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Wednesday 23 September preview below

Matamata

Firstly apologies for the late post.

Nice to see the track has come back to a Dead 5 and with just an isolated shower forecast, it should be around a 1.11 for 1200m track. Many horses that have been racing on Slow to heavy tracks will find they can’t keep up. And with the rail out 12 metres, that usually means it is hard to win from the back.

Entriviere  1st $1.80 on debut from the Te Akau stable, looks set to win on debut.  Lavaglo 1st $2.50  ( Race 8 ) also looks set to win third up. Race 4 is the interesting race for me. Rocket Spade   did look good in his trail win but is likely to get back and if he does go forward, can get caught wide, so I’m happy to take the eachway odds on Il Affare, who looked good fresh up and gets 4kgs off Rocket, to maybe beat him him home.

Bet of the day Race 6 10.Entriviere $2.20 Ff 1st $1.80

Value bet of the day Race 4 9.Il Affare $7.50 FF

Speed map Special Race 8  6.lavagloo $3.10 FF 1st $2.50 

Sneaky of the day Race 1 11.Isola Scara $8.50 FF

Suggested late quaddie for $19.20 for 10%

R7    2, 5, 8, 9
R8    4, 6, 7, 11
R9    1, 2, 7, 8
R10    1, 7, 11

Race 1

I did like Keeping Lucky but she has a real heavy track action. Even the favourite Bouffant has her best form on a wetter track and is a bit one paced and is a 6yo mare at $3, so pass on her too. So it leaves room for an upset.

11.Isola Sacra in her last trial ran on late and wide for third on a wet track. Then on debut drew wide and snagged back and closed of strongly late running the third fastest L200 over the 1400m with a nice action for a better track. Sam Spratt sticks with her from the Marsh stable and is a nice eachway chance up to 1600m on a dead track. RP $6, $8.50 FF

 

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

1.Tarwyn ran a very good 4th fresh up when he had the toughest run in the race and stuck gamely for fourth. There have been 6 winners out of that race. Then second up here, got out about 5 strides too late to have a decent go at the lighter weighted El Nymph but found the line well for second in the second best L200 behind the winner. So they must have decided to be competitive you have to claim 3kgs so they have with very good apprentice Sam O’Malley. Drawn to get an ideal run and his action says a Dead track is ideal. RP $3.00

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

2.Timberlake  looked goo drawing away late to win here on a H10 track over 1400m. His time and closing sectionals compared strongly with the R71 winner the same day, Amazing Az. From the good draw he should be able to land closer about 6th or 7th and with 2kgs off again, against an average R65v field, be the one to keep out again. RP $3.50, $4 FF

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

9.Il Affare last start at Avondale her last 200m of 12.33 was the fastest of the race in behind a good horse, Vamos Bebe, who won next up at Hastings on Saturday. She was in slightly slower going too. Well bred filly by Dundeel and looks every bit as though 1400m and more will suit her. Draw to get a good run and gets 2kgs off. RP $4, $6.50 Ff

Danger:

5.Rocket Spade  did look good winning his trial drawing away with an impressive action. He has drawn wide and will very likely get back and with the rail out 12m, he may well find it difficult to catch them late.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

1.The Green Dragon  looks ready to go one better from the good draw with Opie up. Closed off nicely fresh up and will prefer a better track. RP $4.50, $6 FF

Race 6

Confidence: 3/5

10.Entriviere  looked very good winning her last trial at Te Teko. Jumped well, then eased and realxed ideally about 6th outer, then without being urged a lot, extended with a very good action to lead and win with a few gears left. Drawn the inside and with Danielle knowing her well after winning on her in both of her trials, she does look very hard to beat. RP $1.80, $2.20 after opening $2.90 Ff

Danger:

9.Grease Lightning

Last start here drew wide and had to snag back but they buttoned off up front running the slowest first 400m of the 4 x 1200m races in 25.24. So to come from last 600m out to get through for second was a top effort. He had to run the fastest L800 48.57, L600 36.24, L400 23.76 and L200 12.24 all day to do it as well. On debut he was unlucky when held up and ran on late for fourth. The breeding suggests he will win at least a couple of races and that run just backs that up. Drawn wide here and likely to snag back again, but a decent tempo likely, he looks a good chance to at least place. RP $7, $12 and $3.80 FF

Race 7

5.Rip Van Gogh  looked good in his trial when he jumped well but was soon restrained but came home full of running. Nicely bred and ready to fire on debut. RP $4.50, $6 FF

Dangers:

8.Charmaine’s Dream  ran a very good 2nd in her trial when bouncing well, 2nd outer and was never asked to let down for a close second. Drawn wide but will go forward and with any sort of run, looks the main danger.

2.Grand Gesture  won a trial here leading all the way and trialed up nicely recently for second on pace again.

9.Cadeau  ran a nice trail for fifth in probably one of the strongest trials for maiden for a while behind Miss Aotearoa and Cornflower Blue, both very impressive winners since. She wasn’t losing ground on them and from the good draw, should get every chance. Opened $15 and into $9.

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

6.Lavaglo  won second up at Riccarton over 1600m in a good speed rating for a maiden. Then two starts later ran a close second here over 1400m. Fresh up here she ran a solid third then last start closed off in strong sectionals foe second in a stronger R65 field. Drawn to land around midfield and she looks set to peak third up. RP $3, $3.20 FF

Dangers:

4.Fleurgundy 

They found something out with him here last start- he is better ridden colder because the way he had to snag back from his wide draw to near last off a good tempo ( first 400m in 23.69 was the fastest by far in the 4 x 1200m races ) means he does look more lethal ridden quieter. He ran the fastest closing sectionals in all areas. Drawn to land about 5th or 6th outer with good early speed from others and get every chance. negative is his best form is on Slow and heavy tracks, but may get away with one today. RP $6, $11 FF

11.Limentis  looked good winning here last start against maidens and should be right in this.

7.Hola Senorita  is getting better with each run. Should get an ideal run on the pace and be hard to run down.

Race 9

1.Uncle Terry  strikes a weak maiden field and has been racing well enough in stronger ones to break through here.

2.Super Sid  didn’t get all favours last start. Fitter and has Opie up to overcome the draw.

8.Summer Night  drawn to get a good run and ran on well on debut.

7.Ces’t La Gris  better run last start and fitter now.

9.Confectionery  has had plenty of education at the trials and Danielle will give her every chance.

Race 10

Confidence: 1/5

1.Can’t Find One ran a very good second on debut and found the line ok here last start over 2000m. Fitter now and drawn to get a good run. RP $4.00

Dangers:

7.Zinzan  ran on well last start ( 3rd fastest L200m) over 1800m and 2000m looks ideal third up with Opie on.

11.Cuba  two good runs on wet tracks. Action says a better track will suit.

 

 

About Neil Davis

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Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!