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Saturday, 5 December preview below

Update 7.10 a.m. The weather forecast for Trentham according to Metservice is for around 10mm of rain by 4 p.m. for Upper Hutt which can only suit Aimee’s Jewel if you are on her.

The two best bets are at Ellerslie where the forecast is good on the Dead 4 track.

Trentham

Apologies, no Heads Up this week.

The Upper Hutt weather forecast as at Friday 1.30 p.m. is: Cloudy periods. Some rain from late afternoon, clearing in the evening. Strong northerlies changing southwesterly in the evening. So the current Slow 8 track is very likely to be Slow 7 at best and heavy depending on how much rain comes before her race. If you are on Aimee’s Jewel, then a slow track I feel will be ideal for Aimee’s Jewel. If it gets worse, that can only make it tougher for the other main contender

Aimee’s Jewel was a Quality bet at $8 on the Futures market on Tuesday night with 4.6 units

I’ll post an update by 8.30 a.m. Saturday.

Bet of the day Ellerslie Race 3 11.One More Time $1.90 FF

Value bet of the Day Ellerslie Race 4 10.Gravitelle $5 FF 1st $3.70 

Quality bet was on Aimee’s Jewel at $8 on the Futures Market for the Captain Cook on Tuesday night. She is now into $4.80 FF and may start shorter if the forecast rain comes throughout the day. She isn’t a Quality bet at her current odds as the value has gone in her. Got back off a moderate tempo and did well to get where she did. 

Apologies but no updates today.

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

1.Basarwa  looked good winning on debut winning in faster time than the R74s. 1400m definitely looks a positive step and a slow to heavy track should be ok. RP $3.50, $3.70 FF

Race 2

Confidence: 3/5

7.Justaskme 1st $2.40 he was very impressive at Whanganui last start and gets in on a light weight again. There should be good speed so he can get over these again. RP $2.60, $2.60 FF

Race 4

Confidence:2/5

4.City Slicker 1st $7  up from the south is a very good mare by Shocking. She should relish the 2500m and a wet track. RP $4.00, $4.60 FF

Race 5

Good race to watch. Stormy is a nice horse but not sure about it on a Slow to heavy track with the rain about.

Race 6

Confidence: 1/5

3.Whatsup  has the four best Formpro Ratings on a heavy track and ran a game second last start. Ready to strike now and the rain can only help his chances with 3kgs off. Won his last race here over 1600m on a heavy 10. RP $5, $8 FF

Dangers in order: 9-2-7-16

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

5.Belle Plaisir  ran a strong second last start and bolted in here on a heavy track. Side Winkers go on and rates on top as well in the Formpro Ratings. RP $3.50, $3.70 FF

Dangers: 7-2-1

Race 8

This was posted on Tuesday evening at 8.15 p.m in the Wednesday selections page.

There is a an early Quality bet for Saturday at Trentham in the Futures for the Captain Cook Stakes. ( Under Feature Races )

Aimee’s Jewel at $8 in the Captain Cook Stakes ( 7.30 a.m. Wednesday- bet now closed. We can see what she opens at later this afternoon on Final Field betting. )

She is proven in heavy ground and has the action and strength to step up to this grade and win. Her win at Riccarton was outstanding. She was the only horse all day to break 11 seconds for her 200m splits from the 600 to the 400 (10.69)  and 400 to the 200m 10.97 and fastest split of the day. Comparing it to Hypnos on the same day in the Coupland’s Mile, taking into account her 1400m race compared to his 1600m race, off a similar tempo, it was a superior effort. The track is currently a heavy 11 and with average drying days till Saturday and tonight the forecast changed to showers forecast for race day, it is very likely to be a heavy 10 or Slow 9 at best. Most of these need a Dead or better track to perform at their best.  So although the $8 price was $12 earlier in the week but the forecast then was for no rain till Sunday, she is a very good bet on the Futures market as the price can’t be adjusted for scratchings, as they are with Final Field betting. I rate her a $3.50 chance so based on the Value staking plan her bet is 8/3.50 = 2.29 x 2 = 4.6 units

Since then she has opened at $6 FF and into $4.80 now with the track likely to be a slow 9 at best and worse if the forecast rain comes before her race. The more it rains, the better her chances. The of the four other main chances get worse as they want a better track.

Yes, it is a big jump in class at only her sixth start, but she just has that X factor, and Lisa Allpress will know exactly what to do from the wide barrier, especially if the inside is off, which will work out ideally for them.

Update 1.30 p.m. Friday. Trainer Trudy Keegan said she is very happy with her fitness levels and has trained sensationally at speed, so she is right on track.

1.Rock On Wood 1st $.20 and a well deserved win  has had an ideal lead up and did just what he needed to last start under a big weight. He would prefer a Dead 4 or better to use his fast finishing speed, so any rain won’t help.

9.Concert Hall  got the race run to suit at Tauranga and won easily. Goes well here but a slow or worse track is not ideal.

10.Flying Sardine  is in top form and any rain will help her chances.

Race 9

Confidence: 2/5

3.The Grinder 1st $3.50   is a good horse and if the inside is ok, can win again with Lisa Allpress up. A slow to heavy track is fine. RP $4, $4 FF

Dangers: 5-4-9

Ellerslie

Race 1

Confidence:3/5

3.Pierina 1st $2.70  ran a career best Formpro Rating last start of 111 and is ready to win again now. Her last win was here this time last year over 1400m. Drawn to get every chance in the trail or 3 back inner. RP $2.60, $2.70 FF

Dangers: 5-4-9

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

7.Dawn Parade  looked very good in his last two trials. His last he won easing down with a nice stride on him. Ready to win from the Tony Pike stable. RP $2.80, $2.60FF

Dangers:

12.Amarelinha  1st $5   drawn wide and although she is going to win races, first time round here from a wide draw makes her too short at $3.20 FF

Race 3

Confidence: 3/5

11.One More Time looked very good in his debut win after some smart trail wins. Looks the goods and the time was good on the day. Drawn to lead or get a nice sit and be the one to beat. RP $1.90, $1.90 FF

Danger:

5.Appellant 1st $32 fresh up after getting back from the wide draw, he was an eyecatcher late and his L400 21.52 and L200 10.78 were the fastest of the day. If they go hard up front, he will be charging late.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

10.Gravitelle 1st $3.50  last start at Pukekohe she worked home nicely for fifth running the second fastest L200 metres. Ready for more ground now, which is her forte. Drawn to get an ideal run. RP $4, $5.00 FF

Dangers: 5-8-2

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

7.Moana  probably would have won the Hawkes Bay Guineas if she had got out when the rider wanted to. She was travelling like the winner well out but just couldn’t get out. She was in front about 50m past the post. She has the early speed to land in the first six and from there, does look the one to beat. RP $$2.70, $2.80 in from $3.80 FF

Dangers: 1-3-2

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

15.Arriverderci 1st $3.50  is a progressive horse who won easily at Pukekohe last start. Drops to 53.5kgs although up in class. So she just needs a good beginning to get the right run and be the one to beat. RP $3.50, $3.70 FF

Dangers:

9.Ripped ran home well last start and won impressively fresh up in fast closing sectionals. Has more ring craft now.

Others: 5-8-11

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

6.Pretty To Sea 2nd $2.40 qu $26   was an unlucky fifth in the Railway here and should get the right run off an even tempo here. Leith Innes jumps back on who knows her well. RP $6.50, $9.50 FF

Dangers:

2.Spring Heat  1st $6 drawn to get a good run and Kozzi will be keen to make an impression.

Others: 7-9

Race 9

Confidence: 2/5

10.Baby Face is a nice mare who looks ready to fire up fresh. She ran a strong fifth here fresh up over 1400m and has trialed up nicely. RP $7, $12 FF

 Dangers:

9.Secret Armour got all favours last start and won well. Good run here before that to Edit and drawn to get a good run again.

Others: 2 and 5

 

 

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!