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Saturday 12 September 2020 below

A poor day. Farnan went out too hard in 34.21 but wouldn’t have won either way. My Callisto was being niggle at a long way out and the way he crabbed down the straight from the head on, indicates he may have an issue.

Update 11.35 a.m.

No head to heads. Suggested Rosehill late quaddie for $28.80 for 10%

R6   1
R7    1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 10
R8    1, 3, 5, 8, 11, 16
R9    1, 5, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 16

Good morning,

A quiet day in NZ for racing but very good in Sydney. I’ll post an update by 1 p.m. with any other bets.

Bet of the day Sydney race 6 1.Farnan $2.40 Friday now $2.00 Ff

Value bet of the Day Ellerslie Race 5 2.My Callisto $4.80 Quality bet 3.2 units at $4.80 Ff

I’ve never heard the The GOAT bleat on about a sports bet so much. Taranaki were $1.87 when he mentioned them on Heads Up yesterday and now into $1.66 with a much stronger team in his opinion. Playing 2.05 p.m. Sunday

Pedro, who won the $20 Heads Up multi has Farnan and the Warrios to win to return $110- good luck.

Suggested late quaddie at Ellerslie $52 for 10%  ( $50k Guaranteed )

R5   2
R6   5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 13
R7   3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10
R8   1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 11, 12, 13, 14

Suggested late quaddie at Riccarton $25.20 for 10%

R5    1, 3, 4
R6    4, 7
R7    2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 12
R8    1, 2, 3, 5, 9, 12

Update 5 p.m. Friday Next update by 9 a.m. Saturday.

 One Quality bet Ellerslie Race 5 2.My Callisto $4.80 FF 3.2 units at $4.80 FF

 

Rosehill Sydney

Race 6 5.15 p.m.

Confidence: 3/5

1.Farnan  is a top class horse who was a decisive Slipper winner. The break has seen him improve even further based on the way he won those trials and Gai has said he will be unbeaten this campaign. I’m right in her camp and fresh up over 1200m he should be able to sit 2nd outer or lead and Bowman knows exactly when to push the turbo and he does look very hard to beat. RP $2.00  $2.40 FF

Ellerslie

Pass on the jumps races.

Race 5

The speed map shows Zabdi and Iffrajinator looking to get on the lead with a few looking to settle in behind. A moderate to even tempo likely.

Confidence: 3/5

2.My Callisto is a promising horse peaking in the right race. Last start he got back and worked into it wide on the turn and closed off hard in the best L600m by far 39.61 in the field. He has always looked like he would excel over a middle distance and from the handy draw, Andrew Calder, who knows him very well, should be able to position him around 6th outer and get every chance to win now. RP $3.00, $4.80 FF

Race 6

The speed map shows plenty of early speed and likely to set up for a closer.

5.Justacanta has run two strong races after a break. Fresh up loomed up 200m out after covering extra ground and just blew out late. Second up got back after a slow start and Shoshone got a fairly soft time up front with Red Choix so he did very well to beat Shoshone home. There is a 4.5kgs swing against Shoshone but there should be a stronger tempo in this which will favour him more than that weight difference over 1200m. Danielle Johnson will give him every chance. RP $5.50, $8.50 FF

Dangers:

8.Gorgeous Geisha  has been freshened up and goes best that way. Won very well last start and with 3kgs off and a good ride, is the main danger.

9.Shoshone  gets in better at the weights back in class and tries hard.

4.Red Choix fitter third up and with a good run from the wide draw, could do it.

Race 7

The speed map show Battle Time and Speechmaker going forward with few hunting up on their inside. an even tempo likely.

Confidence:2/5

9.Sweet Clementine  has come in very strong form and is relishing her racing. She was a decisive winner at tauranga beating Nasha Riva and Battle Time. Drawn out but if the inside is off, which it could be with all the jumps racing over it earlier, if she can get cover, her race fitness edge over most of these could prove the difference. RP $7, $12 FF

Dangers:

10.Nasha Riva  looked in need of the run fresh up and has trained on well. Won second up last campaign over 1400m.

3.Two Illicit  should be in for a good 4yo season but fresh up with 59kgs on a slow track is a big ask to win, so the $3 is too short.

Race 8 

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race

1.Tiptronic won here second up over 1400m and nice fresh up 6th- gets 2kgs off. RP $5

4.Obsessive  is a good horse when right. Tough run wide on the pace last start. Can upset if right.

11.Penelope Cruise  won strongly last start- this is harder but 54kgs helps.

6.Yatima  didn’t like the heavy track fresh up and will like the improved conditions. Possess a fast sprint and wide draw could be a plus with a light weight.

 

Ricccarton 

 

Race 2

Confidence: 1/5

8.Russian Fable  racing strongly without winning – just needs a good run to win this time. RP $4.50, $5

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

10.Golden Harvest won really well here last start in R65 grade. Big jump in class but the time was good and he gets in on 54kgs ( rider weighs 54kgs so can’t claim the 2kgs. maps to get a good run if the inside is ok. RP $5.50, $6.50 FF

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

4.Markus Aurelius is a big striding horse who did as expected on the tight Taupo track as he looked in need of the run as well. This track and up to 1400m suits and with an even tempo at least very likely, he can unwind late to win. RP $2.50, $2.90 Ff

Race 5

Confidence: 1/5

4.Five Princes  won strongly last start and gets in on a good weight again so can go back to back. RP $4.50, $5 FF

Dangers:

1.Major Tom  was left a sitting duck last start and was a close up third.

3.Diorissimo will be fitter third up and well weighted.

5.Forged if the inside is ok, could upset from the inside draw.

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

4.Frankie The Fox  won well here fresh up over 1400m on a heavy track. Fair run last start. 1600m is ideal on a slow to heavy track with a light weight. RP $5.50, $8 FF

Dangers:

7.Bronte Beach really sprinted fast late to win last start. She is back to her best now and with the light weight up again, can produce that same finish and be very hard to keep out. negative is a slow track- best form on Dead or better.

6.Zentessa  is a  good mare capable of beating a field like this if close to her best.

Race 7

6.Nellie Bly  would have won if the rider wasn’t so intent on holding in another horse. Rider will be looking to make amends here.

3.El bee Darci  is racing well without a lot of luck. Drawn to do no work.

12.Our Girl Gilly  very nice galloper who won well in a good speed rating last start. Gets 4kgs off to help negate the class ride.

9.Aotea Lad  will be fitter for this and is a good horse.

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

3.The Buffer  strong third last start and if inside is off, can swoop home the best.

2.Monkey Shoulder  should be peaking now and 1800m suits.

9.Queen Jetsun  no joy wide last start. With a better run will be right in this.

5.Itsonlymoney  good third here last start and very fit.

12.Donnatina  up to 1800m suits as a does a wetter track.

About Neil Davis

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Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!