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Boxing Day preview below

Update: No further bets.

Update 8.30 a.m. Boxing Day

It looks like a Te Akau benefit day with many favourites in races (And it sure was !) . Vamos Bebe 1st $2.20  looks the best of them with a faster tempo very likely. Brando 1st $1.90 really showed his class last start and should get a good run off a decent tempo. Hydropexpress is primed to win at Awapuni.

I’ve put in a suggested quaddie for both Northern meetings. There are $30k Guaranteed First Fours on all races at Ellerslie. Usually it is best to wait till there is a jackpot out of them but that may not happen today with the favourites looking strong in most races.

I’ll post an update by noon with any Head to Heads or other bets.

Update 5 p.m. Thursday. Had a few queries about Khufu who has been punted heavily to win the Karaka Millions – now $5.

He certainly looks the goods and his recent trial at Cambridge was outstanding after analysing the sectionals, which have been clearly the best ever run there. Tony Pike will look at a couple of options to qualify him for the KM.

Trial time: 45.99

Last 600 32.21

Last 400 21.67

Last 200 11.34

Splits: 13.78, 10.54, 10.33, 11.34

Boxing Day preview ( next update by 9 a.m. Boxing Day )

Heads Up below and we preview the Zabeel and you get a chance to win a $20 multi bet like Stewart did last week to win over $200

There were going to be two Quality bets but one has been scratched , Monlula in race 2. The other is Hydro Express in Race 7 at Awapuni … 1.5 units at $6 FF

Bet of the day Ellerslie Race 5 10.Vamos Bebe $2.50 FF 1st $2.20 

Value bet of the day Awapuni Race 7 5.Hydroexpress $6 FF ( Quality bet at 1.5 units) ( Now $5.50 ) 3rd $2

Speed map Special Ellerslie Race 6 2.Brando $1.90 FF 1st $1.90 

Sneaky of the Day Ellerslie Race 2 8.Cassio $14 FF

Multi of the day is Vamos Bebe and Hydroexpress $10 returns $137.50

Kevin, who won the Heads Up $20 multi has Hydroexpress and Vamos Bebe to return $275

Suggested late quaddie for Ellerslie: $14.40 for 5% yes Paid $981 

R7   1, 8, 9
R8   2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 12
R9   1, 5, 9, 10
R10   5, 6, 9, 15

Awapuni late quaddie: $8.40 for 5%

R6   1, 2, 4, 10
R7   5
R8   1, 2, 8
R9 ( Field)    1, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17

Ellerslie

Race 1

The speed map shows plenty of early speed and may set up for a closer.

Confidence:1/5 in a tricky race where you can make a case for six of the runners.

5.Raposa Rapida 1st $7  will have to snag back from the widest draw which could be a plus. There looks to be plenty of speed here. Two starts back, ridden cold, he was too good over this distance. This is harder but he does look the best eachway value in the race with how this race maps. RP $5, $7 FF

Dangers:

4.Star Of Bombay  won very well here last start. Should get the right run in behind the even tempo and get its chance again.

Race 2

The speed map shows Cassio setting a fast tempo again with a few looking to get handy, so it should set up for a closer.

Confidence:1/5 in a race with many chances.

8.Cassio  simply ran them into the ground here last start. he goes up in class but drops to 53.5kgs from 55.5kgs. He will know doubt try and do the same and the way he stuck on to win last start, he could do it again. RP $10, $16 FF

Dangers: 

2.Swords Drawn  1st $3with a quiet cosy run likely with Opie up, will be charging late.

1.Orakei Overlord  is tough and back in class with 2kgs off, will be right in it.

11.Couturiere tough run here last start and stuck well for third. Peaking now.

Race 3

Confidence: 1/5 in a  good race to watch

2.Palamos was a bit green and lost a plate but still managed to win well. Needs a good ride from Opie from the awkward draw but if he gets it, will be the one to beat.

Race 4

Confidence: 3/5

11.Entriviere 1st $1.50  has looked very good in her two wins and was beaten by a slow tempo last start. Looked good leading and being run down by the best sprinter in the country, Levante, in a recent trial. Likely to take a sit with five runners inside her looking to lead or be on it. With the fast tempo she can come at them late with the nice weight advantage. RP $1.90, $1.55 FF

Danger:

3.Ripped  charged home here late for 2nd to a smart horse. That was over 1400m and he drops back to 1200m here. But the solid tempo should play into his hooves.

9.Showboat  good run last start- drawn well with a nice weight and fitter now.

 

Race 5

Confidence: 3/5

10.Vamos Bebe 1st $2.20 almost got up last start from the back when they ran the first 600m in 35.57 and came home off the front in 34.24, which suited on pace runners. She had to run the fastest closing sectionals all day to almost get up.  This time, with more speed likely, they should go around 35 seconds or better for the first 600 metres making it easier for her to use her powerful finish to winning effect. Maps to land 3 back inner behind the even tempo and should get her chance to get out and beat these. Negative is she is up in class and is the lowest rated. But she is a class mare and they will be keen to win with her to get her rating up for better class races. RP $2.20, $2.50 FF

Dangers:

1.Its Destiny’s Child  ran a strong 3rd last start in a stronger field. Drawn to get all favours. Gives 7kgs to the favourite though.

9.Madam Hass beat Vamos Bebe last start here and is 3kgs better off. Bur she got all favours there on a moderate tempo. Drawn out here and will have to work harder in the first 600 metres.

Race 6

The speed map shows plenty of early speed and an even to fast tempo likely.

Confidence: 3/5

2.Brando  1st $1.90 really stepped up last start when he was asked for 100% 200 metres out and responded like a very good horse. His last 200 meters of 11.03 was easily the best on the day and he was eased down late. With plenty of good speed under him here, he is likely to jump and look to slot in midfield or behind it and come with the last run at them. RP $1.90, $1.85 FF

Danger:

6.Tokorangi is a good filly freshened up from Riccarton. Will get back but the good tempo should allow her to be a realistic chance if fit enough.

Race 7

The speed map shows plenty of early speed and an even tempo likely.

Confidence:2/5

9. Mai Tai 1st $7  is a mare I have always liked. She was a class above them when winning right handed at Tauranga. Next up ran on well over 1200m. Then was beaten by a moderate tempo at Awapuni. Last start landed in the right spot and was a dominant winner. She will relish the 1500m and maps to land in the first 6 in running and that could be the winning advantage, with Danielle up, over the favourites. RP $5, $8 Ff

Dangers:

1.Super Strike  is an above average horse who is going to win more races. His sectionals at his last four starts indicate that. Last start they tried to beat him y slowing the tempo, but Andrew Calder was awake to that and got going early. He still won with authority and had to run the fastest closing sectionals all day in all categories to do it and was wide as well. The negatives are his 60kg and drawing 2 as he was slow away last start here and if he begins the same way he is going to be back on the inner as the map shows. So do we really want to be on a $3 chance back on the inner in a 16 horse field?

8.Edit  looks the obvious danger getting 6kgs off the favourite. Drawn to get a good run.

Race 8

Confidence:2/5

6.Amarelinha 1st $2.90  was very impressive winning here last start beating next up impressive winner Dawn Parade. Her Speed Rating was the second best all day and there was a gap to the rest. She will look to get in one off midfield or behind it with the long run to the first bend, and she has the looks and the breeding to beat these. RP $2.70, $2.80 FF

Dangers:

5.Fleetwood Maca  did very well off a tough run for third here last start. Drawn to get a much better run.

4.Helsinki  two strong seconds and will land on the pace.

12.Needle And Thread  closed off hard in good sectionals last start1600m looks ideal from a  good draw.

7.Cheaperthandivorce looked good drawing away to win on debut in a good speed rating. 1600m should suit as well.

Race 9

The speed map shows a moderate tempo.

The speed map shows Gino Severini and In a Twinkling likely to share the pace with Tiptronic and maybe On The Rocks hunting out from a wide draw to get on the pace. A moderate tempo likely suiting runners in the first half of the field.

Confidence: 2/5

1.Rock On Wood 4th after getting chopped late   ran 7th here in the Bonecrusher over 2000m in a sprint home. he was a bit lost coming round the bend and down the straight. Won really well at Trentham and drawn to be 3 back inner and from there, should be able to come through them which will suit him better. The one to beat in a good race. RP $3.80, $4.20 FF

Dangers:

5.In A Twinkling  is in the best form of his life. He could get a soft lead here, which often happens here in WFA 2000m races. If he does, he will be the one to beat.

9.Concert Hall  1st $5chased home Rock On Wood at Trentham and she is looking for 2000m now. Just needs a good ride from the wide draw.

10.Supera  ran home well last start. 2000m is the ideal distance for her. It is her last race run and if they go hard enough, could go out on a winning note.

Race 10

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race.

9.Tabata  is a good mare who needed her fresh up run. Nice galloper and drawn to get a winning run and is ready to win.

Dangers:

6.Loose Cannon 1st $8   has been very unlucky in his two runs back and at least he has drawn out so should be able to avoid being held up. Just needs a decent tempo to get over these late.

5.Silent Truth  almost got up for us last start and good odds. Fitter for that run.

15.Laurant strong second last start. Fitter now and drawn well.

 

 

Awapuni

Some tricky open races here.

Race 1

Confidence: 2/5

8.Ruby’s Landed  looked good winning her last trial and Lisa Allpress will give her every chance. Drawn to get every chance. RP $3.60, $3.90 FF

Race 2

Confidence:2/5

3.Casaquinman  last start was slow away but did very well to get up for third running the best closing sectionals. If he can begin better, he should get the right run with an even tempo up front and can get over these late on a decent surface. RP $5, $6.50 FF

Race 6

Confidence: 2/5

1.Waisake is a nice stayer and always gives his best. Gets 2kgs off and should get the right run.

4.Cobochon  two solid placings over 1600m and from a good draw, should get every chance. Looks like 2100m will suit now.

2.Rockoneve  good run in harder race last start. Lisa Allpress will give her every chance.

Race 7

Confidence: 3/5 Quality bet 1.5 units

5.Hydroexpress won on debut here over 1000m on a heavy track. Since then her greenness has cost her. But after a spell, she has come back looking bigger and stronger and racing better. Inn both starts she has run the best closing sectionals in all categories. Her last start was an indicator that she is ready to win when planted 3 and 4 wide to the turn in the open, and still ran the best sectionals. Sarah McNab knows her very well and can use the persuader in both hands which she may need to be able to do. Drawn to land about 6th or 7th behind a decent tempo and get out at the right time to get over these third up and peaking. A slow track will be ideal. RP $4, $6 FF

Race 8

Confidence: 1/5

2.Beefeater  was a dominant winner here last start. gets 2kgs of again and should get the right run in behind the leaders. RP $4.80, $4.20 FF

Dangers:

8.Hartley  drops to a winning weight after being nailed here last start. Fitter as well.

1.Deerfield if left alone will be hard to run down.

Race 9

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race and really is a field job for the quaddie.

14.Sanibel ran home in 2nd best L200 last start. Step to 1550m ideal third up.

5.Horopito  ran on well last start. Very fit.

15.Regal Reward  two good runs – fitter now from a good draw.

3.Cetus  capable of winning with the right run and drawn to get that.

Wingatui 

Race 4

Confidence: 2/5

2.Kilowatt  was held up until too late last start on a tighter track. This track suits ideally and just needs a good ride to beat these. RP $4.50, $6.00 FF

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!