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Wednesday 23 December preview below

Update: David’s Greyhound selections are here

Update 1.10 p.m. 

Head to heads:

Race 1 Civilised $1.90 to beat Fabulous Flight. ( Civilised rates better than FF and should get a better run. )

Suggested multi: The Head to head above with Race 2 6.Shang Chi $1.95 place, and Lightning Field $1.70 FF win $10 returns $62.90 

 

Good morning,

Some interesting racing today. The one I’m looking forward to seeing is race 2 with Shang Chi. He looks the part and trailed really well, but needs to jump on terms. Lightning Field looks very well placed in race 3. Rockspell  looks the part also in race 4.

No Quality bets. An update will be posted by 2 p.m.

Bet of the day  Race 3 1.Lightning Field $1.75 FF 3rd after getting his chance

Value bet of the day Race 2 6.Shang Chi $5.50 FF 4th- Probably would have won with a clear crack.

Suggested late quaddie: $22.50 for 5% Yes $1909 and $95 return 

R6   3, 8, 9, 11, 12
R7   1, 4, 5
R8   3, 5, 8, 11, 12
R9   2, 3, 5, 11, 12, 13

Suggested early quaddie for $9 for 50%

R2   6
R3   1
R4   4, 7, 15
R5   1, 4, 9, 10, 11, 13

Matamata

Race 1

The speed map shows  Bolt From The Blue leading with Civilised trailing and Roll The Gold second outer. Slow pace likely suiting runners in first half of the race.

 

Confidence:2/5

5.Civilised last start was checked at a vital stage and ran on well for fourth. Alongside him was impressive next up winner Royal Performer. Drawn to land in the trail behind Bolt From The Blue and get a cosy trail. From there, he should be a good eachway chance. RP $4.50, $5.50 FF

Dangers:

1.Roll The Gold 1st $5  won here in January in good time over this distance. Won his recent trial without being touched. Giving weight away to all of them though.

Race 2

Confidence: 2/5

 6.Shang Chi in his first trial led all the way to win well. Two trails back at Te Teko drew wide and sat 7th 4 wide in the open and kept up a strong gallop to finish 2nd to the smart Amarelinha and 4th was Dragon Queen, who also won recently. Then in his next trial drew wide, snagged back and came home under a grip down the outer for fourth. On debut he was slow away, got back on the inner and they backed right off midrace, so had no chance. But once out and balanced up stretched out strongly running the 2nd fastest last 200m 11.49. he is a very nice looking galloper who cost $120k. From the good draw, if he can jump like he has in his two of his three trials, he should land in the first six. From there, against a weak field of maidens, he will get his chance to get over them. RP $3.80, $5 FF

 

Race 3

Confidence:3/5

1.Lightning Field  fresh up was unlucky when held up in the trail after showing early speed, and charged too late for second beating Finn McCool, ( 3rd) who beat him next up at Rotorua when he got the winning advantage on the turn. Third in that race at Rotorua was Redegast who won well next up. Drawn to get an ideal run and the 1400m is perfect for him. Opie will give him every chance and this nice looking 4yo looks set to win. RP $1.90, $1.75 FF

 

Race 4

Confidence:2/5

15.Rockspell in his last trial was 4th 3wwide open and was under a hold right to the line for fourth and could have won it easily- the others were under a ride. Co-trainer Andrew Scott mentioned on Trackside on Saturday that this was a horse to watch out for and he does look the part. RP $3.20, $3.40 FF

Dangers:

4.Sacred Armour  looked good winning his two trails and looks the main danger.

7.Caroline Reaper strong second in excellent SR last start. Wide draw no help though

Race 5

Confidence:1/5

13.Maria Farina 1st $10 looked good winning her last trial coming from fourth and drawing away late. Drawn out but there should be a strong tempo in this and she could swamp them late with a good track into it. RP $6

Race 6

The speed map shows early speed from 1-5- and 14 and an even tempo likely suiting all runners.

Confidence:2/5

11.Campionessa 1st $3 got the ideal run on debut and burned at both ends in the best of the four 1215 races. She ran her first 400m in 24.59, faster than most in the R65 race, yet was still able to come home in better time than most of the R65 runners. So she is definitely up to this grade and has drawn to get a winning run and 1400m, the way she gallops and found the line hard in her win, says she will relish it.The negative is she is a 3yo filly up against experienced fit horses. RP $3.30, $3.40FF

Dangers:

9.Talamo raced in Australia and won fresh up over 1400m showing early speed to sit 2nd outer and bolted away 200m out to win easily in a good speed rating. Three starts later he ran in the Group 2 Sandown Guineas and worked 3 wide early, then eased 3rd outer and only really tired in the last 100 metres. No trials form since coming back but gets 3kgs off from the in- form Wiremu Pinn up. Punting stable so market moves will tell how ready he is. The Visor Blinkers going on suggest he may be ready to fire fresh up again. Currently $6.50 FF with only #13 as a scratching.

12.Escudo won strongly here fresh up beating Moana, a very nice 3yo. She drew wide in a stronger 3yo race next up and was caught wide. Freshened up and 1400m looks ideal for her.

3.Vincenza  is a nice galloper and ran a nice 4th in her trial alongside Brando. Drawn to get a good run.

8.Vincere won well in a handy speed rating last start. Should be further improved by that – fitter third up and gets 4kgs off from a good draw.

 

Race 7

Speed map suggests at least an even tempo with four runners wanting to go forward.

Confidence: 2/5

1.La Mia Stella good run fresh up in a harder R74 race and will be fitter for this. Her last two wins came here over 1400 metres and drawn to get all favours with 2kgs off.

Dangers:

5.She’s A Lady ran a fair race right handed last start behind a good horse in Super Pursuit. Her two wins have been

4.Thunder  1st $5 had a lot of money for him to say he could win last start after some average efforts. Whether it was the better track , the Bosson factor or top trackwork, he did very well to win breaking 11 seconds for his last 200 metres – the best all day taking into account the better tempo than other races.. If they go hard, which they could do, he could swamp them late.

Race 8

The speed map shows an even tempo.

Confidence:1/5 in an open race.

8.Heart Of The Ocean  ran home strongly for fourth last start running the best closing sectionals in all categories. The step to 2000m looks ideal being out of a Zabeel mare. Drawn wide but there looks to be an even tempo with few on pace runners. Just needs the right track into it. RP $5, $4.80 FF

Dangers:

3.Military Step is an obvious include with his two solid seconds and Opie up. No anchor though.

11. Hakuna Matata  did very well to win left handed at Rotorua. No good right handed at Ellerslie when they went flat out all the way. Back left5 handed, with 3kgs off, can upset.

12.She Speeds maps to get an ideal run in behind a decent speed and looks ready now.

Race 9

Confidence:1/5 in an open race.

12.Lonely  was held up till too late and worked home nicely in tight quarters next up. 2000mis ideal third up from a good draw.

Dangers:

13.Beaune 1st $5 ran home in the second best sectionals from the rear last start over 1600m. 2000m ideal now.

3.Veni Vici  good 3rd here last start and maps to get a good run.

2.The Green Dragon  goes best here and ready for 2000m now.

5.Seven Aajes good fifth last start. Ready to peak now.

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!