days between starts and was soft in the market, indicating he may just have needed that with this being his aim. It is hard to see him beaten with Mishka out now and a weak, out of form field. RP $2.20, $2.60 FF

Dangers:

7.Junior 1st $7 selected by the GOAT on Heads Up   won his maiden here and after three runs back, will be very fit for this. Gets 2kgs off.

6.Windy Height  is racing well after a good second to Al Haram last start. Doesn’t win too often but with a good run likely, can place.

5.Grand Bouquet is the best bred mare in the race and has good overseas form. Right race to get back into form.

Race 7

The speed map shows no obvious leader but a few that will want to near it.

13.Falkirk Lass  has won her last two races here over 1400m on heavy 11 tracks. Last start second up she had no chance after leading 400m out on the slower inside and fading out. The inside is likely to be ok still so from the inside draw, she can land in a midfield spot and could upset these on her home track after two runs back. RP $9, $17 FF

Dangers:

1.Answer Back  two starts had no chance in a stronger field won by Major tom when weakening in the slower inner ground. Last start worked wide and battled on ok. Drawn ideally this time and gets 2kgs off.

11.Poker Queen  won her maiden here and ran a strong second two back. Could try and lead here and prove hard to peg back with the light weight.

3.Boston Strong Boy  impressive winner fresh up and ok second up. Drawn to get a good run.

2.El Coolio  won well in a good rating last start and is fitter. The heavy track is not his preferred surface though with just 3 placings from 8 starts so is a false favourite.

Riccarton

Back to a Dead 5 which is good to see.

Race 1

Confidence: 3/5

2.Zoltan  was ridden just right last start and came with a very strong late run to beat the hotty Matchmaker. The Speed rating, despite it being 30m less than the advertised distance, was still the best of the day. The step to 1200m will suit even better and he would have learnt a lot from that last run too. Up against his stablemate, Eva James here, but she could be a bit suspect at a truly run 1200m now especially after a 42 day break, so I’m quite keen on Zoltan getting over her in the last 50 metres. RP$2.50, $3.10 FF

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

5.Russian Fable has run two strong seconds, the last looking like the step to 1400m would suit now. Drawn to get a cosy run near the pace and with Razor drawn wide likely to get a bit keen and get a tougher run, she looks well placed on 53.5kgs and peaking now. RP $4, $4 FF

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

6.Sunny Lady did well here two starts back over 1400m when wide and fought well for third. Got back and wide last start so forgive. Drawn to be right on the pace here and has broken 1.10 here over 1200m so a better track is no concern. RP $7, $12 Ff

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

2.Jack The Ripper  is a nice galloper who wasn’t happy in the slow to heavy stuff on debut. But he showed what he can do on a better track in his recent trial when he was allowed to settle 4th outer and strode home with a really good long stretch to win over 1100m. 1800m suits and if he can get a nice run with cover from the wide draw, he can upset these. RP $8, $14 opened $18 FF

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

2.Athene two starts back had a tough run and still won strongly in a very good speed rating. Last start back to 1200m got held up and ran on late for seventh. Much better suited to 1400m here and should get a good run. She is a good mare and a strong eachway chance in this. RP $4, $5.50 Ff

Dangers:

5.The Buffer if they go hard could swamp these. Unlucky last start and can unwind when allowed to.

Race 6

Even tempo likely with 5 x leaders and/or on pace runners.

Confidence:1/5 in an open race

11.Carson River 1st $7  showed he was back to near his best last start here. The step to his favourite distance of 1400m is a plus as well as 2kgs off. Should get the right trip and be a solid eachway chance from the Pitman stable. RP $5, $7.50 FF

Dangers:

10.Meara Mary  is a good mare and drawn to be in this and third up now at her favourite distance.

2.Neeson  drawn to get the right trip and if fit enough can win.

9.Augustace  found 1600m too far last start. Back to his favoured 1400m suits.

Race 7

Confidence: 3/5

2.He Kin Fly  should not have won last start as they didn’t go hard up front but he was just too fast and too good. Fitter third up and just needs a clear crack at them from the inside draw to beat these again despite the weight. RP $2.50, $3.10 FF

Dangers:

7.Nellie Bly 2nd after the rider was obsessed with holding in he Kin Fly for longer than needed  is slightly better off at the weights and fitter.

4.Pippi Rae  from the inside draw should get the right run and if He Kin Fly cops trouble, she can win.

Race 8

Confidence:2/5

2.Major Tom won really well here last start over 1600m and the step to 2000m is only going to suit him better. Just needs a decent ride to win but drawn to maybe be caught wide. RP $2.80, $2.30 FF

Dangers:

4.Frankie The Fox  has always looked like he needed 2000m and get it now. Weighted nicely.

7.Five Princes 1st $14 back to 2000m here looks ideal with a drop in weight.

3.Kaharau  is fitter now and 2000m suits better.

Race 9

Confidence:2/5

3.Kandari  won very strongly last start leading all the way in the best speed rating all day. May have to take a sit here but is right on top of her game now from a top stable who keeps them in top form. RP $4. $4.40 FF

Dangers:

6.Gee Tee Eleanor  back to 1600m suits and weighted well and from the right draw.

1.Camino Rocoso  only knows one thing and that is to get out and go. Could steal it.

2.Upperhand no joy in the straight last start. If inside is off, could swamp these.

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!