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Wednesday 20 January preview below

Te Rapa

Good morning,

Firstly, thanks to the people who completed our survey last week. There was an excellent response. We seem to be doing a few things right but there are some areas where we need to tidy up. I’ll go through those over the next few days and post our responses to them. It can only make the site more enjoyable for you.

Te Rapa had 11.5mm of rain last night and a few showers are forecast for today, so it is unlikely to improve. Probably looking around a 1.11.5 track for 1200m. The rail is out 7m. It was out 3m at their last meeting on December 19 on a Dead 4. It usually favours runners in the first half of the field but of course, the tempo is the bigger factor.

Tuppence does look well placed as does Lilikoi, but the track condition is the key factor for her, so wait till closer to her race before backing her. Rock My Heart looks capable of winning a maiden race.

The last quaddie looks tough so go wide.

Suggested late quaddie for 10% $30  $35.20 returned

R8   1 Late scratched – goes on to sub which was Red Hussar the winner. , 2, 4, 5, 8
R9   3, 9, 10, 12, 19
R10   1, 8, 9
R11   2, 9, 10, 15

Bet of the day Race 4 6.Tuppence $4.60 FF Missed on the wet track.

Value bet of the day Race 9 3.Rock My Heart $6 FF Late scratched

Race 1

The speed map shows early speed from the inside and outer so an even tempo likely suiting all runners.

Confidence: 2/5

6.Jakkalbomb  game second here behind the smart Elephant rating an FR 109 which is 4 lengths better than any of these have done in their last two starts and she gets in on the minimum of 54kgs after the 2kg allowance. Not so good right handed last start when working early and hung out on the last corner but still did ok to be 2.4L off the winner. If she can get 2nd outer without doing too much, has to be the one the favourite has to run down. She rates on top after weight adjustments in the Formpro Ratings.RP $5, $7 Ff

Danger:

8.Les Crayeres  has looked good in her last two wins and won in good time last start. Has the breeding to win more and drawn to get a winning run with Danielle up. The negatives are she is up in class against some handy R74 horses and both wins came right handed.

 

Race 4

The speed map shows Iridessa and Shocking Penny likely to share an even tempo.

Confidence: 2/5

5.Tuppence last start at Tauranga stepped up to a middle distance ( Breeding suggests this will be her forte ) for the first time and ran a top second. She worked a bit early from a wide draw to get 2nd outer and shared an even tempo and was only run down late. She didn’t seem that happy right handed as well. So she should be peaking nicely from the Tony Pike stable for this, plus she has drawn the ace and has the early pace to make the most of it. Maps to get a winning run in the first four and gets 1kg off. The way she drops her head and her galloping action all adds up to a horse well placed to win. Rates equally on top after weight adjustments. Dead to slow track ok. RP $3.50, $4.60

Dangers:

1.Vulture Street and 8. Sardonia are in winning form but stepping up in grade.

Race 8

The speed map shows Sagunto setting a moderate tempo suiting on pace runners.

Confidence: 2/5

1.Lilikoi – whatever way you look at this, she does look well placed to win again. She got all favours last start, but looked the winner well out and was too strong. You would expect her to have been kept right up to the mark after that and from the draw, maps to land in the first four and with a moderate tempo likely, does look the obvious one. The only niggle is the Dead 6 track. It may well be worse than that after the rain last night. But with the 4kgs off, putting her just 1.5kgs above the minimum, if they are running no worse than 1.12 for the 1200m races, then she does look the one. RP $2.60, $3 FF

Dangers:

If the track is chopping out a bit then for the quaddie include 2.Shezathinka, 4.Zoltan, 5.Sagunto and 8.Kiwianna

Race 8

Confidence: 2/5

3.Rock My Heart last start was putting in strong late strides at Ellerslie in the best last 200m, 600m and 800m of the race. Peaking now and drawn to get a good run. RP $5, $6.00 backed in from $8FF

Dangers:

10.Vistock  had the race taken off him last start after running out late. Leith Innes jumps back on and knows him well, so may sort him out down the straight.

19.Massir 1st $3  looked good taking ground off the smart Force Of Will last start ( won again last Friday) Her sectionals say she will win at least a maiden but the negative is she raced keenly over that 1400m and this will be a slower tempo over 1600m, so is likely to do the same again, which makes her beatable. Jamie Richards may well have ironed that out but it is a big negative for a favourite second up.

12.Missouri  did very well 3 wide in the open for 3rd to Vistock last start. Drawn better here.

9.Allbright  did well fresh up and drawn to get a winning run with a good weight.

Race 10

1.Sacred Command looks the obvious one but drawn out with two nice fillies drawn to get winning runs: 8.Margaret Jean and 9.Travelling Katie. Any one of the three can win this.

Race 11

9.Zendora  pushed Volitivo two starts back and she was an unlucky third in R65 company next up. Three wide in a smart field last start. Drawn to get a good run. RP $4

Dangers:

10.Caroline Reaper 1st $5 ran a top second to the smart Campionessa on debut who has won again since. Ran home in the fastest last 200m for 8th second up. 1600m suits third up.

15.Oh To Be  has had no luck in her last two ruins. Has ability. Blinkers go on

2.Brazier  good run last in very good sectionals.

 

About Neil Davis

Neil is New Zealand's leading form analyst with particular expertise in the area of horse racing sectional times. He has had a life time interest in racing. The Formpro website first started back in 2008 - 10 years ago!