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Saturday 16 January preview below

Good morning,

Some top racing at Trentham today. I really like Quattro Quinta. He is a  fine looking Te Akau galloper who has run the times and sectionals to say he is very good. Brando is peaking for his big day and has just kept improving strongly for this. Our Hail Mary is in the right race with the right rider. I’m getting a bit cold on Avantage at that price. Just nervous about her after getting all worked up at Ellerslie but being fresh she was able to win off a perfect run. She may just be a bit flat in the last 100m especially if she has had a wide run and Tavi Mac has been tucked away in behind. Cabochon could upset them in race 2.

I’ve been through the Wingatui fields and just can’t get any confidence in the fields there, so pass.

No Quality bets today.

 

Trentham

Bet of the Day Race 4 1.Quattro Quinta $1.95 1st $2

Value bet of the day Race 7 9.Our Hail Mary $4.80 FF  1st $4.20

Big Value Bet Race 2 7.Cabochon $13 FF

Multi of the Day Race 4 1.Quattro Quinta and Race 6 1. Brando $10 returns $32.10

 

Suggested early quaddie $12 for 20%

R2  1, 2, 4, 6, 7
R3   4, 5, 6
R4   1
R5    3, 4, 5, 7

Suggested late quaddie $12 for 20%

R6   1
R7   1, 2, 9
R8    1, 8, 9, 10
R9   8, 9, 10, 11, 13

Race 1

The speed map shows an even tempo suiting all runners.

Confidence: 2/5

2.Super Pursuit is in top form and has a powerful finish when saved for the last run. If he can get that here, which looks likely, he will be very hard to beat. His FR ( Formpro Rating ) has improved 2 lengths at his last 4 starts and he looks set to peak. There are a couple of other solid chances though depending on the runs they get. RP $3, $3.40 FF

Dangers:

8.Wononeohwon has looked good in his short career. Late scratched last week but should be spot on for today.

5.Awatane  showed that he still had a good win in him by the way he closed off last start. Drawn to get all favours.

Race 2

The speed map shows it may suit on pace runners.

Confidence: 2/5 in an open race

7.Cabochon did well last start and she is right at her peak for this. She rates on top after weight adjustments in the Formpro Ratings. Should get a good run on the pace and be a decent eachway chance at good odds. Likely to drift in price too. RP $8, $14 FF

Dangers:

1.Waisake  should have won at this meeting last year but never saw daylight. He is a very good stayer and with 2kgs off, should be hard to beat. But his main aim is the Cup and he is likely to be quite dour for this so is beatable as he will get back and look to grind home.

6.Platinum Spirit drawn to get all favours right at the peak of his form.

2.Southern Ocean  in great form and drawn to get all favours.

Race 3

Confidence: 2/5

4.Hydroexpress  drawn to get all favours and she has been racing well from wider draws, so is an eachway chance here. RP $5.00

Dangers:

5.Marotiri Belle racing very well and if she can cross quickly, will set them a merry chase.’

6.Ceddy Smith rates well from the south and drawn to get a good run.

Race 4

Confidence:3/5

1.Quattro Quinta did very well off a wide run last start. Looks better left handed and drawn to get every chance with Danielle up. His winning time and sectionals at Ellerslie on debut were very good and his action is very good.  1000m is ideal too. RP $1.80, $1.95FF

Dangers:

Ansu and Titled ran 1st and 2nd last start but the time was slow compared to the two other 1000m races on the day. Ansu looks a nice looking galloper but hard to back either of these to beat Quattro Quinta on those runs.

Race 5

The speed map shows early speed out wide and an even tempo likely.

Confidence:2/5 in an open race

3.Guillada looked back to her best last start when charging home for 2nd. She was unlucky in this race last year and with Lisa Allpress up, should get every chance.Rates on top in the Formpro Ratings. RP $4.50, $5.50 FF

Dangers:

5.Times Ticking really got into his work last week and is right on top of his game from a good draw this time.

7.Super Strike is a good horse on a winning weight. Just needs the right run.

Race 6

The speed map show and even tempo.

Confidence: 4/5

1.Brando has just kept getting better and better. His times, sectionals and Formpro ratings show that and also his racing manners. Drawn to get all favours and only very bad luck should beat him. RP $1.50, $1.75 FF

Race 7

The speed map shows a good tempo.

Confidence: 2/5 in a good even race

9.Our Hail Mary has always looked like she could get to the top and she is in the right form to step up against the bigger guns here. Drawn to get a good run with Danielle  ability.up and trainer Allan Sharrock has strong confidence in her. RP $4.20, $5 FF

Dangers:

1.Camino Rocoso is back to his best. If One of The Best doesn’t take him on, then he could steal it.

2.Hunta Pence is in top form running good time. Drawn to get all favours and very fit.

Race 8

The speed map shows and even tempo and Avantage will need luck to get in with cover.

Confidence: 3/5

8.Avantage won this race last year at WFA. So at WFA again, in the form she is in, despite the wide draw, she should be too good again despite looking like she may get caught wide in the open – Danielle is just unlikely to get caught there. At Ellerslie she was a bit fresh and still won well. She will be even better for that and the only negative she may not be as sharp as she was at Ellerslie. RP $1.80, $1.65 and may get out by race time, so if considering a good go at her, wait.

Dangers:

1.Tavi Mac is in top form and just gives his best every time. If there is a chink in the favourite’s armour he can beat her.

9.Spring Heat ran 3rd in this last year from a wide draw and has drawn to get a better run this time.

10.Wekaforce drawn to get all favours on the pace and can place from there.

Race 9

Confidence:1/5 in an open race

9.Gerda looked very good winning fresh up. She drops back from R74 grade with 2kgs off and has drawn to get a good run 3 back inner with Samantha Collett on. RP $5

Dangers:

13.Rip Us Off  looked good winning fresh up and there were a few barrels of cash to say he would do it too. Steps up here but had to be good to win off the moderate tempo last start and is likely to have improved with that.

10.Ruby Rocks ran an improver’s second last start and drawn to get the right run.

11.Tabata is a nice galloper and ran a game second on a track she didn’t like last start. Peaking now but $2.20 is too short in this good field.

8.Ataahua Deamtime if ridden colder can win- he is being raced too handy.

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!