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Friday 15 January preview below

Tauranga

Good morning,

I didn’t run a Formpro Punters Club Syndicate as I’m attending a non-racing function today.

It is a good day of racing with some interesting races. An early preview of Saturday will be posted by 11 a.m. No Heads Up today. Back again next Friday.

No Quality bets today- just not enough value on good confidence bets.

Bet of the Day Race 1 7.Millefiori $2.40 FF 1st $3.60

Value Bet of the Day Race 3 9.Force Of Will $5 FF 1st $5.30

Suggested late quaddie for $25.60 yes paid $802

R5   1, 2, 5, 9
R6   3, 4, 6, 7
R7   3, 5
R8   1, 3, 5, 6, 7, 9, 12, 13

Race 1

Confidence:3/5

7.Millefiori 1st $3.60 looked strong leading all the way on debut beating race rival Sneaky Shark. That was over 1100m and the 1200m looks like it will suit even better. Drawn to lead and I can’t see them handing up so she should get a decent lead and be hard to run down. RP $2.20, $2.40 FF

Dangers:

1.Sneaky Shark likely to sit outside Millefiori and fight out second.

2.Mr Blue Sky nice second on debut from a wide raw but will likely look to slot in one off behind the above two somewhere but with a moderate tempo likely, should be outsprinted by them.

Race 2

The speed map shows an even speed suiting all runners

Confidence: 2/5

3.Je Suis Tiger 1st $3.60  tough run last start when 3 wide in the open and did better than race rival Acutus who had a much better run. Won at this meeting last year leading all the way and drawn to get the right run. Rated strongly at Pukekohe when 3 lengths behind Media Sensation in the Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes. RP $4.50, $5 FF

Danger:

1.Acutus ran on late last start alongside Je Suis Tiger but had a much better run. The plus is he is fitter now and gets 4kgs off.

4.Showboat  drawn to get an ideal run and gets 2kgs off.

Race 3

The speed map shows an even tempo.

Confidence: 2/5

9.Force Of Will 1st $5 is a very good looking galloper with a nice action. She has run the sectionals to say she can win more, so just needs a good run from the wide draw to be right in it with the nice weight advantage. And the speed map shows at least an even speed so that should suit her. RP $4, $5 FF

Dangers:

1.Mouton is the obvious danger after leading and being run down in a stronger field last start.

Race 4

The speed map shows  good early speed out wide and an even tempo suiting all runners.

Confidence: 2/5 two horses look set to fight this out

1.Giant Gem top 2nd two starts back and was held up at a vital time last start and ran on ok for a 1.5L 7th. Drawn to land closer from the inside draw, probably 3 back inner with the good early speed out wide, and should get the gaps – ready to win with the blinkers going on. RP $4

Dangers:

6.Dawn Parade looked very good winning last start left handed. He did things wrong right handed though at Ellerslie. Tony Pike and Leith Innes may have him sorted out now though as they wouldn’t start him this way round unless they were confident he could handle it.

Race 5

The speed map shows good speed across the field.

Confidence:2/5

9.Little Belle  did very well in a harder field last start when 3 wide in the open and fought hard right to the line for third in good time. Drawn out again which is the concern but with early luck with her speed, if she can get into a good position she will be hard to beat with 2kgs off again. RP $4.50

Dangers:

2.Duneagle 1st $6 ran a good 4th last start and is likely to lead again. Fitter and the one to run down.

5.Jimmy Five ran a good fifth at Ellerslie last start. Won well here before that.

1.Glittering Armour ran on well fresh up after being too fresh. Drawn to get all favours.

Race 6

The speed map shows Weaponry leading at a moderate tempo suiting on pace runners.

Confidence: 2/5

4.Royal Performer 1st $2.50  bolted in two starts back in good time then just didn’t get things to go his way in a stronger field last start run in fast time. Should be able to slot in one off and be hard to beat.  RP $3.00

Dangers:

6.Vichy won well over 1600m before failing on a track too slow for her over a middle distance. Freshened up and drawn to get all favours on a nice weight.

3.Weaponry ran a game second to Rock On Wood two back then battled on the slow track last start. gets 4kgs poff and should get a good run on the pace.

7.Nasha Riva goes best here and won well last start. gets in on a nice weight.

Race 7

The speed map shows an even speed.

Confidence: 2/5

5.Triomphe 1st $3 won very well two back then covered too much ground in the stronger Dunstan Feeds race last start but came home well in the third fastest last 200 metres. This is easier and Danielle won on him in that last win. Will go back but there looks to be enough tempo up front for them to track into it and use his powerful finish to get over these. RP $2.50

Dangers:

3.Patsy’s Lass did very well last start here when doing the most work in the race and still won. Tough and that counts for a lot.

Race 8

Confidence: 1/5 in an open race.

1.Royal Charm has rated an FR 101 and 102 in his last two runs, the top two in the race. Meets Rusavy better off in the weights and just need a good run to be the one to beat in an open field. RP $4

Dangers:

3.Celebre  1st $18  quaddie $802  won strongly last start and John bell has a high opinion of him. He looks the part and has the draw to land in a good position.

6.Rusavy won well at Ellerslie last start. Drawn to get a good run again.

9.Ripper Of A Dream won well last start and gets a good draw to get the right run.

13.Volitivo close third off a good run last start behind Rusavy. Needs a good ride from the draw but is a nice galloper.

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!