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Thursday preview below

 

Update 11.31

Head to heads

Race 1 Our Cuzzie $2 to beat Raucous ( See preview below) No 4th and 3rd

Race 3 Sir Beets $1.90 to beat Renault who got back and didn’t do a lot on debut. Sir Beets will handle the ground well and is fitter. Yes

Multi of the day Our Cuzzie H2H $1.90 to beat Raucous onto Race 2 1.Classclown to win $3.40 $64.60 for $10

Otaki

This is a tricky track when heavy as the bias is usually well off the rail later in the day, yet other times it isn’t. Quaddies seem the best way to go with a good spread. I’ll update by 12.15 p.m. with any Head to Head or other bets. Tough course to make money on when it is heavy.

Bet of the Day Race 2 1.Classclown $3.40 FF

Value bet of the Day Race 1 3.Our Cuzzie $4.80 FF

Early quaddie: $11.20 for 20%

R1    1, 3
R2    1
R3    1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9
R4    2, 6, 7, 9

Late quaddie $18 for 10%

R5   1, 5, 11, 13
R6    2, 6, 7
R7    1, 2, 6
R8    2, 3, 5, 8, 9

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

3.Our Cruzzie  beat home a few of these on debut on a very heavy track after having to change ground 300m out. He will have improved with that and looks nicely placed here. Beat the favourite, Raucous by 2L last start on a heavy track coming from behind him and only a 2kg swing and needs 3kgs to level, plus draw against Raucous who does tend to over race. RP $4, $4.80 FF

Danger:

1.Kion has the best two FRs ( Formpro Ratings)  on a Heavy track over a middle distance. Fitter now and gets 3kgs off. Hoof Pads on which is a negative on a wet track.

4.Raucous  game second fresh up on a slow track and beaten by 2L by Our Cuzzie on a heavy track last start. Action is better for a slow or better track so $3.90 is too short. tends to over race a bit too.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

1.Classclown ran four strong close second last campaign off some tough runs. Good 4th fresh up over 1600m in a stronger R65 field. Steps to a middle distance again and looks the one to beat. RP $3

Dangers:

8.Relda has had three runs back now and gets 2kgs off and is up to a distance she likes.

4.Magic Ivan  gets to a distance he prefers and is fit.

Race 3

Confidence:2/5

5.Platinum Rain 3rd in his last trial and was full of running. Highly thought of and heading for the 2000 Guineas. Nice galloper. RP $3.50, $4.80 Ff

Dangers:

1.Sir Beets  ran a good 4th on a heavy 11 track at Awapuni in a stronger maiden with good form. Tightened up second up, then got back to last, was held up and ran on nicely. Fitter and should fight it out with his stablemate.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

7.Regal Ripa  looked good winning her trial drawing away with an ideal wet track action. RP $4.50

6.Erna  won her trial with a bit of grit on the heavy track

2.Multi Show  won his trial easily then ran on under his own steam for third in his last one.

9.Irish Player raced too keenly after a slow start at Waverley. Recovered well after a check 600m out though.If he can begin better could do it.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

1.Harry Hewitt strong finishing second fresh up and has a good heavy track action and 3kgs off.

5.Trosettee strong finish for second on debut in good SR. Wide draw may help.

13.Oriental Bay  is soaking up punters money but maybe she just wasn’t fit enough and will be now.

11.Vidette Rouge  good third fresh up and will be fitter.

Race 6

2.If You Dance found the line nicely last start when 3rd to Wee Dram in a good speed rating. Fitter third up now and gets 3kgs off. RP $3.50

Dangers: 

6.Khalfani  good third two back and didn’t like the taupo track. Back to 1400m too will help.

7.Miss Falvelon solid 4th fresh up and 1400m suits now.

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

1.Spijker will be peaking now third up after two solid placings.

Dangers:

6.Fajiolo Majico  has had a few chances but was a bit unlucky second up. Fitter now and gets 2kgs off. Ran 3rd to Happy Star on a heavy 11 at Trentham.

2.Little Uzi  should be fitter after two good 4th.

Race 8

Confidence: 1/5

8.Tumbleweed  was a strong winner two back and didn’t back up 14 days later. better than that and can bounce back here.

2.Ringthebelldarci  is a nice horse and was beaten by Tumbleweed at Wanganui.

5.Bellissimo has run two strong seconds and a wide draw with 3kgs off could be two ticks.

9.Wee Dram strong win third up in a good speed rating and fitter as well – 2kgs off a plus as well.

3.My Father’s Gun  won strongly last start and the wide draw could be a real plus by this time of day.

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!