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Wednesday preview below

Highlight was five winners on top including the best and value bets

Update 10.20 a.m. No further bets

Matamata

Slow 8 rail out 9m usually favouring on pace runners early on anyway.

Good morning,

Some handy horses stepping out today. No real standouts today and no Quality bets. But there look to be a few nice eachway chances.I’ll post an update by 11 a.m. with any Head to head or other bets.

Bet of the Day Race 5 6.Escudo $3.20 FF 1st $2.90 

Value bet of the day Race 1 9.El Nymph $7 FF 1st $5.50 

Suggested late quaddies:

Main one for $12 for 10%

R7   5, 6, 8, 9
R8   1, 2, 8, 9, 10, 12
R9   14
R10   3, 4, 6, 12, 14

Saver: $24 for 5%

R7   5, 6, 8, 9
R8   1, 2, 8, 9, 10, 12
R9   1, 2, 3, 7
R10   3, 4, 6, 12, 14

Race 1

Confidence:2/5

9.El Nymph 1st $5.50   two starts back on a similar surface here, she drew wide, was caught 4 wide in the open midfield then moved up 3w in the open 800m out, led on the turn and was run down late by Prestigious Lad who had a better run in the 1×1. The speed rating was good as well. Then next up she got back at Taupo over 1800m and ran on well for fourth on the tighter track and may have backed up a bit quick ( 11 days) . This time she has had a 30 day freshen up, drawn to land closer and gets 1kgs off. She looks a nice eachway chance in the first race. RP $5, $7 FF

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

2.Checkers 2nd $2  last start was a bit slow out and got back, then circled the whole field to lead 150 metres out only to be run down by Initiative, who took shortcuts. His L600m of 41.46 was very good considering the ground he covered. That was his second up run so he is peaking now. RP $4, $5.50 FF

Danger:

7.Magdala  disappointed last start after a top run here for third. This is a weaker R65 field and with 2kgs off can bounce back as she showed the ability to win more races last campaign.

Race 3

Confidence:2/5

8.Limentis 1st $3.40 was a bit slow away last start here and was last early then worked a bit to get midfield, but was still able to keep taking ground off the winner late with a gap to the rest. Drawn well and with a better beginning and peaking now, she does look a solid eachway chance. RP $4.50

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

12.Lord Painton  has run two strong seconds on heavy tracks. Fitter third up now and 1400m will suit as will the better track. RP $4

Danger:

5.Hola Senorita 1st $3.80  just beaten last start. Very fit now and the one the Lord has to nail.

Race 5

Confidence: 3/5

6.Escudo 1st $2.90  a top 2nd here behind the smart Yourpoint. The way she trialed at Rotorua recently when she settled about 7th, got wider 500m out and was not asked to go when full of running, shows that she is right on target for a top run fresh up. The wide draw is no help but with a run with cover off the pace, she can do it – the Slow 8 should be good enough for her. RP $2.60

Danger:

3.No Limits  had its chance on debut and only battled on for fifth. No value at $3.20 FF

Race 6

1.Makzabeel 1st $2.90   on debut ran on well for third in the slower part of the track for third in a good speed rating. Fitter and looks to have good upside. RP $4

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5 with one of the four below taking out the first leg of the quaddie.

9.Gallardo  ran a very good second here last start second up. She got back from a wide draw, got going 600m out wide in the open and fought hard for second. Fitter third up from the strong Pike stable and Samantha Collett knows her better now. RP $3.80, $4.40 FF

Dangers

5.Rising Renown  looked good winning two starts back then last start here bounced first from a wide draw but snagged back and was 11th 4w cover then after straightening up seemed reluctant to take gaps. So the side winkers go on and from the good draw, has the early speed to land closer and be harder to beat.

8.Siracusa 1st 3   had every chance and ran on well late fresh up. Won second up impressively last campaign over 1400m. 1600m will suit now. Rates on top in the Formpro Ratings after weight adjustments.

6.Because won strongly at Hastings then at Tauranga began best from the wide draw but was planted 4 wide on a decent tempo and had to fade. Forgive that. Maybe better left handed too and drawn the inner with 2kgs off this time.

Race 8

The speed map shows plenty of leaders and speed so could set up for a closer.

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race.

1.Saint Croix  did very well here last start when wide at the back, widest on the turn then ran home strongly for 2nd in the best L600m and the form out of it has been ok. Gets 3kgs off and likely to get back off a decent tempo and be powering home. RP $5.50

Dangers:

9.Ocean Belle beat subsequent impressive winner Vamos Bebe last start in a good speed rating. She does have an action better suited to Deed or better tracks though so if the inside is off, she could be in trouble.

2.Kamikaze 1st $3.60 won well on debut but the speed rating was just ok and he beat a weak maiden field after getting a soft sit outside the leader.

12.Nuclear Fusion  has the best FR on a Slow to heavy track. She fought hard for third to two handy horses last start over 1400m and is better suited to 1200m.

10.Tangodanzer  looked good getting handy from a wide draw and then before the turn, showed a good turn of foot to put a decent break on them and held on to win well. Back to 1200m suits as does 2kgs off.

8.First Rock  has rated well against better horses. Drawn to get a good trip.

Race 9

Confidence: 2/5 Cornflower does look good and if Danielle can give her a good run from that wide gate, she does look the winner. But there are some handy ones to beat her if she doesn’t.

14.Cornflower Blue  1st $1.60   ran a game second ( gap to third) to the smart Need I say More who won on Saturday at Te Rapa). She has had two trials since lockdown and won them both- the last very strongly handling the slow ground well after sharing the pace. RP $2.60

Dangers:

1.The Villain has run two strong seconds over 1300m and 1400m. Back to 1200m suits with his early speed and race fitness edge now.

2.Major Billy Lister ran a solid third to a couple of progressive horses out of his grade in an R65 race at Rotorua last start.  Drawn well with Jason Waddell up.

3.I’m Capable  looked good leading all the way in his last trail at Te Rapa. Drawn to lead or be on it.

7.Marley fought well for a close third last start. Fitter third up now and has 3kgs off.

 

Race 10

Confidence: 2/5 Some promising types here and happy to leave Charred out as she has had plenty of chances and her best form is the other way round.

14.Rising Road before the race I was keen on her chances but the trainer said before the race he was concerned about the very heavy track. It was her first run over ground at only her third start so she did very well to lead, get taken on and  fight well for fourth. So on the better surface today, and from the good draw, if the inside is ok, she can win. RP $5, $7 FF

Dangers:

3.Wind Chimes did very well when getting back in the slower inner ground and was only able to get out wider into the better ground after turning in. He charged home for second in 41.21, the second fastest L600 with a very nice action on him indicating he will be suited by a middle distance now. Having the side winkers on for the first time appeared to have helped as well.

4.Can’t Find One  on debut really knuckled down strongly late to get up for second with a good staying action in the slower part of the track. He ran the fastest L600 of the race and from the good draw, get every chance.

6.A’Nood Dude  found the line hard late last start as though he just realised what he was there for. The step to 2000m looks ideal with Danielle Johnson up.

12.Solid Contact is the best bred horse racing today out of the smart I Do costing $200k. He has had two runs and ran a fair race last start over 1600m and the tongue tie goes on, so may have had a breathing issue. Just too well bred with 3kgs off from a good draw to leave out.

About Neil Davis

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Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!