Home » Results » Saturday 28 November preview below

Saturday 28 November preview below

Update: Head to heads $10 multi returns $43.50 Yes

Ellerslie Race 3 You’re Welcome $1.70 to beat Vedo Rosso

Ellerslie Race 7  The Mitigator $1.60 to beat Tiptronic

Whanganui Race 5 Justaskme $1.60 to beat Hartley

Ellerslie suggested late quaddie $19.20 for 10%

R5   3, 4, 13
R6   1, 6, 7, 15
R7   2
R8 ( field)   1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 15, 17, 19, 20
Ellerslie early quaddie $16.20 for 20%
R1   2, 4, 6
R2   2, 8, 10
R3   1, 5, 10
R4   5, 9, 12

Whanganui late quaddie $24 for 10%

R5   4, 8
R6   1, 3, 4, 6, 11, 13
R7   8, 10, 12, 16
R8   2, 5, 6, 11, 19

Sydney $24 late quaddie for 10%

R6  1, 6, 9, 10, 11
R7   2, 6, 10
R8   4, 14
R9   2, 3, 4, 8, 9, 11, 12, 14

 

Good morning,

An interesting day of racing. Signora Nera $1.50 FF looks the obvious best bet of the day but no value in her. The Mitigator  is a good chance to get a soft lead and win again at $4.20 FF. Plaquette $2.60 in race 5 at Rosehill looks very well placed to win again also. And if Argentina can do the decent thing at +17.5 in the big game tonight, then it could top off a good day. I’ll post an update by noon.

Ian M, who won the $20 multi bet from Heads Up has Signora Nera, Plaquette and Argentina +17.5 to return $146.25

Bet of the day Whanganui Race 3 4.Signora Nera $1.50 Ff 1st $1.90 

Value bet of the day Ellerslie race 7 2.The Mitigator $4.20 Ff 2nd $1.60

Sneaky of the Day Ellerslie race 6 6.Iffie Shows $26 FF

Speed map Specials Ellerslie Race 4 5.James Barrie $5 and Rosehill race 5 7.Plaquette $2.50 FF

False favourites are:

Whanganui Race 1 14.Tudor Queen $3.30 FF 7th

Ellerslie Race 5 13.Vamos Bebe $2 FF 2nd 

 

Heads Up below with a preview of race 7 at both NZ meetings and your chance to win a $20 multi bet.

Rosehill

Race 5

Confidence: 3/5

7.Plaquette  looks well placed here. She drops back in class after a good third at Flemington racing near the pace. before that she won fresh up in a top speed rating and closed off in top sectionals second up. She will settle behind midfield and with a strong tempo very likely, Hugh Bowman just needs to pick the right horse to track into it and she power over these. RP $2.60, $3.10 FF

Ellerslie

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5 in a tricky opener.

2.Monaco  won well last start and just needs the sting out of the track to perform to his best. Maps to get a good run again. RP $4.50, $5.50 FF

Dangers:

4.She’s Not Bad rated a career best FR ( Formpro Rating)  of 110 two starts back here over 1200m. She found the line nicely late fresh up when there wasn’t much money for her. 1400m suits.  Drawn to trail here and get every chance and rates on top after weight adjustments.

6.Star Of Bombay  two handy runs and goes well here and can run times. Drawn to lead early and if left alone will be hard to run down.

Race 2

Confidence: 1/5 and a good race to watch

2.Sneaky Shark  looked good winning his trial here easing down at the end. Drawn wide so needs a top ride.

Danger:

8.Aglianico won her trial here well and has the early speed to get handy.

10.Divine Sava  showed enough in her recent trial when wide and a close third, that from the inside draw, she can get a good run and be an upset chance.

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

5.You’re Welcome  did well last start to dispute a fast early pace and hold on for fourth. He looked very fit then and will be right at his peak for this with Troy Harris replacing the apprentice. RP $5, $5.50 FF

Dangers:

10.Rising Road really appreciated the better track last start and won well. Drawn to get all favours and can upset.

1.Sir Aglovale  is in career best form and just needs a decent run from the wide gate to be in this.

Race 4

Confidence:2/5

5.James Barrie  ran a brave 3rd last start when taken on in front and was only swamped late. Fitter for that and should land behind the decent pace and be in the right place to strike. RP $4.50, $5 FF

Dangers:

9.Gone West  has looked good in his last two wins. If they go hard, ( which depends on Cassio starting in this and not race 3 ) can get over them.

12.Misstumut  fitter after two runs back and is a natural stayer. Can upset.

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

4.Blood Warrior  looks nicely placed here to get off a decent speed and come with the last run at them. RP $8, $11 Ff

Dangers:

3.Madam Hass is a tough mare and will appreciate the better track after a battling 4th last start on a slow one. Drawn to get all favours.

13.Vamos Bebe  won her trial well but was pushed out to draw away while the others weren’t. Drawn wide and will likely snag and rely on a track into it, so $2.00 is too short against some nice horses.

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

15.Helsinki  worked on a decent tempo and did well to hold on for second. Drawn to get all favours and is better this way round. RP $4.50

Dangers:

6.Iffie Shows is the upsetter. He needs 1500m and a decent tempo, which he should get here. Has run some excellent closing sectionals and drawn to get a good run.

1.Tellall  won well here last start and drawn to get all favours.

Race 7

The speed map shows The Mitigator leading over Gino Severini and a moderate tempo is likely.

Confidence: 2/5

2.The Mitigator  won this race last year leading all the way. After his last win getting a soft lead and holding on well with 62kgs, he is in the right for to repeat that. RP $4, $4.80 FF

Dangers:

7.Gino Severini  should get a cosy trail in behind the leader and get every chance from there. Ran 6th in this last year but was caught wide in the open all the way.

3.Beauden ran second to The Mitigator in this last year. With a good run, should be right in this again.

8.Demonetization  may prefer worse ground but is racing very well.

Race 8

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race.

In order: 1-13-2-8-11-6

 

Whanganui

Race 1

Confidence: 1/5

17.Tennessee Rose  has rated well in stronger fields. Drawn wide and will need a decent tempo up front, which looks likely, and with Lisa Allpress up against a weak field could upset these. Actually rates on top in the Formpro Ratings after weight adjustments. RP $$15, $31

Dangers:

14.Tudor Queen  ran a good debut race here and will put some pace into it from the wide draw but will need to work hard to do it.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

8.Marotiri Belle  was confidently expected to win fresh up and did it in good style in good time. Drawn to lead and be the one to beat again. Slow to heavy track ok. RP $3.40

Dangers:

9.First Rock  ready to peak third up and drawn to track the the leader.

Race 3

Confidence: 4/5

4.Signora Nera peaked nicely third up and ran a faster time than the R65 field. Strikes a weak field and should deal to these. RP $1.40, $1.50 FF

Race 4

Open race. In order: 1-2-8-17-3-14

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

8.Justaskme won very well last start and jumps up in class here. Drops to 50kgs though and the small field will allow him to snag to last and with an even tempo likely and the inside likely to be off, he can get over these late. RP $2.60, $2.90 FF

Race 6

Confidence:2/5

1.Angaria  won strongly last start after getting a softish lead. Good strong looking 4yo and if the inside is still ok, he will be the one to beat again. RP $4

Dangers:

3.Seaaprince is a big strong fella and fitter third up now. Heavy track is no problem with Lisa Allpress up.

11.Gerda  looked good winning fresh then ran a fair race second up in a strong field. Owned by a shady bunch so at the right price to win again.

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

8.Obsessive  has taken a few starts to get back into form. But she did look back to her best as she travelled much better, then improved wide in the open at Awapuni and kept finding to run third with the first two getting all favours up front. Lisa Allpress sticks with him and a heavy track and a draw off the fence makes him well placed to get back into winning form. RP $4, $5 FF

Dangers:

12.Vichy  won well last start and the step to 2040m is ideal now. If inside is ok, is right in it.

10.Hi I’m Nikita  had an excise last start which has been sorted now. A slow to heavy track will suit more than most.

16.Lubaya game second last start. Needs a good ride from a wide draw though.

Race 8

Bit if a raffle race! 

In order: 5-19-2-6-11-14

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!