Home » Results » Saturday 26 September 2020 preview below

Saturday 26 September 2020 preview below

Update noon:

New Plymouth Head to Head  Race 7 Spring Tide $1.95 to beat Conor Oceirin Yes

Multi of the day The Head to head above and Masked Crusader $1.85 $10 returns $36 No masked Crusader was feeling the firm ground according to JMac.

Update 8.40 a.m. Saturday

Good morning,

No Quality bets so far today. The best bet all day looks Masked Crusader in the last at Rosehill. Dragon Queen looks set to win fresh up and drawn to get every chance. The best $20 plus chance is race 7 Iron Eagle at $26. Of all the quaddies today, I’d suggest spending most of your budget for them on the $50k Turbo one where I have a suggested bet.

I did like Cheval Prometteur but she has a classic wet track action and on a Good 3, especially if there are complaints from riders during the day of the track being too firm, is just too much of a risk at $2.10 FF now!

On Heads Up, The GOAT made the Warriors to win H2H and to score 47.5 or more total points for the game $4.60 ‘Same Game Multi’ the best sports bet. Bruce R, who won the $20 multi bet, has that going on Sunday afternoon, even though he is a Manly supporter – he may become a believer after they win on Sunday ūüôā Yes¬†

I’ll post an update by noon with any H2H or other bets.

Early preview of Saturday. Next update by 5 p.m. and by 9 a.m. Saturday.

No Quality bets so far.

Bet of the day Rosehill Race 9 8.Masked Crusader $1.85Ff

Value bet of the day Ellerslie Race 3 12.Dragon Queeen $5 FF  3rd $1.70 

Sneaky of the day Ellerslie race 7 16.Iron Eagle $26 and $5.50 FF 6th after getting every chance

Speed map Special Ellerslie race 5 7.Tears Of Jupiter $3.70 Ff Late scratched

There is a $50k Guaranteed Turbo quaddie in NZ today and I’ve gone through each leg thoroughly. It is the best quaddie to go for today. Suggested bet for $48 for 10% is: ( If you want a cheaper spend, you could anchor 7.Tears Of Jupiter in the third leg. )

R1  2, 4, 6, 11, 12 yes paid  $2400
R2   2, 3, 7, 10
R3   1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 11
R4   4, 8, 9, 10

$8 spend for 10%

R1   2, 4, 6, 11, 12
R2   2, 3, 7, 10
R3    7
R4    4, 8, 9, 10

Rosehill

Race 9

Confidence: 4/5

5.Masked Crusader was very big fresh up on an unsuitable wet track. Then second up drew wide and did even better to¬† run third after being wide with no cover. James knows him better and he’s drawn to get an ideal run in behind probably Prime Candidate and he is going to win more races so third up over a more suitable 1400m looks perfect for him. RP $1.40, $1.85 FF

Ellerslie

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

4.Iffie Shows he really caught the eye closing off hard late for third with a nice stretch on him running the fastest Last 200m 12.14. The step to 1400m suits ideally and Ryan Elliot suits him as well. RP $4, $5 FF

Danger:

7.Sheeza Jakkal  looked much improved from her 2nd to her Tauranga win. Obviously getting better with each start and with Danielle up, looks the main danger.

Race 3

Confidence: 3/5

12.Dragon Queen has the raceday experience against better horses like Taroni and Vernazza. Her closing sectionals showed she had the ability to at least win a maiden. In her recent trial she trailed and finished fourth under a hold. Drawn to get a good run from Tiger and with the 1kg off, she looks well placed to beat these. Co-trainer Pam Gerard said on BGP, The Bottomless Punt, ” Her work has been super after her nice trial. Tiger was very pleased with her trackwork. I expect she will be quite cheeky!” RP $3.60, $5 FF in from $6

Danger:

4.Edit  in his trial got back to fifth of five in running but showed a good turn of foot to get handy 300m out and stretched hard to win well beating Arrivederci who won well on debut, so that looks even better now. Drawn out and will likely go back again, which is not good on debut at Ellerslie in the big open spaces.

5.Global Currency  ran a nice trial but in average time beating unraced horses. Too short at $3 compared to Dragon Queen who has good runs on the board.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5 1st leg of the $50k Turbo Quaddie

No anchors here so go wide

11.Sweet Molly Malone fresh up here sat 3 wide on an even pace and was still too good. The time was even faster than the R87 race and R63 race. Sam Weatherley is riding with terrific judgement and should get her into a good position and be hard to beat. RP $4, $4.20 FF

Dangers:

2.Super Strike 1st $2.50   is a good horse but a draw to get beaten from. Has to be in quaddies.

4.Excaliffraaj won at Te Aroha dn4th was Sprint Tide who has won 3 races since. Drawn to get a good run off a nice trial third and the early money has come for him, $15 into $12

6.Lookseasy ran a game second here over 1200m on a Dead 4 track. Drawn the inside and gets 3kgs off. Maps to get a winning run.

12.Saintly Way  won fresh up last campaign over 1200m then two good runs here over 1200m with strong closing sectionals. If they go hard, could swamp them with 2kgs off.

Other thoughts:

1.Bullybrook  best form on wet tracks. Goes well fresh and gets 3kgs off but they were probably hoping for a Slow or worse track.

3.Bounty  had his chance last start after working to lead but was able to button off mid race then battled for 4th.

10.Preipo ran third fresh up over 1100m when 2nd outer on a heavy track, led on the turn and tired 50m out for third. Went on to win over 1850m. Drawn wide and likely to snag and run on with longer races in mind.

13.Keep It Real  won well fresh up on a heavy track and needs that to be a threat here from a wide draw.

14.Moet Molly  won her maiden in June 2018 on a heavy track. Needs a wet track and drawn wide.

 

Race 5

Confidence: 3/5 Third leg of the Turbo quaddie

Tears Of Jupiter looks a solid chance but fresh up they are always beatable. Five others, with race fitness being an advantage over 1400m, are winning chances if she gets beaten.

7.Tears Of Jupiter looked good last campaign and is going to win more races. She trialed up leading and got run down late without being pushed. But she did look bigger and stronger. From the inside, can lead or trail on a moderate tempo and be hard to beat with 2kgs off. RP $3, $3.70 FF

Dangers:

6.Trouble closed off strongly for third last start in a stronger field. Drawn to settle handy and won his maiden here.

1.Red Inferno on debut drew out and got back and ran on ok in a good speed rating. Second up on a heavy track  he drew wide but was in the better ground and got back but showed a will to win Рhis action says a better track should be ok and he did win his first trial really well on a Dead track. Scratched from the previous race from a better draw, but the 1400m with Opie up makes him a definite include.

11.Sacrosanct last start in a stronger R74 field at Taupo was snagged back and they buttoned off up front and she ran home strongly for third in the best L600 and L400 and just blew out late running the third fastest L200m. So third up looks set to improve off that. She beat the smart Aricina over 1400m at New Plymouth in 1.22.9.

4.Make Time 1st $8 won really well fresh up and didn’t like the heavy track second up. Last start got back from a wide draw and ran home well for 6th in the 3rd fastest L200m of the race. 1400m on a Good track and back right handed all add up to a good run here.

5.Satriani  won on debut when he flew home over 1000m, the also flew late fresh up last campaign over 1200m to Mumms Jewel over 1200m. Nice trial third in a handy field. Gets 3kgs off and looks the best upsetter.

Race 6

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race

3.Deluxe Edition closed off in excellent sectionals here last start and with 3kgs off, could do it.

Dangers:

5.Spring Delight ready to fire fourth up but doesn’t win too often.

2.Beauty Star 1st $10  is ready to start showing some form now.

7.Transformer  won third up over 2100m. Drawn well and gets 3kgs off, so could repeat that pattern.

1.Richard Of Yorke  with 4kgs off comes into it.

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

4.Paisley Park Drew fresh up drew wide wide and had to snag back early with the pace inside him and being fresh up. With 500 metres to go he swung wider and was the widest still at the back on the turn. But the way he unleashed down the straight shows that he has come back just as good as last season. His closing 600m 34.65, 22.89 and 11.92 for his last 200 metres was faster than anything in the Foxbridge Plate and he ran 200m further. He is a very genuine and consistent horse but drawn wide here and a moderate tempo will make it harder. RP $4.50, $5 Ff

Dangers:

16.Iron Eagle  has won twice here and ran two solid 4ths so far this campaign. Better right handed and drawn to get an ideal run with a light weight. Best $20 plus chance all day.

5.Cheval Prometteur  2nd has looked very good this campaign and was never in doubt leading all the way last start at Tauranga. He maps to lead these and with no pressure likely in front again, Sam Spratt can use his natural speed and power to get a winning break on them again and be very hard to run down. The negative is he has a real heavy track action on a Good 3 track so $2.40 is just too short now. RP $4.00 on a Good track now, $2.50 FF

 

Race 8

Very open race. In order: 16-2-4-3-22-5-15

Race 9

Confidence: 1/5 in another open race.

15.Macushla closed off in fast sectionals here last start and if they go hard, could swamp them.

6.Mumms Jewel  has early money and she is very fast. If she can lead, could pinch it.

13.Maison Roxanne  drawn to get all favours.

19.Megeve looked good winning fresh up and drawn ideally with a winning weight.

18.Blood Warrior  is a good horse but seems to find a way to get beaten.

17.Our Alley Cat 1st $7  is certainly capable of winning if she produced her best and Sam Weatherley could just get that out of her.

New Plymouth

Race 1

Confidence: 3/5

1.No Compromise the way he found the line with strong late strides, running the fastest closing sectionals in all categories, means the 1800m here looks ideal now fourth up. Trainer said before his last start that more ground will suit better, and he strikes just an average maiden field. RP $3.20, $4 FF

 

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

5.Smarty Pants  1st $3.70   has been putting in excellent closing sectionals. Last start over 1200m, after getting well back from the wide draw, she got out widest 400m out and motored home late for sixth running the fastest L200 11.68 of the race. So if she can land closer, she has to be very hard to keep out. RP $2.80

Dangers:

10.Power Of Kitty last start set a good pace and was run down late which was a good improvement on her debut run in a slow speed rating. The step to 1400m helped as well. If left alone, will be hard for Smarty to run down.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

7.Magdala 1st $4.50   last start drew wide and after beginning well they kicked up inside her and she eased back to near last then they buttoned off up front. It was an eye-catching run down the outside late and running the fastest L200m in 12.68 backed that up. This time she has drawn to land on the pace and she won very impressively here July 2019 over 1400m in an excellent speed rating. Gets 3kgs off and looks well placed. RP $4, $4.80 FF

Race 5 second leg of the Turbo quaddie

Confidence: 2/5

10.Justaskme even a slow start and getting back in the slower ground, then having to angle wide and balance, could not stop this very good 5yo gelding from winning easily here fresh up. He still ran the second fastest L600 39.66 all day and even though this is harder, Allan Sharrock looks like he has another good one to work through the grades. Gets 3kgs off ( maybe 2kgs with the riders minimum of 52kgs ) and he could go back to back. RP $5, $8.50 Ff

Dangers:

2.Sinarahma has the most potential of these but fresh up on a heavy track is a query- but too good to leave out of quaddies.

3.Ihu looked good winning both his last two races in very good speed ratings. Big weight jump to 60kgs and drawn out so no anchor.

7.Diogenes 1st $7   has Samantha Collet on now replacing the apprentices. Should get the right run.

Race 6 Fourth leg of Turbo Quaddie

Confidence: 1/5

4.Cooga Moon two very good runs recently and with 2kgs, has to be right in this.

9.Total Sass  is a nice horse with a good finish if timed right.

8.Meila Rei 1st $5  bit unlucky last start ( ran fastest L200) after two strong seconds. If inside is off, can win.

10.A Little Vague  is ready to peak third up and drawn to get a good run maybe leading and with a soft one, could upset.

Race 7

The speed map shows early speed from a few and an even tempo likely.

Confidence: 3/5

4.Demonetization ran a career best FR of 112last start when 4th in the Foxbridge Plate over 1200m which really was too short for him. This is a drop back in class for him and the step to 1400m on a heavy track is ideal for him. The map says he should land around midfield behind a decent tempo and the centre of the track is the place to be by this time of day. RP $2.50, $2.80 FF

Dangers:

14.Spring Tide  won very easily last start and was travelling like the winner well out. Should land 2nd outer or even lead and if there is an on-pace bias, be hard to run down.

16.Sweet Clementine  ran on well last start and if the inside is off can be right in this.

15.Cono O’Ceirin¬† has won his last three but this is by far his biggest test over a truly run 1400m, so no value at $6

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

5.Aigne is very fit coming off a hurdle win. He won the Road to the Jericho here last year and gets 3kgs off. RP $3.00, $2.20

Dangers:

8.The Poormanzabeel  is likely to lead and if the inside is ok, could steal it.

9.Junior  showed strong staying ability winning last start. Gets 2kgs off.

7.Hi I’m Nikkita¬† is a tough mare suited to two miles.

Race 9

Confidence: 2/5

10.Nogolf Etikit  was impressive winning easily over 2100m last start. He races like an out and out stayer so the 3210m will suit. RP $4.50, $5.50 FF

Dangers:

13.Van Blanc  has ability on the flat and after two strong jumps placings, will be ready to win.

6.Dr Hank  game third last start for third. Two miles will suit.

7.Game Percy  tough jumping stayer with flat ability.

Race 10

Confidence: 2/5

4.William Wallace  was the winner well out last start. 1800m suits and if swoopers are winning, can win again. RP $5

Dangers:

16.Penelope Cruise  back here is much better suited on a heavy track.

5.Colinstreet  with 3kgs off has to be a chance.

13.Vladavar  good win two back. Forgive last run.

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!