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Thursday preview below

Good morning,

There looks to be two very well placed runners today, Mister Reliable $2.30  and Beauty Star at $2.30. Other than that, not a lot of value.

Bet of the day Race 1 11.Mister Reliable $2.30 FF 1st $1.80 

Suggested Multi with Race 7 4.Beauty Star $2.30 1st $1.77 $52.90 returned for every $10 

Suggested late quaddie for 10% for $19  Yes Paid $214 

R7    4
R8    4, 5, 6, 7, 9
R9    2, 3, 5, 10
R10   1, 2, 6, 8, 14

Race 1

Confidence: 3/5

11.Mister Reliable  really found the line with determination and had to change ground doing it. He had the best closing sectionals in all categories which compared well to better class races and different tempos. He looks like a good  horse who will be very hard to beat over 1400m now from a top stable. After going through all runners, there are enough on speed runners to set up a fast enough tempo for Craig Grylls to allow him to settle back and with natural improvement from his debut run, it is hard to see anything good enough to hold him out in this. RP $$2.20, $2.50 FF

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

10.Florentina  ran on ok on debut after being away a bit slowly. Then top trainer Stephen Autridge started her in the 3yo race in a much harder field and after looking to be travelling well, just gave the towel in and was eased down. The tongue tie goes on ( as does the side winkers) so she may have been holding her breath. He must have a decent opinion of her, so back in a an easier maiden field over 1400m looks ideal to justify his opinion.

Race 7

Confidence: 3/5

4.Beauty Star ran a solid fourth in a stronger field last start and lost ground coming across heels on the bend. This is easier and Danille Johnson jumps on. Should get an ideal run and looks hard to beat. RP $2.00, $2.40 FF

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

5.Bordeaux Le Rouge  looks well placed third up with the side winkers going on from Te Akau. Strong fourth in a good field last start and with a good beginning should be able to cross over 2nd outer and be the one to beat from there. RP $3.40

Dangers:

7.Prosperous  looked good winning fresh up at Avondale and fought on well for fourth last start here.

9.Supreme Khan won well on debut but in the slowest of the 5  x 1200m races. Drawn wide and will need a perfect ride to beat the above two. $3.20 is too short.

4.Our Prom King  will likely lead and if the inside is the place to be, could be hard to catch.

6.Redford few favours last start. The upsetter.

Race 9

Confidence: 1/5

3.Rocket Ship  maps to get a soft lead here and if he reproduces that last run for second, could do it all the way.

10.Kitty Cugat won her maiden well last start. Fitter third up and Danille jumps on.

5.Caitlyn Jay  should get a good run this time near the pace and be right in this.

2.Atomic Kitten debuts in the south and showed grit winning on a heavy track in August. Wide draw no help.

Race 10

Confidence: 2/5

2.Ritani rates on top here in the Formpro ratings based on her good runs behind Crystallize and Lupelani in the north. Trialed at Rangiora and the rider lost his irons but still looked good in her action. Drawn the inside and if that is still ok, can upset the favourites. RP $5, $7.50 FF

Dangers:

6.Jewel Of Patch  good third in a stronger field here last start. Ready to win now.

1.Aotea Lad  has been rating well and gets 2kgs off in an easier race.

8.All About Magic tough run fresh up and good runs in strong fields last campaign.

14.Sorceress  when right can be hard to beat. Side winkers go on which could get the best out of her and early money has come for her.

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!