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Saturday 21 November preview below

Update 11.16 a.m.

Head to heads

Awapuni

Race 1 Love For All $2 to beat Wicket Maiden Yes

Multi of the day Love to All $2 and Rock on Wood to win $1.60    $10 returns $32 Yes 

If you want to add one more to the multi, add Levante to win at $3.80 to make it $121.60 return for $10 Yes

 

Saturday preview

Good morning,

Some good racing today. I’ve detailed the best placed bets and the false favourites for the day. No quality bets. There is just not enough value in the good confidence selections. Patience is a virtue in punting! I’ll post an update by 12.15 with any Head to Head or other bets.

Bryan, who won the Heads Up multi has Rock On Wood and Son of Bielski to win $160

Bet of The day Awapuni Race 4 2.Rock On Wood $1.85 FF  1st $1.60

Value bet of the day Pukekohe Race 6 1.Son Of Bielski $5 FF 3rd $2

The GOAT’s best sports bet is Australia -5.5 against Argentina tonight.

 

Speed map Specials Awapuni Race 2 2.Stumpy $3.60 FF

Pukekohe race 3 9.Beldarra $3.40 in from $3.90 FF,

Pukekohe race 5 1.Supera $3.50 FF

Pukekohe race 8 14.Levante $3.80 FF 1st $4.20 

 

Best Double figure bets:

Pukekohe Race 9 12.Ever So Clever $13 and $4.40

Pukekohe Race 6 12.A Proper Lady $12 FF and $3.80 Ff

 

Pukekohe False favourites:

Pukekohe Race 1 4.Star Tsar has been backed in from $3.40 to $2.90 but maps to get back in a big field and with a moderate tempo likely, that price is too short. Yes 

Pukekohe Race 3 1.Quattro Quinta  had his chance last start and was fairly beaten by race rival Miss Ipenema. Likely to be 2nd outer after working  or even 3 wide open so hard to take the $3.20 with Beldarra getting all favours. Yes 

Pukekohe Race 4 1.Packing Rockstar  had every chance last start and fought ok. Drawn out and with 60kgs, is going to have to work  so the $3.50 is too short. Yes 

Pukekohe Race 5 The money has come for 5.Jennifer Eccles $7 into $5 which is surprising based on her below par efforts at Hastings. She disappointed fresh up after getting every chance and didn’t fire second up. She had a tough campaign last time and there is still a query over whether she has come back or not. Based on those two efforts, she hasn’t so hard to justify $5 Yes 

Race 7 4.Savy Yong Blonk is against some good middle distance runners and steps from 1600m to 2100m after an average effort at Trentham. Yes 

Awapuni False favourites

Race 1 1.Perfect Scenario  two good wins but drawn wide and will need luck. $2.30 is getting too short. Yes 

Race 2 4.Romantic Lady  has been freshened up and trialed ok. Drawn out though and will need luck to get in one off or work to get 2nd outer and be vulnerable. No – got a good run and got the bob in.

Race 3 7.Amathusia  looked good running home for 2nd last start from a long way back. The trainer said before that race that she will excel over a middle distance, so with only a moderate tempo here, where she is likely to get back inner with her lack of early speed, she will be running on but unlikely that they will have gone hard enough for her to get over them. $3.30 is too short. Yes 

Suggested late quaddie for $22.40 for 10% Yes $126 returned for 10%

R6   1, 4, 12, 14
R7   2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 12, 13
R8   14
R9   1, 2, 3, 8, 11, 12, 18

Pukekohe Park

Race 1

The speed map shows not a lot of on pace runners or leaders, so a moderate tempo likely.

Confidence: 2/5

5.Dance Card has had three runs back and last start fought on well for 4th at her first go over ground this campaign. She will be fitter for that and drops back in class for this. She is set to repeat last campaign’s pattern of winning fourth up over ground. Should land in the fiirst 6 in running which will be a plus. RP $6, $7.50 FF 3rd $3.00

Dangers:

11.Landgrave has looked good in both of his wins and Opie sticks with him. Side winkers go on.

4.Star Tsar has been backed in from $3.40 to $3.20 but maps to get back in a big field and with a moderate tempo likely, that price is too short.

Race 2

The speed map shows plenty of speed and should suit all runners.

Confidence: 1/5

17.Monlula  is a promising horse who did well to win last start. Up in class but did run a big fifth in the NZ Derby last year. The harder they go, the better his chances. RP $7, $10 Ff

Dangers:

2.Cha Siu Bao very good second last start and just needs luck from a wide draw.

4.Rhaegar  top win in good time last start. Up in weight but if left alone, will be hard to run down.

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

9.Beldarra  has won both of her trails from wide draws and looked very good winning them too! She has a good action and has drawn the inside barrier where it is often crucial coming around that bend as some tend to go wide and get a bit lost. But if she can hug that rail she should be able to make full use of it and prove the one to beat. RP $3.50, $4.20 FF

Dangers:

1.Quattro Quinta  had his chance last start and was fairly beaten. Likely to be 2nd outer or even 3 wide open so hard to take the $3.20 with Beldarra getting all favours

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

3.Super Strike  has won both of his races in impressive fashion and the sectionals say he can win more. The big roomy track will suit him and just needs a reasonable run to win again. RP $3.50, $3.60 FF 2nd 

Dangers:

1.Packing Rockstar  had every chance last start and fought ok. Drawn out and with 60kgs, is going to have to work  so the $3.50 is too short.

Race 5

The speed map shows and even speed with four runners likely to try and lead or be on it so an even tempo likely.

Confidence: 2/5

1.Supera ran a top second in the 1400m Tarzino Trophy beaten by Callsign Mav. So back against the girls only after a nice trial run, she looks well placed at WFA. With an even tempo likely, she will get her chance. She is likely in foal too which, being a cranky mare, could really settle her down and she could produce a top class effort. RF $3.20, $3.70 Ff

Other thoughts:

6.Le Castille  is racing well and back on a better track with the blinkers going on, from a good draw, makes her a chance.

2.Supreme Heights just keeps finding and if she got a softish time up front, will be hard to run down.

The money has come for Jennifer Eccles which is surprising based on her below par efforts at Hastings. She disappointed fresh up after getting every chance and didn’t fire second up. She had a tough campaign last time and there is still a query over whether she has come back or not. based on those two efforts, she hasn’t.

7.Familia won really well last start and maps to get all favours.

Race 6 First leg of the quaddie

Confidence: 2/5

1.Son Of Bielski  looked very good running second fresh up over 1400m running the best closing sectionals in all categories. He looked good last campaign and has definitely strengthened up since then. He snagged after beginning evenly fresh up and has enough early speed to slot in handy and get a winning run. RP $4.50

Dangers:

12. A Proper Lady  just needs a decent tempo to be hard to beat. Should get that this time and drawn to get all favours. Good eachway chance at double figure odds.

4.Edit  1st $3.80 won well last start and maps to get a good run.

14.Roch ‘N’ Horse  won well on debut. Opie jumps on.

 

Race 7

The speed map shows Justamaiz and In A Twinkling can share the lead and with no other obvious leaders and just a few on pace runners, it is likely to be run at a moderate tempo and suit runners in the first half of the field.

Confidence:1/5 in an open race

5.Justamaiz  has had three runs back now and looks ready and fit enough to step to 2100m now. If he can begin cleanly, can slide over and share the lead with In A Twinkling. From there he can press on and make it a true staying test or sit outside the leader and try and outsprint them. Won here last year in the best time for the last 20 years here over 2400m.

Dangers:

6.Paisley Park  has come back in top form and was unlucky last start. Drawn to get a good run and be right in this.

3.Ocean Billy  ran a top race in the Group 1 Livamol after working the hardest and fought well for 7th, 5.5 L from the winner. This is easier and drawn to get all favours.

4.Savvy Yong Blonk    ran on late at Trentham and 2100m on  better track is a plus.

Other thoughts:

6.Paisly Park in career best form and can’t be left out of quaddies from a good draw.

8.Pinmedown  fitter now and good run last start here after being held up.

Race 8

The speed map shows plenty of early speed and should set up for every runner over the 1100m.

Confidence: 3/5

14.Levante  looked top class last campaign but still a bit weak. In her recent trial she showed she has come back stronger and very ready to win fresh up. This good tempo will suit her so she should be able to snag back, and get out wider and get over these as long as there is no strong leader and inside bias. RP $3.50, $4.20 FF 1st $4.20 

Dangers:

15.Only In Jakarta won strongly fresh up and will be improved. Chances depend on the inside being ok and not being taken on too much.

Race 9

Confidence: 2/5

12.Ever So Clever  looked very good last campaign and fresh up just got going about 50 metres too late to win. She will be fitter for that run and if she can get a good run with cover, she is a good eachway chance. RP $8, $13 FF

Dangers:

1.Marroni  peaking third up now. Needs a good ride though. 1st $6 

3.Super Gee  racing very well and is very fit.

18.Triomphe  can unleash a powerful last 200m and fresh up with a light weight, is the upsetter.

Awapuni

Race 1

Confidence:2/5

7.Love For All 2nd $1.80  ran on well late at Trentham once she got out of a hole. Has a good dry track action and 1300m will suit. Drawn to do nothing and drive hard late. RP $7, $9 FF

Dangers:

1.Perfect Scenario  two good wins but drawn wide and will need luck.

6.Shezzacatch  won well on debut but the time was the slowest of the 4 1200m races.

2.Wicket Maiden disappointed at Hastings. Drawn out and needs things to go her way and still suspect about her coming back.

Race 2

The speed map shows Maison Roxanne and Desert Magic should share the pace and Stumpy getting a nice run about 4th or 5th outer. A moderate tempo likely.

Confidence: 3/5

2.Stumpy 2nd  second up here last week drew wide and began well but snagged to the back. Once balanced up he kept up a sustained sprint to almost grab the smart winner. This is easier and he maps to land about 4th or 5th in the right spot. From there, with the 3kgs off, he will be in the right spot to capitalise and drive over these late. So third up, looks well placed. RP $3.50, $3.70 FF

Dangers:

4.Romantic Lady  1st $2.80 has been freshened up and trialed ok. Drawn out though and will need luck to get in one off or work to get 2nd outer and be vulnerable.

Race 3

Confidence:1/5

14.Llanacord 3rd $2.30   did well second up when caught 3 wide in the open and held on well for fourth. Fitter for that and should get on the pace with a better run and be harder to beat on the better surface as well. RP $6

Dangers:

7.Amathusia  looked good running home for 2nd last start from a long way back. The trainer said before that race that she will excel over a middle distance, so with only a moderate tempo here, where she is likely to get back inner with her lack of early speed, she will be running on but unlikely that they will have gone hard enough for her to get over them.

Race 4

The speed map shows 3 runners going forward and a moderate to even tempo likely.

Confidence: 4/5

2.Rock On Wood is a Group 1 horse in waiting. he almost beat Hypnox at Hastings giving him 4.5kgs and Hypnos went on to win the Group 2 Coupland’s Mile. There should be enough speed up front and with the small field, he shouldn’t get held up and looks a class above these. Rates 4 lengths clear in the Formpro Ratings after weight adjustments. RP $1.60, $1.85 FF 1st $1.60 

Race 5

Tough race- in order: 5-4-2-6-1-7

Race 6

The speed map shows Cross Roads and Cruz Ramirez sliding to the lead with Belle Plaisir trailing and a moderate tempo likely.

Confidence: 2/5

10.Cruz Ramirez  was travelling like a winner well out last start and won easily in a strong speed rating. he is right at his peak and although up in class, he gets in on a winning weight. Lisa Allpress will likely let him slide up outside the leader again and from there, he looks a strong eachway chance. RP $4.50, $5.50 FF 1st $3.50 

Dangers:

3.Cross Roads  good horse and gets 2kgs off.

9.Akela Belle  won very well here last start. gets 4kgs off.

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

11.Mai Tai  is a good mare and looked good winning at tauranga. Then ran on as though 1400m would suit last start. Just needs a good ride. RP $4.00

dangers:

2.The Grinder  strong second at Trentham and 1400m is ideal.

3.The Rippa can upset back in class with 2kgs off.

1.Free To Shine  is tough and the 3kgs off will help.

 

 

 

 

 

About Neil Davis

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Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!