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Friday preview below

Highlights were Nogolf Etikit winning at $6 as value bet of the day. William Wallace putting up a big effort to win at $5. And laying odds on trial winner Jolene who was never a $2.50 or less chance off that average trial win.

Update 11.50 a.m. No further bets. Next update by 5 p.m. with an early preview of Saturday.

Hawera

Good morning,

Some big fields today. No Quality bets. I’ll post an update by 12.15 with any Head to heads or other bets.

Bet of the day Race 9 2.No Compromise $3.70 FF 2nd $1.80

Value bet of the day Race 3 10.Nogolf Etikit $5.50 1st $6 

Race 3

Confidence:2/5

10.Nogolf Etikit 1st $6 last start at her first go over a middle distance she ran on very well in slightly slower ground ( 2nd fastest L600m off a wide run)  on the inner for third and second was Captaintwinkletoes, who won next up. The blinkers go on and Samantha Collett replaces the apprentice so looks well placed now fourth up. RP $4.50, $5.50 FF

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

9.Regal Ruby  looked good leading all the way in her trial with a nice action for a slow to heavy track. From the Robbie patterson stable who knows how to get them ready to win on debut. Backed in early  from $3.80 to $3.40FF

Dangers:

7.Acting Out  ran a game second to a nice horse on debut then led and was outfinished in a much harder 3yo field last start. Back to a weaker maiden third up from the Marsh stable makes her the main danger.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

6.Meila Rei  has rated FR98 at her last three starts and just needs a nice track into it as she is likely to get back and with the solid tempo likely, and if the inside is off, could just land a win this time. RP $4

Dangers:

8.Cruz Ramirez  was going to possibly win it if she had not been checked and lost the pilot in the straight. Game second fresh up. Ready to win.

7.Shanghai Express won well in maiden company but beat a weak field and was in the slowest of the 4 x 1200m races. Drawn well with 3kgs off but will find these harder to beat.

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

5.Day Light  ran a game second on debut to Wee Dram ( 3rd up and was fitter)  who ran well up in class and it was a good speed rating. Drawn to get a nice run and should be harder to beat now being fitter. RP $4

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

2.Mitchell looked good in his latest trial win jumping well, dropping his head and relaxing well in the lead and quickened up nicely when asked. Went to the line with plenty in the tank. Nice galloper and can win this with queries over the other two favoured runners.. RP $5, $7 FF

Dangers:

13.Jolene  got back in her trial and ran home strongly to win in a bunched finish- she was a bit green and likely to be among others so hard to take the $2.50 FF Ridiculous how this was backed into $1.70 after just an ok trial win – go back and look at that trial and see how you couldn’t back it at odds on on that run.

12.Power To The Kitty  ran second at New Plymouth but it was a slow speed rating so happy to pass on her.

Race 8

Confidence:1/5 in an open race

3.Beyond The Fort  class mare always capable of winning fresh up over 1400m. Wide draw could be a bonus by this time of day.

2.Torre Del Greco almost pulled off a good upset last start beating many of these. Gets 3kgs off again and fitter now.

6.Spring Tide 1st $3.60  fought hard for third last start and gets in on a nice weight again.

1.Rosewood gets 3kgs off and has got to be a chance with her race fitness edge now.

5.Rock Island Line drops back in class on the same weight and drawn to get a good run.

 

Race 9

Confidence: 3/5

2.No Compromise 2nd $1.80  strong closing second in second fastest L600 35.33  of the race in a good speed rating. The time was similar to the R65 race and his L600 was very good in that context. Drawn out and likely to get behind midfield with cover but with 3kgs off and the inside likely to be off as well, this nice looking strong galloper looks set to win third up. RP $2.80, $3.70 FF

Dangers:

9.Letterup  ran home strongly on debut for second in the second fastest L600m and looks like a nice mare.

1.Mauna Loa  solid 2nd last start but in the slowest of the 5 x 1650m races so beatable.

6.Manhattan Affair strong second last start and peaking now.

Race 10

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race where the higher weighted runners are all fresh and likely to need it.

6.William Wallace 1st $5  ran a strong second here two starts back behind Dolcetto. Then at Riccarton got back off a moderate tempo and got a bit keen and was doing his best late. Better tempo here will suit.

10.Vent big jump in class but with 2kgs off, this up and comer could do it.

13.Waisake  will get back but if they go hard enough, he can do it with a light weight.

11.Run Like Boo  upset fresh up but he has come back looking stronger and more professional. gets 4kgs off and if the inside is ok could go back to back.

15.Ruby Negroni  ran on strongly late second up over 1300m. Fitter and 1600m ideal. Ran 3rd to Travelling Light and Harlech last campaign!

Race 11

Confidence: 2/5

3.Botti  has been looking for a middle distance after a strong 4th two starts back.

10.Uareastar impressive winner on debut and looks like he can win more

8.Locharburn good win over hurdles last start and has good flat ability. Very fit for this.

4.One of The best  game second last start in good SR. Peaking now.

About Neil Davis

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Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!