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Tuesday preview below

Good morning,

Another tricky day of punting on a heavy track at Te Aroha. The two bets I like today are at Addington detailed below.

Addington

Confidence: 3/5

2.Majestic Man was a dominant winner last start and he maps to lead and the trainer said he is right in the zone on Trackside. He is a very good trotter and will be very hard to run down with a soft midrace time. RP $2.50 , $2.70 FF

Race 11 NZ Cup

Confidence: 3/5

11.Self Assured 1st $4.20 with a 10/10 start and drive by mark Purdon.   is the best horse in the race and 3200m ids ideal. He is iffy from a stand but as long as mark Purdon can get him one off even at the back of the field, he is going to get a good run into it at some stage and be very hard to beat. RP $2.80, $3 FF

Te Aroha

Suggested late quaddie $7.20 for 10%

R5   1, 9, 10, 20
R6   7, 10
R7   6, 8, 9
R8   2, 6, 12

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

11.Truth Beknown  ran a top 2nd last start on a Heavy track after being last, working wide midrace, then after leading after turning in, was run down by a 10/10 ride on the winner, Wind Chimes, who got on to her backside 600 metres out. She has to be fitter for that and a heavy track should be ok. Drawn to land midfield or just behind it and be a nice eachway chance. RP $%, $6 FF

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

2.Covenant on debut ran home strongly for second with a gap to third in a good speed rating. Nice action for a heavy track and should be a hard to beat. RP

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5 

1.The Villain ran two strong seconds last campaign and the way he trialed up where he trailed and worked home under his own steam for second looking very strong in his action, shows that he is ready to win fresh up. Drawn wide but the inside should be off by this time and sitting wide with cover will be a good place to be. RP $3.00, $3.80 FF

Race 5

Confidence: 1/5

9.Sussex  won impressively at Matamata and the speed rating was the best of the day which says he can win this average R65 race as he is very fit and has a good action for a heavy track. He is likely to share the pace with Fleurgundy and as long as they don’t go head to head, he will be hard to run down. RP $4.00, $4.80 FF

Dangers:

10.Sweet Molly Malone bolted in at Ellerslie on a similar surface. Should see out 1400m this time.

1.Fleurgundy will relish a heavy track and gets 3kgs off.

20.Call Me Bob  will relish a heavy track.

Race 6

Confidence:2/5

10.Four Queens  just blew out in a stronger maiden on debut after racing handy. Action says a heavy track will be fine . RP $2.40, $3 FF

Dangers:

7.Rubyshowoff  fought well for third two back on a heavy track.

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

9.Initiative 1st $4.40 goes best on a heavy track and with a freshener, will be hard to beat. RP $4

8.Misstumut goes well on a heavy track and should be in this. has the best FR on a heavy track.

6.Caballero  has the blinkers going on and drawn wide which should be an asset.

Race 8

6.Global Currency 1st $3.60   looked very good winning his trial at Te Teko but was just average on debut. Action says he may handle a heavy track and breeding says he should. RP $4

Dangers:

2 and 12 drawn to stay away from the inside and shown enough to be the main dangers.

 

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!