The full preview of Avondale is here. Our bet for the Melbourne Cup, Tiger Moth ran a top race for second in the Melbourne Cup after working from a wide draw to get into a good spot behind the leader. Like you, I really did think he had the measure of Twilight Payment 200 metres out but the winner was just too tough. Rider, Kerrin McEvoy, the rider of Tiger Moth, was fined $50,000, most of his $55,000 riding fee, after using the whip 13 times before the 100 metre mark, 5 times is the maximum. What if he got up by a nose? What’s the bet it is going to happen here or in Australia in a big race then that will trigger the process of banning the whip and only allow it to be carried for safety reasons.
Value bet of the day here, Gone West, bolted in yesterday after a top ride from Opie. It showed the value of knowing the last 200 metres of a race, as his last 200m at Tauranga was superior to the R65s run at a slower tempo and he was strong through the line in a faster race time, indicating he would easily cope with a rise in class. I’ve backed plenty of winners here and in Australia analysing those last 200 metres. I’ve often said specialising in an area of punting is the way to go, and doing your study on those last 200 metres alone, taken in context with the other last 200 metres on the day, would be a great place to start. I remember when Protectionist ran fourth in the 2014 Caulfield Cup running his last 200m in 11.63, it compared very well with shorter races in good fields on the same day. That was the main reason I selected him to win the Melbourne cup that year when we got on early at a good price.
There’s a nicely placed runner in the second race today at Avondale.
2.Vedo Rosso has rated well in stronger fields. He ran a close second at Ellerslie in an R65 $50k race in fast time. Last start in a stronger R65 field was slow away and got trapped rear inner and was doing ok through the line. A Dead track with 3kgs off makes him well placed. RP $3.40
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