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Sunday preview below

Update 11.55 a.m.

The best head to head all day is Race 7  Aero De Paris $1.80 to beat Willpower. Aero De Paris will relish a slow to heavy track, especially if the forecast rain comes. Willpower is a nice horse but his best form is on dead or better and his action says he needs that too. Aero De Paris hung all the wat and wasn’t ridden out to run last by a nose to Willpower who was ridden out!

Nice multi with Real Slim Tradie to return $37.80 for every $10

Hastings

Good morning,

There is rain forecast for this afternoon on the Slow 7 track so it makes it tricky working out what track conditions will be at the time of each race. Real Slim Tradie looks like a very nice horse and looks well placed in race 5.  Cruz  Ramirez will find that field easier and is right at his peak with Lisa Allpress on board. I’ll post an update by noon.

Bet of the day Race 5 1.Real Slim Tradie $2.10 1st $1.70

Value bet of the day Race Race 6 4.Yeah Right $4.80 Ff

Multi of the day Real Slim Tradie ( race 5 ) and Cruz Ramirez $3.20 to return $67.20 for $10 Yes

Suggested late quaddie for $8.10 for 10%

R6   1, 4, 7
R7   2, 4, 6
R8   6, 7, 9
R9    2, 7, 12

 

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

7.Cruz Ramirez  last start in a harder field at Trentham began well, sat 5th and fought on strongly for 3rd behind Cross Road ( 2nd) who was a strong winner next up at Awapuni. he handles a slow track fine and ran a top 2nd here to Conor O’Ceirin on a slow track. Drawn wide but will very likely be hunted out to get 2nd outer by Lisa ( Blinkers go on which will help sharpen him also) and can control the tempo from there. Rates 2 lengths on top after weight adjustments in the Formpro Ratings. RP $3.00

Race 5

Confidence: 3/5

1.Real Slim Treadie  was impressive on debut at Trentham when handy 3 wide in the open down the chute and got a bit lost over the crossing but really closed off strongly for second  running the best L200 of the race over the 1200m and in a good speed rating. The step to 1300m looks ideal and any rain will only help. has the early speed to get onto the pace in a good spot. RP $2.00, $2.10 FF

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

4.Yeah Right  ran home strongly for second last start in the fastest closing sectionals in all categories on a similar slow track. He almost won here on a slow track last Winter over 1650m. He is looking for more ground now and maps to get a good run around 4th outer and get every chance. RP $4.50, $4.80 FF

Dangers: 

1.Botti  ran a strong second last start. gets 3kgs off and if Sam can land midfield, the 3kgs off can give him a winning chance.

7.Canucia  did the most work last start but won with something in hand. maps to get a better run and J Parkes jumps on which is a plus.

9.Fisherman’s Blues maps to get a soft lead and with 3 kgs off, after running an unlucky 7th here in a stronger R65 field two starts back, could upset.

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

2.Aero De Paris will relish any aqua falling during the day. He bolted in fresh up on a heavy track at Rotorua and things just didn’t work out at Tauranga after drawing wide. maps to get an ideal run in behind an even tempo and get every chance. Good eachway chance as the two favourites prefer a better surface. RP $5, $7.50 FF

Dangers:

6.Blood Warrior  fell when going well at Ellerslie. Handles a slow track well.

4.Madam Hass tough win last start beating the hotty Festivity. Prefers a Dead track so if rain stays away, could get away with it.

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

9.Serena  should land around 6th outer, especially if the inside is off, and get every chance after her game 3rd behind next up winner Excelleration. Wouldn’t want it to get to heavy though. RP $4.50

Dangers:

7.Quantum  won’t mind any rain. Good closing sectionals last start in a  stronger R74 field. gets 2kgs off.

6.Very Appealing  game fifth here fresh and slight lameness last start. Could lead them a merry chase. Any rain will help as has won on a heavy track.

Race 9

12.Sacrosanct  has shown the ability to win a few more races. Two starts back at Ellerslie closed off in the fastest L800m of the race. Then last start was held up at a vital stage. A slow 7/8 is ok but a heavy track will be no good. RP $4

Dangers:

2.Holsty  is the obvious danger. Nice horse and fitter now.

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!