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Saturday 19 September 2020 below

Good morning,

An excellent day of racing with some of our best horses going round. Avantage does look an obvious winner as she should get the right run. I’ll be on Supera for a place though and a  little for a win, just in case! Babylon Berlin looks very promising and gets the right draw to win.

Spiderman is ready to win and just needs a good ride from hazel to win the last. Pierina  is ready to win fresh up and gets the decent tempo up front to get through late. The Irishman is an impressive looking galloper who could improve lengths off his debut win on a better surface. And if the day turns to custard, Catalyst in the Shorts at 5.55 p.m. is definitely worth an eachway bet. He’s $7 FF but he could drift in price as the Ozzies will talk up a few of theirs.

No Quality bets today- not enough value in the strong confidence selections. No update today.

Leon, who the $20 multi bet on Heads Up, has gone for Avantage into Spiderman for $259 return

Good luck,

Neil

Bet of the Day Hastings Race 8 7.Babylon Berlin $3.20 Ff 3rd 

Value bet of the day Hastings Race 11 1.Spiderman $7 FF

Speed map Special Randwick Race 7 2.Catalyst $7 but should pay more nearer to start time. lame

Sneaky of the day Hastings Race 10 10.Supera $17 and $4 2nd $4

 

Heads Up below with a preview of the Tarzino and much more

Thursday 12.30 p.m.

Track report for Hastings from Brendan, our expert Track Walker who knows the track very well. His report reads:

“It’s like concrete. I had trouble getting my umbrella in, in parts. Luckily there is 5-12mm forecast for Friday morning and that will bring it bad into the Dead range probably. No obvious bias in that fresh 7.5m of ground which has been cut short.”

Hastings 

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

6.Waisake 1st $5 Tri $132

After being midfield, he got closer 500m out but hit a flat spot 400m out. Once he got into the final straight he found the line strongly in the second fastest last 200m in 13.27. More ground obviously is going to suit better back in an R65 middle distance race. Should get every chance from the draw. RP $5, $6.50 Ff

Dangers:

16.Gallardo 3rd $3.10 last start she just blew the start and got well back after a 100 metres but used gas to get 4 back inner. So to get home for third in the second fastest L600m of the race means she just needs to get her act together at the start to be right in this as 2000m looks ideal now.

5.Ripdord 2nd $1.90 has shown the ability to win more races. Just needs a decent tempo and has 3kgs off.

10.Trosette  looked good winning last start. More ground will suit.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

7.Swords Drawn is a good horse with a strong final sprint. Almost won fresh here last year then bolted in second up. With a fast tempo very likely here, Danielle can settle off the pace and charge through them late. RP $4, $4.40 FF

Dangers:

17.Top Brass nice horse who is set to win fresh up again. Trialed well.

1.Times Ticking  is a good horse and won well last start. Gets 3kgs off.

4.Ferrindi  in top form and with a good run, should be in this.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

1.Makzabeel 3rd tri $25   won well last start and bred to be handy. Drawn well with leith Innes up who will give him every chance. RP $4, $4.60 FF

Dangers:

11.Vamos Bebe 1st $2.80  looked good winning last start but drawn wide and looks like 1400m would suit better now.

1.Ranger 2nd $1.60  bolted in against a weaker field last start. Drawn to get all favours.

4.Viking won well here fresh up and wasn’t so happy in the heavy stuff second up.

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

4.The Irishman looked very good winning his trial at Ellerslie then on debut was backed into very short odds. Trainer, Tony Pike, mentioned that he was concerned about how he would handle the ground and that was just about his undoing as he only got up in the last stride. But he is an impressive looking galloper who will obviously be better suited by the better going today. Drawn out but Leith Innes knows him well now so will get him into the right spot. RP $2.50

Dangers:

11.Autobahn  ran a strong 3rd last start in a better field. Drawn wide but has the early speed to get handy.

12.Alchemia  strong 3rd on debut and has 3 from 3 at the trials around that. Drawn to get a good run.

5.Yourpoint  ran on ok fresh up. Improver out of that and drawn well.

Race 7

The speed map shows plenty of early speed and at least an even tempo and maybe faster so sets up for a closer.

Confidence: 2/5

8.Pierina  is a very good mare who raced in good company last campaign and rated strongly. I was really impressed with the way she won at Ellerslie last November when unleashing a powerful late last dash to get up over 1400m in very fast closing sectionals. She trialed very well at Te Teko when off the lead and came home looking full of running and with an ideal stretch. She is set to fire fresh up and from the draw will settle back off the decent tempo, but if she finds the gaps, which she should find with the good tempo, she is a solid eachway chance from the Marsh stable. RP $5.50, $9.50 Ff

Dangers:

10.Romatic Lady is ready to win now third up. Needs a bit of luck from the wider draw though with good speed around her.

6.Burgundy belle  won impressively here fresh up last year. This is a tougher field though.

1.Vigor Winner  is a very good horse and from the good draw can’t be discounted even giving weight away.

Race 8

Confidence: 3/5

7.Babylon Berlin  looked very good winning her three trials and did what was expected on debut when she bounced to the lead, dropped her head nicely and won comfortably, even though she was not comfortable on the heavy ground. So the better track will definitely allow her to stretch out much more confidently. Her breeding says she will win a few races and she has been very well educated. So the step up to a Group 3 race at just her second start is justified. Drawn to get every chance and be very hard to beat. RP $3, $3.40 in from $3.90 Ff

Dangers:

1.Taroni closed off strongly in a bit of a sprint home fresh up but ran the fastest 800, 600,and 400 of the race and second equal fastest L200m. She will definitely improve a great deal off that and with a better tempo and with her proven form against better horses, she has to be the main danger.

8.Miss Aotearoa  1st $6.40  won very well fresh up and trained on very well since. Wide draw no help but is a nice filly.

2.De La Terre racing really well against good horses. Just needs luck from the draw to be in it.

Race 9

Confidence: 2/5

5.Sherrif is a good horse and needed that fresh run and a better track. Fitter now and with a decent tempo likely, Leith Inness should be able to time his run for a winning one. RP $3.50, $3.80 FF

Dangers:

7.Savy Yong Blonk 1st $3  bit unlucky last start. Fitter now and should be able to get a good run.

8.Polzeath  ran an improver’s race fresh up and is an upsetter if he can lead.

1.Beauden drawn to get a good run and is a very capable horse but with a decent weight to lump.

Race 10

The speed map shows Deerfield, The Mitigator and Callsign Mav looking to lead with a few looking to get in behind those. An even tempo very likely suiting all runners.

Confidence:3/5

8.Avantage 3rd was a class above them at Te Rapa in the Foxbridege. She sweated up a bit before the start as she was a bit fresh so she has to improve off that, so I can’t see anything improving enough to beat her out of the Foxbridge. 1400m will suit even better plus she has got the ideal draw to land about 5th outer behind an even tempo and get the right run to move into it at the right time and prove very hard to beat again. The negative is she only worked averagely on Tuesday but she wouldn’t be starting unless she was 100%  RP $1.80, $1.85

Dangers:

10.Supera 2nd $3.60  does go very well fresh. She has won two out of her last three fresh up runs and was a close second in the other at Ellerslie carrying 60kgs. She has looked good in her last two trials and from the inside draw maps to land 4 back inner behind the even tempo. From there, she has run some excellent closing sectionals in her career, so with the gaps at the right time, she can charge at these late.

13.Jennifer Eccles  has shown she is capable of running some top class closing sectionals over nearly all distances. She should be even stronger this time round and has trialed well. Drawn to land 3 back inner and has to be a chance from there.

15.Bavella  did very well to win fresh up after drawing wide and working to get handy 3w open. Then she showed a really good turn of foo to put a winning break on them then hold on to win. The time was only 2 lengths slower than Avantage’s and she had a much better run. So from the good draw and up to 1400m should suit where she maps to get out and trail.

Race 11

Confidence: 2/5

1.Spiderman last start at Whangaui after getting back early, he was forced to come wide on the turn, while the smart winner Raced Evens was putting a winning break on them. But to get up for second he had to run the fastest 600m 37.92, 400m 25.54 and 200m 13.09 all day to do it! That was second up and his best form is on better surfaces. Craig Ivil has done a terrific patient job with him and he looks well placed here with 3kgs off. RP $5, $7.50 FF

Dangers:

2.Hooter  looked good winning on debut. Nice galloper but may get caught on the fence and with a lack of race experience, will need the lucky gaps at the right time.

13.Play The Field  her last 200m of 13.05 was the fastest of the race after she got checked on the turn and balanced up 250 metres out. Ready to peak fourth up now and even though she is seven, she can get into this with a light weight.

12.Cinzento 2nd $4  is a capable mare and was just beaten by Germanicus here last year.

Ruakaka

Race 4

2.The Good Fight 2nd  has had two runs back now and looks nicely placed here third up. Rates on top in the Formpro Ratings and strikes an average field. RP $3.20, $3.80 FF

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

9.Yamuna has just gone down in her last two starts rating strongly. She will get back but with an even tempo likely, should get her chance to get over these late this time. RP $4.00 , $5.50 FF

Race 7

Confidence:2/5

2.Pop Star Princess won well fresh up at Taupo then set an even pace in the Foxbridge Plate and did well to hold on for fifth behind better horses than these. Right at her peak now third, should be able to ping and lead and I can’t see Donna taking her on, so may get a softish lead and be hard to run down with her race fitness edge. RP $3, $4 FF

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

8.Boogie Easy fresh up last start, fought on gamely for second in the second fastest L600 in 39.93. Considering her three wins have come on Good and Dead tracks over 1400m, it does indicate her determination to do her best and on a better surface. She has won her three races here. Drawn to get every chance with Trudy, who knows her well. Maps to lead RP $5.50, $8 FF

 

About Neil Davis

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Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!