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Saturday 3 October preview below

Update 11.15 a.m.

Head to heads Hastings race 9 Two Illicit $1.70 to beat Jennifer Eccles

Suggested NZ Multi of the day

Swisswatch to win $2.60, The H2h above, Festivity to win $1.55, and Need I say More to win $116.40 for $10

Suggested Australian Multi of the day

Rand R6 Classic Legend $3, R8 Mugatoo $2.80 and R9 Athiri $2.50 $210 for $10

 

Suggested Flemington Quaddie: $39.60 for 10%

R6   2, 5, 12
R7    3, 12
R8    1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 10
R9    2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 11, 12, 13, 14, 19

 

Update 10.30: next update by noon

We do the sectionals for the Cambridge Harness meetings and there are a couple racing there later today worth a dollar.

Race 4 5.55 p.m.

Confidence: 3/5

6. The Peacemaker last start finally got the right draw to use her gate speed and lead. She set a good tempo with a lead time of 41.7 and set decent sectionals from there only to be run down by the one sitting on her back. Will be fitter for this third up and rated better can lead all the way this time. RP $3.20, $4 FF

Race 5 6.20 p.m. 

Confidence: 3/5

3.The Banker did very well after getting back, improved 3 wide from the 1600 to get parked when they were running along in front, and showed courage to hold second in a fast race time of 2.41.0. Nicely drawn this time to get an ideal run and be hard to beat. RP $2.40, $2.70

Race 7 7.15 p.m.

Confidence: 2/5

4.Captain Max last start here did well after using gas to get into the 1 x1 early, was held up until into the final straight but found the line will petrol in the tank in the 2nd fastest L400 27.65. Drawn to get a good run and is a nice eachway chance. RP $6, $10 and $3.10 FF

Update 8.45 a.m.

A beautiful day has dawned in Hastings and the Dead 4 track should get back to a Good one by race time. Brendan, our Track Walker, said it is likely to play evenly.

Today we have a few 3/5 confidence selections but not a lot of value in them so no Quality bets so far. I’ll post an update by noon with any Head to Heads or other bets, including the Flemington Quaddie, which looks the best one to take today.

Bet of the day Hastings Race 7 1.Need I Say More $1.70 FF

Value bet of the day Hastings Race 9 12.Two Illicit $6 Ff

Speed map Special Hastings Race 4 3.Swisswatch $2.60 Ff

Sneaky of the day Hastings Race 2 4.Alpha Charlie $8 FF

The GOAT’s best bet is the Canberra Raiders -13.5 $1.90 ( 8.40 p.m. Saturday night )

Kev P who won the Heads Up multi has Canberra -13.5 ( $1.90, with Need I Say More $1.70 and Cornflower Blue $1.90 = $20 returns $123

Next update by 9 a.m. Saturday. ( No Quality bets so far. Even though there are a few 3/5 confidence selections, there isn’t enough value in them and the Quality bets need to have decent value in them long term. )

The best quaddie to have a go at tomorrow is at Flemington which will pay at least $2,000 with the bigger fields with no hot favourites and beatable favourites. I’ll post the recommended bet by noon Saturday.

Brendan, our Track Walker for Hastings told us the track should come back to a Good one by raceday and play fairly with the rail being True again.

No Quality bets so far.

Randwick

Race 6

Confidence: 3/5

2.Classic Legend put in an amazing sprint to win fresh up making top horses look average. He has improved since then and maps to get a good run about 4th or 5th outer behind an even tempo set by Nature Strip. I’m not convinced nature Strip is back to his best so he will be vulnerable late to powerful fast finisher like Classic Legend. RP $2.50, $3.00 FF

Race 8

Confidence: 3/5

2.Mugatoo  is a very good horse and once he gets into his big stride, it take a very, very good horse to hold him out. And I can’t see that horse in this. Maps to get a good run around midfield and this track with the uphill in the front straight, will turn it into a true staying test and he looks the very hard to beat. RP $2.40, $2.70 Ff

Race 9

Confidence: 3/5

6.Athiri was very impressive winning last start in fast time. She travelled like the winner well out and bolted in. Drawn to get the perfect run and from the Cummings stable will be even better this time. RP $2.50, $3.10 Ff

Flemington

Race 4

Confidence: 3/5

4.Tofane is a very good mare who is a definite improve off her third here behind Zoutori. She goes best second up and goes well down the chute here. Should get a top run from Olly and watch for him to get her settled early then time her powerful burst till the last 100 metres. RP{ $2.60, $2.80 FF

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5 Spring Sling race where you get $5 back in Bonus bets for every horse your horse beats home.

3.Surprise Baby is a very good horse who ran a top second fresh up. Craig Williams said he is very confident he has improved off that and from the inside draw, should do nothing in running and just needs the gaps at the right time to beat these. 2 from 2 second up. RP $4, $5 FF

 

Hastings

Race 1

Confidence: 3/5

11.Gallardo last start here ran a strong third in good time with the second best L200 11.65 and just blew out late. That was her first run over ground so can be expected to to improve strongly off that. The start before on Sep 9 at Matamata I noted: she just blew the start and got well back after a 100 metres but used gas to get 4 back inner. So to get home for third in the second fastest L600m of the race means she just needs to get her act together at the start. She has drawn to land midfield or better and with the blinkers going on at the right time and is ready to win now. RP $3.00, $3.70

Dangers:

5. Overstayer  is a big strong fella who looks a promising staying type. May need this being his first over grund though.

For First4s in order: 3-6-2

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

4.Alpha Charlie Second up last start at Ruakaka He relaxed nicely midfield on the fence then loomed to win 150 metres out but was outfinished late by the winner who had 3kgs less. His closing 600 and 400 was the fastest of the race and there was daylight to third. Bred to win a few races too being a half brother to Hell Yeah and Slah, both 7 race winners. Drawn out here but with an even tempo likely, Leith Innes will likely snag and get a track into it and looks ready to peak now. RP $5, $8FF

Dangers in order:

2.Ranger was beaten by the smart Vamos Bebe here last start and if they leave him alone in front, will be hard to run down.

8.King Farouk last start after drawing wide he wasn’t rushed out of the gates and ended up last on the fence. But once he got out and balanced up, he really let down well for sixth running his L200m in 10.90, just outside the fastest of the day! That was against some smart race winners and up to 1300m suits. Just needs a good run.

For First 4s: 1 and 3

Race 3

Confidence:2/5

3.Gus The Maverick last start at Te Rapa after getting back off a good tempo, he came the widest on the turn and the rider dropped his whip soon after. But he kept on closing running the fastest L200m 12.54, of the race. Ready to strike now. From the good draw should get the gun run  and be the one to beat. RP $4.50, $5.50 FF

Dangers in order:

7.Can I get the Amen  strong 2nd fresh up and a definite improver.

8.Cinzento ran a top race here last start here. She did extremely well to hold on for second after getting well back then improving wide in the open to get closer on the turn then showed real courage to fight on. She ran the fastest L800 46.19 of the race. John Bary has got her back on track. Best ridden cold.

2.Spiderman  ran on ok last start. Opie replaces the apprentice and he ran a top second before that.

Race 4

Confidence: 3/5

3.Swisswatch looks like getting an uncontested lead and when he gets that and is ready, usually wins. The way he trialed leading all the way and had a bit in the tank, means he is ready to go. RP $2.40, $2.90 FF

Dangers:

6.Lincoln Hills  won well here from the trail fresh up and maps to get the same run and looks the main danger.

For First 4s: 1 and 8

Race 5

Confidence: 3/5

12.Festivity  is a smart mare who is unbeaten in fast times. Looked very ready to win fresh up in her latest trial. Has the tactical speed to let Danielle Johnson put her in a winning position. RP $1.60, $1.70 FF

For First 4s: 10-7-5-6

Race 6

Confidence: 3/5

4.Marscapone won really well here two weeks ago in good time and the best closing sectionals. Big strong galloper who maps to get a winning run again and looks hard to beat. RP $2.20, $2.30

For First 4s in order: 1-5-3-2

Race 7

Confidence: 3/5

1.Need I say More at Te Rapa bounced and showed good early speed to lead and dictate to them and raced away to win easily. Big strong fella and should be able to lead or sit outside it and with a moderate tempo likely again, it will take a good effort to beat him. RP $1.60, $1.70 FF

For First 4s in order: 2-4-6-12

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

4.Grand Bouquet was a different hose on a better track last start. Gets that again and gets an 8kg advantage over Beauden. RP  $3.20, $3.80 Ff

Danger:

1.Beauden last start here once he was balanced up and got that big frame of his wound up, he found the line strongly in 10.87, the equal fastest L200 of the day and did it lumping 62kgs!. He carries the same weight this time and steps to 2000m. Negative is the wide draw with that weight.

 

Race 9

The speed map shows Callsign Mav and The Mitigator looking to get out fast and cross and lead and a few others looking to settle close up behind those two. An even tempo likely suiting all runners.

Last year in this they ran the first 1000m pretty hard in 59.04 averaging 11.81 per 200m to the 600m mark, the fastest of all races on the day. That set it up nicely for melody belle who was 6th outer in running. She led 300m out and won easily with the on pace runners unable to repel the closers. This year I’m picking an even tempo with Callsign Mav and The Mitigator going forward with Avantage likely to land about 6th outer with a better beginning. Two Illicit should be right on her back.

Confidence: 2/5

12.Two Illicit put together some brilliant runs last campaign. Not only with her fast sprinting ability but her determination as well with a tough second in the fast run Derby. With a query over any 3yo filly who has had a hard campaign, there is always the question about whether or not they can come back as a 4yo. But she put those fears to bed fresh up at Ellerslie when putting together an easy win giving weight to all of them carrying 59kgs. Her sectionals were outstanding running the fastest splits all day from the 600 to the 200m after which she led and held on comfortably. RP $4.50

Dangers:

8.Avantage  did very well in the Tarzino when she missed the jump and settled midfield then had to get out wider early and still kept coming gamely for third. She will be spot on third up and with a better beginning, should land around 6th outer and be the one Two Illicit has to run down.

13.Loire in the Tarzino she got well back and was held up for a few strides in the straight but hit the line with a bit in the tank. Fastest L800m 45.58 and looks very strong. So the step to 1600m looks ideal. Drawn to land 4 back inner but if they go too hard, she is the one to upset them at $34 and $6.50 FF.

3.Pris De Fer  ran a strong 3rd in the Tarzino and will improve a few lengths off that. If Opie can slot him in one off somewhere with his tactical speed, he should be right in this.

Other thoughts:

7.Melody Belle  is the class horse of the field but race fitness is the issue. But drawn to land in the trail if she pings well, and from there, it would be hard to see her out of a place.

9.Supera we were on in the Tarzino after she did nothing on the fence and blasted home late along the fence. This time she won’t get as good a run and second up against a top class field again, I can see her getting back and running on nicely but be better placed in the Livamol.

11.Jennifer Eccles  I just can’t see why the money has come for her. There were much better runs in the Tarzino and while 1600m will suit better from a good draw, I’m not convinced she has come back after a tough campaign last season.

14.Vancooga  has been running on home in fast sectionals and if they did go stupid up front, she could do it but I can’t see them doing that so the Livamol does look the right race for her in two weeks.

6.Callsign Mav is very likely to trail The Mitigator with them both being hunted up wide out and Peter McKay saying they want the front with The Mitigator this time. From there, if they do button off, could sneak into the First Four as 1600m did find him out in weaker races last campaign.

 

Race 10

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race.

1.Beyond The Fort ran a top third fresh up running the fastest L200 of the race. 1600m looks ideal and with a good tempo likely, has the class to get over these. RP $5, $8 FF

For First 4s in order: 13-11-12-10-5-4

Riccarton 

Race 5

Confidence: 3/5

3.Marine  looked above average winning on debut and is very highly thought of. 1400m suits even better and from the good draw, looks the one to beat again. RP $1.90

Race 7

Confidence: 3/5

7.Phantom Witness last start was the run of the day. After bounding at the start and getting back and having a slight tendency to hang, he almost got up and won. He had to put in the best closing sectionals all day, L800 44.94, 33.67, 22.21 and 11.29 to do it though and in by far the best speed rating all day. With natural improvement, he looks nicely placed here, despite the wide draw, if Sam Wynne can give him a run with cover, he is going to be very hard to keep out here. RP $3.60, $4.60 FF

Race 8

Confidence: 4/5

5.Cornflower Blue last start was the most impressive winner of the day by far. From her wide draw she had to use petrol to get 2nd outer on the 2nd fastest tempo of the 4 x 1200m races 24.57, but looked to be relishing her work. When asked to go by Danielle she exploded away to win in almost identical time as the R65 field. In her prelim she went down as though she wanted to race and that showed up in her win. Very smart filly and she does look a class above these. RP $1.60, $1.90 FF

Race 10

Confidence: 3/5

15.Communique  built to a strong win last start at Te Rapa over 1600m in a good speed rating. The step to 1800m here is ideal and from the good draw should get every chance. Top trainer Stephen Autridge will have her spot on. RP $2.50, $3.00 Ff

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!