Update 11.55 a.m. No further bets
The Awapuni track has come up a Dead 4 on a fine day so a 1.10 track for 1200m, which makes it much better to do the form on. Kumara has come up a Dead 6 and with the forecast now good, so I have done the form there. Fisherman’s Blues looks the best placed there.
I’ll post an update by noon with any head to heads etc.
Bet of the Day Race 7 1.Beauden $2.30 FF Good win
Value bet of the Day Race 3 5.Signora Nera $5.50 FF
Awapuni quaddie $8 for 20%
R5 4, 6, 9, 10, 12
R6 2, 3
R8 1, 4, 7, 8
Kumara suggested late quaddie for 20% for $9.60 FF
R6 1, 2, 4, 9
R7 4, 12
R8 6, 7
R9 1, 2, 7
Flemington Quaddie for $14.40 for 5%
R6 3, 4, 5, 6
R7 1, 2, 3, 7
R8 4, 10, 13
R9 1, 3, 4, 5, 10, 15
4.Marotiri Belle last start here set an even tempo and was run down by the winner with 5kgs less. This time she is likely to have the Hottie on her tail with 2.5kgs less and she will be fitter. RP $3.50, $4
8.The Hottie is a good filly and won well last start. This is tougher though and there looks to be a bit of pressure in it. The likely quinella though.
7.Gurtlyn won well last start and gets in on a light weight.
The speed map shows plenty of speed again with six runners looking to lead or be on it.
4.Lincoln Falls looked back to his best when he won here fresh up. With a similar tempo very likely, he should be able to settle off them and come with the last run again. RP $3.20, $3.80 FF
2.Cavallo Veloce drawn well and will find this easier.
9.Scotch good win fresh up. Drawn to get a good run.
The speed map shows good speed across the field and an even speed
Confidence:2/5 in a race where most will be looking for a good blow out for Trentham
5.Signora Nera ran a strong third here last start over 1600m in a good speed rating and had to run the fastest last 200m of all three 1600m races to run third in an on pace race. Fourth was the smart Key. With a freshener and from the good draw, she will be suited by the 1400m and looks well placed. RP $4.50, $5.50 Ff
1.Supreme Khan will likely go forward and be on pace and be a chance from there. Likely to need this though with Trentham in mind.
11.Sumi is a very good filly also and will likely get back and run on well with bigger races at Trentham in mind
The speed map shows decent speed early and an even tempo.
Confidence: 2/5 in a tricky race
3.Hartley won very well here last start and gets in on 51kgs, a winning weight again. Drawn out but the field is not big so with the early speed from many runners, they should be able to slot in one off then use that light weight and race fitness to beat these home. RP $3.50, $4 FF
The speed map shows and even speed suiting all runners.
4.King Farouk strong finishing third last start in an on pace race to Mai Tai who has won again since. Needs luck from the wide draw but if gets it, will be hardest to keep out.
6.Sword Of Fire solid third at Ellerslie and looks better left handed. Lisa will give him every chance.
10.Vincere solid second last start to a good horse. Drawn to get all favours.
For quaddies include 9.Kelly’s Inspiration and 12.Gameout, both good runs last start here.
The speed map shows an even tempo.
Confidence:2/5 one of the two below should win this.
2.Hasabro put in a top effort for 6th last start in a stronger field when caught 3 wide on the pace in the open. Drawn to get a better run and needs more ground now. RP $4
3.No Compromise maps to get a winning run with Lisa Allpress up and is in top form.
When the speed map shows a lot of red tape then it is going to be race that will nearly always suit on pace runners.
1.Beauden got back to his best last start when clearing out 400m out and eased down to win. His speed rating and sectionals back it up as well. So he is back to his best which is very good. There is no pace in this race so he can lead or sit on it and do the same again and get a break on them on the turn and be very hard to beat. RP $2.10, $2.20 FF
3.The Good Fight will need the run for Trentham but should get all favours with a light weight.
6.Vee Cee ran on well last start behind Beauden and has the blinkers going on.
The speed map shows a dew going forward and an even tempo likely.
8.Not Santa was run down by the smart Lady Rudolph last start over 1400m. The step to 1600m looks ideal third up from a good draw. RP $5, $8 FF
7.Wononeohwon has shown very good finishing ability to win his last two. Drawn to get the same last run at them.
1.Skarloey gets 2kgs off and maps to get an ideal run. The upsetter.
4.That’s Incranibull has the blinkers going on which he needs, and third up is the right time to put them on.
8.Scala Sancta did very well fresh up when caught 3 wide on the pace and fought right to the line. Nice looking 3yo Sacred Falls filly who has drawn well and should be suited by the tight track and 1150m. RP $3.30, $3.50 FF
4.Meara Mary always travelled like the winner at Reefton on Thursday and won easily. Drawn to get a nice tuck in behind again and can go back to back. RP $3.50, $4.40 FF
1.Shadow King with 3kgs off in good form looks the best placed.
2.Oceans Away drawing the inside is always a plus for him.
4.Leitrem Lad has been putting the times to win again.
9.The Buffer has been looking for more ground.
4.Overtheriver ran a game second last start. Tough as they come and drawn to get an ideal run- set for this.
12.Queen Jetsun drawn to get a good run and capable of pushing the higher weighted runners.
7.Fishermans Blues looked very ready to win on Thursday and after getting a good run led on the turn bolting, and cruised away to win a very good speed rating and his closing sectionals compared very well with shorter races on the day. And that was against a stronger field than this. So with Kozzi on board, claiming 1kgs back in class, he does look very well placed. RP $3.20
6.Pondering is just the type from Dummy’s stable to improve 50 lengths from a fresh up run. He has ability.
1.Vee Twelve with 4kgs off and a decent time in the lead, could hold on.
7.Cannoli racing well and drawn to get every chance.
2.My Hugo improver’s run fresh up and ready to win.