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Tuesday preview below

Update 12.10 p.m. No further bets- top ride by Opie on Gone West

Tuesday preview

A strange day at Melbourne with no crowds, but I’m still looking forward to this great race. Tiger Moth looks to have that X factor that will nearly always win a Melbourne Cup. The draw just keeps his price to a decent one. At Ellerslie, Gone West  in the first race looks a solid chance and has been backed in early. Sherrif  will need the race run to suit but if it is he can definitely beat those home. A Proper Lady is ready to win a race and strikes the right race to win with Leith Innes up. In fact, he is a reasonable chance to win the Jockey Challenge, so his opening price will of interest ($6) . If they are winning off the inside by race 8, then Sonofabutcher  is a decent eachway chance.

I’ve not previewed the Wingatui meeting as I just have no confidence with the form down there. I’ll post an update by noon with any Head to Heads or other bets.

Bet of the day Ellerslie Race 7 6.Sherrif $3.30 FF 4th 

Value bet of the day Ellerslie Race 1 1.Gone West $5 FF 1st and showed the absolute value of knowing the last 200m of horses.

Suggested late quaddie $20 for 10%

R7   5, 6, 11, 13
R8    6, 8, 10, 16, 18
R9    11, 13
R10    2, 3, 8, 9, 14

Melbourne Cup

Flemington Race 7 5 p.m.

Confidence: 2/5

21.Tiger Moth really does look to have that X Factor and against an average Melbourne Cup field on 52.5kgs he looks ideally placed. His Irish Derby 2nd here was excellent and the form has been strongly franked since and a gap to the rest. He relaxes well and with the very good Kerrin McEvoy on board, who is no stranger to winning Melbourne Cups having won on Cross Counter in 2018 and Almandin in 2016, He just needs to get cover somewhere, ( The last two Cup winners have drawn barrier 23)  and with the fence likely to be off, he should be able to get a track into it and draw to the outside near the 400m and with that light weight and his powerful excellent action for a dry track, be very hard to keep out over 3200m with an even tempo likely suiting all runners.  Top trainer Aidan O’Brien really wants to win this race and he knows what it takes, so he has the ideal horse for this and got him in on a winning weight. RP $5, $7.50 FF

Dangers:

13.Surprise Baby ran a top race in this last year off a slow tempo. Better tempo will suit and drawn to get the right run with Craig Williams up.

12.Prince Of Arran was promoted from 3rd to 2nd for this last year and ran a good 4th in the Caulfield Cup. Drawn to get the ideal run.

1.Anthony Van Dyck game second un the Caulfield Cup and 3200m will suit better.

 

Ellerslie

Race 1

Confidence:2/5

1.Gone West 1st $5 broke through for his maiden win at Tauranga in faster time than the R65 race. The indicator to how good it was, was his last 200m in 11.92 whereas in the R65 race, run at a slower tempo, no horse broke 12 seconds for their last 200 metres. He was strong after the line and it was just his second run back from a spell. So he has to improve off that and Opie knows him well now. From the draw, he should be able to land in a good spot and be very hard to beat. His breeding, with his dam Pravda having won two Group threes, indicates he can win a few races over ground. Blinker go on at the request of Opie Bosson. RP $4, $5 FF

Danger: 

2.Iago  strong third here last start in R74 field getting all favours. Negatives are first go at a middle distance this campaign, wide draw and hasn’t won for a long time.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

1.Edit 1st $2.50 has run two strong seconds with above average closing sectionals in the context of the day. Up to 1400m suits third up and has the good draw this time to land in a winning spot especially with Danielle Johnson up now. RP $2.40

Dangers:

2.Humbucker The way he found the line for second to the smart Entriviere in the best speed rating all day, means this strong looking 4yo gelding will relish the 1400m. Wide draw no help though but gets 2kgs off.

11.Super Centie closed off strongly in the fastest last 200m of the race. The step to 1400m looks ideal.

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

9.Helsinki was a good lay last start at $1.50 on a wet track and left handed. She looks a much better galloper right handed on a Dead or better surface. She gets that here and with Danielle on board, should get every chance. She is a strong left hand whip rider which will be a plus with her too. RP $3.60, $4.40 FF

Dangers:

1.Ever So Easy ran an improver’s second last start and will have been set for this $30k maiden. Drawn to get all favours.

Race 4

Confidence:2/5

3.Gino Severini  just beaten here by Justacanta last start and meets him better off at the weights. Drawn to get an ideal run on pace and looks hard to beat third up. RP $3.60, $4.20 FF

Dangers:

4.Aligns With Me  goes best second up and with 2kgs off with a tidy run fresh up, could upset.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

7.A Proper Lady  3rd $2  looked a bit fresh last start here when she got back and was a bit keen off a moderate tempo but worked home nicely in good sectionals. She needs a decent tempo to settle better and should get that here. From the good draw, she should land around midfield or better and from there, from what she has shown so far, is a good eachway chance if she can get the gaps. RP $6, $9.50 FF

Race 6

Confidence:2/5

7.Familia 1st $5  has run two strong seconds rating very well. Drawn to get a good run and third up will be right at her peak. RP $5, $7 FF

Dangers:

13.Super Pursuit  is a good horse and despite the class rise, has drawn to get a good run and be right in it.

Race 7

The speed map shows five runner who will look to lead or be on it and an even tempo likely with wide runners going forward.

Confidence: 3/5

6.Sherrif  looks well suited stepping to 2000m fourth up after two very good runs over 1600m. Likely to be allowed to settle back and with an even tempo likely, he can track into it and be hard to keep out with Leith Innes up. RP $3.00

Dangers:

5.Vadavar  big run the Group 1 for third. This is easier. negative is he will likely be 3 or 4 back inner and need luck.

13.Fiscal Fantasy 1st $7 won this race last year and should get a good run. Trialed up very nicely.

11.De Konig  put in a big effort last start after working hard to elad and was run down late by a good horse. If he can begin cleaner and lead, he could upset.

Race 8

Looks like an even tempo suiting all runners.

16.Sonofabutcher has been finding the line in very good sectionals in good fields. Drawn out here and will need a good ride but if he he gets the right run into it, is a decent eachway chance at nice odds. RP $8, $14 Ff

Dangers:

18.Couturiere  ran on very nicely for third here fresh up and the step to 1600m is ideal.

10.Rhaegar 1st $7   likely to try and lead and stack them but hard to see them leaving him alone in the big field with runners caught wide.

6.Master Painton  won the Dunstan Feeds Final here over 1500m in fast time and ran an improver’s race fresh up.

Race 9

Confidence: 1/5

13.Dawned On Me  just lost a couple of lengths last start on the last turn, while the winner =cut the corner and got the advantage. Right at her peak for this and has the early speed to get into a good spot and be the one to beat. RP $5

Dangers:

11.Extortion  has needed a left hand whip rider left handed at his first two starts. Maybe right handed, he will run straighter but he does have the ability to win with a good run.

 

Race 10

Confidence: `1/5

8.My World 3rd $4 has run two very good races sectionally at his last two starts. He has drawn well this time and if he can bounce better, which he can do, he should land in the first eight runners and he can upset from there. RP $10, $ $18 FF

Dangers:

14.Waimoku Falls  has the breeding and galloping action to say she can be right in this. Smart win on debut.

3.Fighting Fire just needs to begin like he can and he will be in the right place to win with Danielle Johnson on again.

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!