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Wednesday preview below

Update 10.42 a.m. No further bets recommended.

Tauranga

The track has come up a Slow 7 but we could see an upgrade with a fine day forecast. The track should play fairly for the first five races at least. I’ll post an update by 11 a.m. with any other bets.

I know many of us were on Masked Crusader on Saturday and he just didn’t fire- he just went pop. James McDonald said he was feeling the ground if it any consolation which it is not!

Tricky day today and the late quaddie looks the best bet. Targhee $16 2nd with a good ride ( Race 3 ) and Penteverest 2nd after just doing a tad too much work early to lead Race 10 $11 look the best double figure bets all day.

Bet of the day Race 6 10.Atlanta Georgia $4 FF

Value bet of the day Race 3 9.Targhee $16 FF

Suggested late quaddie for $36 for 10%  ( $18 for 5%)

R7   2, 3, 4, 7
R8   4, 5, 7
R9   1, 2, 5, 9, 11, 12
R10   4, 5, 13, 14, 16

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

2.Super Pursuit 1st $2.20  ran two very good races last year and has won three trials since. Just needs a decent run from the draw to win it. RP $3.0, $3.20 FF

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

1.Matterhorn 1st $1.80   on debut probably should have won as he was knocked around between two runners over the last 200m metres and couldn’t get balanced properly. The third horse, Makzabeel, has since won well. Opie jumps on and he has the early pace to get into a good position and be the one to beat. RP $3.40, $3.80 FF

Danger:

6.Its So Easy  ran some good placings last campaign and looked ready to fire fresh up after her strong trial win recently.

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

9.Targhee 2nd $3.60  last campaign second up at Ellerslie did very well when running a close 4th behind taroni and Bordeaux Le Rouge. She was a bit unlucky too as the third horse kept running wider down the straight taking her out with her. She ran the fastest L800, 600 and 400 and would have run the fastest L200 if not hampered with. She trialed up very well left handed and hung. Then fresh up at Matamata, she began well, snagged back and came wide, but wanted to lay in and lost her balance a bit. She didn’t seem happy in the slow to heavy ground either. She just needs a good ride from Craig Grylls to give her cover and back right handed, with the ability she has shown, she has to be right in this, RP $7, $17 Ff in from $26 FF

Dangers:

7.Perfectionist ran a good second fresh up and the winner almost won next up at Ellerslie last Saturday.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

20.Waimoku Falls 1st $2.60   looked good winning his trial when extending very nicely to down Grand Gesture who won on debut last week. Drawn to get a good run and is nicely bred. RP $3.50, $4

Dangers:

3.Celebre looked good winning his trial and is ready to fire on debut. Still a bit green though so gave the nod to Waimoku Falls from the better draw.

Race 5

Confidence:1/5

5.Playing The Fool did very well on debut getting back and running home late for fifth in a handy maiden field running the fastest L600 and L200. 1600m will suit. RP $4.50, $5

Dangers:

1.Woodwind  solid second last start and back to 1600m suits from a good draw.

10.Lady Gwendolyn fresh up at Matamata after being 10th midrace she got shuffled out the back by the turn, but it was an eye catcher late after working clear and ran the fastest L200 of the race. 1600m second up will suit. May just need this one though with a view to getting her set for a middle distance maiden.

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

10.Atlanta Georgia last start at Te Rapa, she got back in a fast run race and worked home strongly along the rail for third in the fastest L200m of the race. Should be fitter third up and ready to strike now in a slightly weaker R65 race. She has run her best races here and drawn to land behind midfield with cover and if the inside is off, should be in the right place to get over these with a nice weight advantage. RP $3.60, $4 FF

 

Race 7

The speed map shows a lack of early on speed runner so a dew riders may elect to hunt up early to take advantage of that. It also depends on how the track is playing as well. If the inside is off, some will be content to sit off the pace as long as they are off the fence.

2.Hit The Road Jack last start got back on the rail and once out and balanced up found the line hard in the 3rd fastest L200m of the race. Fitter now. On debut he drew 3 over 1400m and jumped evenly and ended up trailing, so he could make full use of that good draw with Chad Ormsby up now. She is out of 10 win mare Ististar. RP $4.50, $6.50 FF

Dangers in order:

7.Miss Primitivo last start at Hawera, the way she found the line with strong late strides, running the fastest closing sectionals in all categories, means she is ready to win. The query is she will get back and need to get going early. She gets 2kgs off from Ashvin.

3.Gone West in a recent trial got back and unwound well late to get up. Good 5th at Taupo last campaign closing hard late. Has Opie up.

4.Two Madison 1st $2.20 showed nice improvement to run a close third last start in the best L600, L400 and L200m. She looks like she needs a middle distance but with a freshener, should be in it and has shown early speed before.

Other thoughts:

1.Peerless Warrior has had plenty of chances just doing enough to keep you interested.

13.Clique has the blinkers go on from the Marsh stable. Weak 4th though at Avondale and hard to see her improving enough to win this.

Race 8

The speed map shows five runners looking to lead or be on it ensuring an even tempo.

 

4.Naval Fleet ran a solid third fresh up after working hard early to get 2nd outer and just didn’t have the match fitness to hold out the first two. Rated strongly last campaign and rates on top here after weight adjustments.Sam Collett replaces the apprentice and she maps to get handy without doing too much work this time. The 1300m suits ideally. RP $3.20, $3.30 FF

Dangers in order:

5.Zouluminous looked good last campaign when bolting in over 1600m at Whanganui. Jamie Richards has given her two trials and based on her last one where she was on the pace and led easily 300m out and wasn’t pushed to just get run down, shows she is ready to fire fresh up.

7.Ocean Belle 1st $5 looked good beating subsequent two time winner Vamos Bebe at Taupo. A slow start cost her next up and may have been a bit flat. With a good beginning and if the inside is off, could easily bounce back.

 

Race 9

The speed map shows an even tempo likely.

9.Reiko is a good galloper. He looked very good winning on debut winning at Avondale. Then closed off hard late for third second up. Truialed up strongly recently for 2nd when midfield and wide and kept up a sustained gallop to run second. RP $3, $2.80 FF

Dangers:

5.Victory Glory 1st $5   is a nice galloper and ran a top 4th in a harder race at Ellerslie last campaign. Good trial 2nd and from the draw with 2kgs, can win.

12.Kiwiana good 3rd fresh up last campaign and is a staying type mare but on the fresh side  she is capable of a fast closing sectional and the way she trialed up for a close 4th, means she could do it.

11.Imaready won her maiden here in a good speed rating over 1200m. Game 3rd fresh up in a fast speed rating. Flat second up and may be better right handed.

1.Saint Croix ran a strong second two starts back and with 2kgs off from a good draw, could do it.

2.Military Step was only average at his recent trial when 4th and urged. Drawn out so needs the inside to be well off.

Race 10

4.Penteverest 2nd $2.80  $actually rates equally on top here ( with Reflection)  in the Formpro Ratings. That is based on his close third to Swords Drawn in an R72 race and 2.7L 8th in an $80k Dunstan Feeds final at Ellerslie. Last start second up at Te Rapa, he was back and looked to be going well but had to check off heels 200m but came home well late running the second fastest L200m of the race. He’s strong 5yo by Pentire so 2100m is going to suit well. Chad Ormsby knows him better now and with a good ride from the wide barrier, could upset these. Maps to go forward with not a lot of speed under him. RP $6, $11

Dangers:

13.Midnite Invasion good fifth last start in a stronger R65 field. 2100m suits now.

15.Reflection fair fifth last start in a  stronger R65 2100m. Peaking now.

16.Kaipaki Road showed real promise last year but hasn’t really gone on with it. Strikes a weak field here and with a 10/10 ride from Danielle, could get back to that good form.

5.Prestigious Lad  was probably looking for more ground last start. Nice staying runs beofre then so 2100m with the Blinkers off and in-form Jonathan Riddell jumping on means he can win.

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!