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Saturday 19 December preview below

Results: Some ridiculous amounts of money made from some subscribers today. Win bets, Multis, Quaddies and Place 6s all detailed below. Hopefully we haven’t peaked too early for Xmas!

Update 11.52 No further bets recommended

Stewart, who won the $20 multi from heads Up, has Dawn Parade and Royal Performer to return $201.60 Yes – Congratulations Stewart
Update 8 a.m. Saturday.

Good morning,

Looking forward to a good day of racing on decent surfaces. Callsign Mav and Tavi Mac should be the clash of the day. Royal Performer looks the best eachway chance all day. Dawn Parade is going to win races and this should be the first of them.

No Quality bets so far. I’ll post an update by noon with any other head to head or other bets.

Suggested late quaddie for Te Rapa for $24 for 10% yes Paid $1861

R5  1, 3, 9, 11
R6  1, 2, 5, 7, 8
R7  1, 2, 7, 13
R8  3, 11, 12

No Quality bets so far. I’ll post an update by 9 a.m. Saturday.

Heads Up is below with a preview of two big races from Awapuni, a Walk Down Memory Lane and your chance to win a $20 multi.

Dawn Parade is a very good horse and looks a strong chance. Callsign Mav has superior ratings and times to Tavi Mac but it depends on what that track is doing. If it is a 1.22.0 or faster track he will be the one to beat. The Winsurance bet for 2nd at $2.10 is probably the best bet this far out as he should be first or second. Royal Performer is ready to win and looks a nice eachway chance.

Bet of the Day Te Rapa Race 2 1.Dawn Parade $2.10 FF 1st $1.80

Value Bet of the Day Te Rapa Race 5 9.Royal Performer $6.50 FF 1st $6

Speed map Special Awapuni Race 7 1.Callsign Mav $3.00 FF 2nd

Te Rapa

Race 1

Confidence:2/5

1.Packing Rockstar  ran a very good 4th last start at Ellerslie in an open handicap over 1200m. He had to run the fastest L800, 600, 400 and 200 all day to do it. he is a big strong fella suited to 1400 metres. From the inside he maps to trail a moderate tempo and with the 3kgs off, if he can get out and lead after turning in, it will be an interesting finish with Elephant being heavily backed. RP $2.90, $3.10 FF

Dangers:

5.Elephant  looked good winning at Ellerslie in a good speed rating and the 2nd horse won well next up, My World. Steps up in class  and drawn out so will likely snag or risk getting caught wide.

3.Blood Warrior  no luck when held up last start. Drawn to get the last go at them.

 

Race 2

Confidence: 3/5

1.Dawn Parade 1st $1.80 looked good running second ( gap to third) at Ellerslie to the smart Amarelinha in an above average speed rating. He obviously didn’t like racing right handed and looked much more tractable left handed winning his trials. The jump to 1400m suits ideally and drawn to slide over and get a good position trainer Tony Pike has a very good opinion of him. RP $1.80, $2.10 FF

Dangers:

4.Moana  disappointed at Ellerslie after a good run in a stronger 3yo race. Rider said she would improve with that so looks the main danger.

Race 3

Confidence:2/5

5.Darci Diva  ran a solid second on debut over 1200m and the step to 1400m looks ideal with his action. Gets 3kgs off again and drawn to get all favours. RP $4

Dangers:

2.Mongolian Wings 1st $3.20 began well on debut but was caught 3 wide on a decent tempo and did well to only tire late for 4th. Drawn well here and will be improved from that.

1.Tannahill two nice runs in stronger fields last campaign on heavy tracks. Trialled up well when wide and ran home well but has a wet track action and the Norton bit going on to help him race kinder, so from a wider draw is beatable.

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

6.Roc Cha  won well at Rotorua beating some handy horses. She has put in the occasional top effort. Three starts back here she sat 3 wide in the open and still ran third. Drawn to get a good run on the pace and may even lead and from there is an eachway chance. RP $5, $7.50 FF

Dangers:

1.Master Park looked good winning his trial beating Callsign Mav. Negative is the wide draw so will need a flyer to cross them.

9.Saintly Way  is an upset chance with a good run likely. Has been doing ok off tough runs.

Race 5

Confidence:2/5

9.Royal Performer 1st $6 would have really pushed the winner, Pierina, at Ellerslie if he had got clear air 200m out. But he had to be hauled off heels and wasn’t ridden out. His best form in Hong Kong was over 1600 and 1650m so third up, where he gets in with a light weight, and with an even speed likely, should get his chance to power over these. He does have early speed and could land about 5th or 6th in running. RP $4.50, $6.50 FF

Dangers:

11.Rhaegar  drops back to 54kgs after lumping big weights so he will notice that. Drawn to lead and if left alone, will be hard to run down.

Race 6

Confidence: 1/5

1.Virtuoso Lad has been rating well in R74 races. Drops back to R65 here and steps to 1600m for the first time. The way he is racing suggests he may be ready for it now if Chad can give him a very quiet run and dash late. RP $5, $8 FF

Dangers:

8.Tuppence good run last start and ready now.

2.Landry two good runs and drawn to get all favours.

7.Baby Face  1st $14  looked in need of the run at Ellerslie. Has won here over 1600m in good time.

Race 7

Confidence: 2/5

2.Airlington Gold 1st $6  good second fresh up and the step to 1600m looks ideal. Leith Innes jumps on and from the draw should get an ideal run. RP $4

Dangers:

7.Milford nice galloper dropping out of a harder 3yo race. Opie should be able to give him a good run and looks the main danger.

1.Foogayzee good third in a stronger maiden field last start. Fitter now too.

13.Finest Wine The way she unwound late for third here on debut, running the fastest last 200m, shows she is only going to get better as the distances increase, just as he breeding suggests. Wide draw no help though. If they go hard, could upset them.

Race 8

Confidence: 1/5

12.Monlula  ran a strong finishing fifth in the Derby. Second up he won really well over 1600m. last start he got back and ran on nicely over 1600m. He needs a middle distance now. Drawn wide and will get back, but with an even tempo likely, can swamp these late. RP $5

Dangers:

11.Gone West  1st $6  may have need that last run after a 25 day break. Opie jumps back on from a good draw.

3.Dance Card drawn to get all favours and drops back in class.

 

Awapuni 

Race 1

Confidence:3/5

6.Sumi  looked the winner a long way out last start and the speed rating was the same as the R65 race and better than the R74 race. The negative is the tempo. She will have to snag back from the wide draw and there doesn’t look to be an even tempo so will need a track into it. If she gets it, can get over the favourite.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

1.Challa won well at Hastings in this grade and gets 4kgs off again. Should land close and be the one to beat. RP $2.50, $2.40 FF

Dangers:

7.Fiano  can upset with the light weight and good draw. Bolted in here second up last year.

Race 3 best watched.

Race 4

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race

7.All In Stitches  2nd  did well to run 4th two starts back and didn’t fire on the wet track at Trentham. He can run time and with 3kgs off, he gets in on a winning weight. RP $6, $9 FF

Race 5

Confidence: 2/5

3.No Compromise 1st $5 was a decisive winner last start in this grade and Lisa knows what he is capable of now, so from the good draw, should get every chance to go back to back. RP $42.0, $4.60 FF

Dangers: 9-4-2

Race 6

Confidence: 1/5

5.Initiative 1st $10   won very well two back over 1600m and was held up and ran on late next up. Good mare and can get over these late. RP $5

Dangers:

11.Aquilla Star  good run fresh on a heavy track and drawn to get a better run on a preferred better surface.

3.That’s Incranibull  fitter now and should get an ideal run.

Race 7

Confidence:3/5

1.Callsign Mav 2nd- and beaten by a very good, well trained galloper.  won the Tarzino over 1400m fresh up in fast time beating Tavi mac by 2.5 lengths. Then he ran 3rd behind melody belle in the 1600m Windsor Park Plate – very strong form on decent surfaces. He trialed up really well going to the line strongly to almost win. He maps to land 2nd outer on a moderate tempo outside Tavis Court. Nicely placed in a weaker Group 2 race and rates 5 lengths better than Tavi Mac on a Dead or better track so looks hard to beat. He has been training and trailing in Visor blinkers and a nose band and Jonathan Riddell said he is a different horse – ‘he is happier’. RP $2.40, $3 FF. $2.10 for Winsurance ( Money back) for 2nd. Money back

Dangers:

2.Tavi Mac  1st $2 should get an ideal trail or may end up 3 back inner if the rail is ok for Callsign Mav as he will want to put him 3 back inner. It would need to rain to even things up with Mav but none is forecast.

Race 8

Confidence:2/5

4.Hunta Pence  1st $13 showed great staying power to be on a solid tempo and still kick and win very well. Drawn to get a good run and if in the same form will be hard to beat.

Dangers:

7.Nymph Monte  ran on strongly late behind Hunta Pence last start and drawn to get all favours.

5.Sir Nate  tough win last week and drops in weight from a good draw again.

6.Duplicity good run off a wide run last start. Nicely weighted and tough.

Race 9

Confidence:2/5

5.Hydro Express  top run last week when 3 wide in the open , lost a plate and still ran a top second. Drawn out again but with a better run, can do it. RP $5 Scratched

Dangers:

2.Dedoje  good run fresh up and looks a definite improver from a good draw.

3.Podkast 1st $9, quaddie $6268, Place 6 $6268  good second fresh up and drawn to get a good run. Won second up last year.

1.Langkawi good run at Ellerslie and with a good run can do it.

 

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!